TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “germany · cura · ao” (49 markets)
Top terms: germanycuraaoscoreexactmarkets
- Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?1.4¢ YES · $3.26M 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao?0.7¢ YES · $98.6k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao?1.1¢ YES · $144.5k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao?1.5¢ YES · $156.9k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $51.2k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao?4.3¢ YES · $88.4k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao?1.9¢ YES · $141.9k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Curaçao?0.9¢ YES · $81.5k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao?9.5¢ YES · $212.2k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao?4.0¢ YES · $147.4k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao?0.6¢ YES · $84.9k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 2 - 3 Curaçao?0.5¢ YES · $35.6k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao?13.0¢ YES · $355.0k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao?5.5¢ YES · $199.9k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao?0.6¢ YES · $76.2k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Curaçao?0.4¢ YES · $61.6k 24h
- Exact Score: Any Other Score?58.5¢ YES · $66.1k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.585.5¢ YES · $33.6k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.582.5¢ YES · $351.3k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.528.0¢ YES · $55.3k 24h
- Germany to score first vs. Curaçao?92.5¢ YES · $28.5k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first?1.0¢ YES · $28.1k 24h
- Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?98.6¢ YES · $2.87M 24h
- Kai Havertz: 1+ goals60.0¢ YES · $31.4k 24h
- Curaçao leading at halftime?2.6¢ YES · $72.5k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime?14.5¢ YES · $41.3k 24h
- Germany leading at halftime?83.0¢ YES · $293.0k 24h
- Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?0.6¢ YES · $6.70M 24h
- Spread: Curaçao (-1.5)0.7¢ YES · $66.7k 24h
- Spread: Germany (-1.5)93.5¢ YES · $335.7k 24h
- Spread: Germany (-2.5)80.5¢ YES · $411.5k 24h
- Spread: Germany (-3.5)60.5¢ YES · $4.92M 24h
- Spread: Germany (-4.5)38.5¢ YES · $598.7k 24h
- Spread: Germany (-5.5)24.5¢ YES · $1.00M 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.530.5¢ YES · $112.9k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.597.0¢ YES · $58.9k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.591.5¢ YES · $62.0k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.579.0¢ YES · $80.5k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.552.0¢ YES · $107.0k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.598.9¢ YES · $114.7k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.592.5¢ YES · $95.6k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.591.5¢ YES · $517.3k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.575.5¢ YES · $392.8k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.555.5¢ YES · $1.05M 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.526.5¢ YES · $100.4k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.515.5¢ YES · $76.3k 24h
- ★ Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.58.5¢ YES · $120.0k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.52.5¢ YES · $28.0k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.51.5¢ YES · $108.8k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -4.832 | 93 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.804 | 93 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.666 | 93 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.556 | 93 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.483 | 93 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.464 | 93 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.247 | 93 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.146 | 93 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-total-7pt5 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
116.55%
max drawdown
10.53%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
3.87%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.03%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
10.53%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
2.33
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
2.33
upside/downside
roll spread
7.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
646
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-total-7pt5/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →