POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · GERMANY VS. CURAÇAO - MORE MARKETS

Spread: Germany (-5.5)

YES · live
22.5¢
NO · live
77.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-spread-home-5pt5 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
525.38%
max drawdown
16.28%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
7.72%
RMS drawdown
pain index
5.41%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
16.28%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.42
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.42
upside/downside
roll spread
7.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
500
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-spread-home-5pt5/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
22.5¢
NO · live
77.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.1852 · σ=0.0187 · range [0.1650, 0.2450] · R²=0.356▲ RISING +28.57%σ HIGH 10.12%LAST 0.22500.24500.22500.20500.18500.1650μ = 0.1852max 0.2450min 0.1650dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.36μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 22.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 22.5%NO 77.5%NO77.5%77.50¢ · odds 1/1.29
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.769 / 1.00 bits (77%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
22.5%22.5¢4.44×▬ +0.00pp
NO
77.5%77.5¢1.29×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=2,300 · μ=95.8 · σ=98.8 · CV=1.03BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=170100200300400μ = 9640050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 2300bp moved · peak 400bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2ms
▲YES mid
22.50¢ (22.50%)
▼NO mid
77.50¢ (77.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$577.5k
≋liquidity $
$110.4k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1852 · σ=0.0187 · range [0.1650, 0.2450] · R²=0.356▲ RISING +28.57%σ HIGH 10.12%LAST 0.22500.24500.22500.20500.18500.1650μ = 0.1852max 0.2450min 0.1650dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.36μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 22.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8146 · σ=0.0188 · range [0.7550, 0.8350] · R²=0.357▼ FALLING -6.06%σ NORMAL 2.31%LAST 0.77500.83500.81500.79500.77500.7550μ = 0.8146max 0.8350min 0.7550dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.36μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 77.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0027 · σ=0.0130 · skew=0.75 (right-skewed) · kurt=0.36 (mesokurtic)543102-1.70ppbin -1.70pp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -1.70pp · n=2 · 40.0% peak3-1.10ppbin -1.10pp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -1.10pp · n=3 · 60.0% peak4-0.50ppbin -0.50pp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -0.50pp · n=4 · 80.0% peak50.10ppbin 0.10pp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 0.10pp · n=5 · 100.0% peak50.70ppbin 0.70pp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 0.70pp · n=5 · 100.0% peak21.30ppbin 1.30pp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 1.30pp · n=2 · 40.0% peak1.90pp22.50ppbin 2.50pp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 2.50pp · n=2 · 40.0% peak3.10pp13.70ppbin 3.70pp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 3.70pp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.89 · kurt=1.04 · near 17 / mid 7 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=2.60)
μ MEAN18.52¢95% CI: [17.79¢, 19.25¢]
σ STD DEV1.87ppσ² = 3.510 · CV = 10.12%
med MEDIAN18.00¢Q₁ 17.50¢ · Q₃ 18.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 8.00pp · IQR 1.00pp (1.349σ→2.53pp)
min 16.50¢Q₁ 17.50¢med 18.00¢Q₃ 18.50¢max 24.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.777right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.597leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.28
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 2.53
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.27
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.141within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.125lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.965strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+3.567significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.965
H = 0.965STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=4
k=1-0.141k=2-0.125k=3+0.161k=4 ★-0.426k=5+0.1870+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.57)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.57)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2528682
SLUGfifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-spread-home-5pt5
CATEGORYGermany vs. Curaçao - More Markets
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (78¢)
PRIMARY · YES22.50¢implied prob 22.50% · decimal odds 4.44×
COUNTER · NO77.50¢implied prob 77.50% · decimal odds 1.29×
22.50¢
77.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME577.51k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY110.36k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (78¢)|primary − counter| = 0.550 · entropy 0.769 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 22.5%NO 77.5%YES p̂22.5%H = 0.769 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES4.44×(23¢)NO1.29×(78¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.769 bits (77% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-14 17:00 UTC
0days
01hrs
01min
1.0 hours·θ = 9.178 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 22.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 77.5%)
current: $0.2250 · expected return per side: $0.78 on YES hit · $0.23 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+0.5hRESOLVESP projection · σ=1.87% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 9.178 pp/day
now1.03h left
9.178 pp/day×1.00
−25%0.77h left
10.598 pp/day×1.15
−50%0.51h left
12.980 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.26h left
18.356 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.10h left
29.024 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 4.00% · worst -2.00% · typical |Δ| 0.96%MILD BULLISH +5.00%BEST+4.00%22hWORST-2.00%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.96%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+5.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.14% · Σ +1.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.13% · Σ +1.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.62% · Σ +5.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +5.00%+7.00%-1.00%-0.50% · 1h-0.50% · 1h-0.50%1h1.00% · 2h1.00% · 2h1.00%2h-0.50% · 3h-0.50% · 3h-0.50%3h0.50% · 4h0.50% · 4h0.50%4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.50% · 7h0.50% · 7h0.50%7h-1.00% · 8h-1.00% · 8h-1.00%8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h-1.00% · 10h-1.00% · 10h-1.00%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h2.50% · 12h2.50% · 12h2.50%12h-0.50% · 13h-0.50% · 13h-0.50%13h0.50% · 14h0.50% · 14h0.50%14h0.50% · 15h0.50% · 15h0.50%15h-2.00% · 16h-2.00% · 16h-2.00%16h▼ WORST1.00% · 17h1.00% · 17h1.00%17h-1.00% · 18h-1.00% · 18h-1.00%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h1.00% · 20h1.00% · 20h1.00%20h-0.50% · 21h-0.50% · 21h-0.50%21h4.00% · 22h4.00% · 22h4.00%22h★ BEST2.50% · 23h2.50% · 23h2.50%23h-2.00% · 24h-2.00% · 24h-2.00%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+5.00%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 1BREADTH42% up · 38% down · 21% flat
10 up bars · 9 down · best 4.00% · worst -2.00% · typical |Δ| 0.958%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +4.90%FINAL+4.90%MAX DD-2.01%RECOVERYONGOING · 6 barsMAX RUN-UP+7.04%UNDERWATER18/25 (72%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0490 · peak 1.0704 · range [0.9899, 1.0704]1.07040.9899break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0704UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.01% · moderate0%-2.01%▼ TROUGH -2.01%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 6 total#1 -2.01%bar 17-22 · 6 bars · recovered#2 -2.00%bar 25-25 · 1 bars · ONGOING#3 -1.99%bar 9-12 · 4 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.01%)RECOVERYongoing · 9 barsTIME UNDER WATER72% of session · 18/25 bars
final equity 1.0490 (4.90%) · max DD -2.01% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −7 (53% positive) · μ=6.30 · σ=26.37MIXED EDGELAST 36.11 (+1.13σ vs μ)48.6624.330.00-24.33-48.66μ = 6.3013.3413.3444.6244.62-13.34-13.340.000.00-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.2112.0812.080.000.0019.2719.2725.7625.7610.6010.6020.7220.72-20.72-20.72-13.86-13.86-6.50-6.50-19.95-19.9539.4039.4048.6648.6636.1136.11v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 36.105 · range [-38.21, 48.66] · μ 6.303 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=108.1630 · σ=45.6122 · range [49.0816, 202.1880] · R²=0.747▲ RISING +269.57%σ EXTREME 42.17%LAST 202.1880202.1880163.9114125.634887.358249.0816μ = 108.1630max 202.1880min 49.0816dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.75μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 202.19% · range [49.08%, 202.19%] · μ 108.16% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.364 · σ=0.227MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.173 (+0.84σ vs μ)0.7850.3920.000-0.392-0.785μ = -0.364-0.785-0.785-0.591-0.591-0.394-0.394-0.333-0.333-0.367-0.367-0.500-0.500-0.023-0.023-0.147-0.147-0.246-0.246-0.299-0.299-0.256-0.256-0.341-0.341-0.637-0.637-0.636-0.636-0.579-0.579-0.482-0.482-0.232-0.2320.1080.108-0.173-0.173v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.173 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
6.1331
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0466
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
8.5735
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1261
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.2547
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6479
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.1433
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0321
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (15 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4645
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0497
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.8189
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4128
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.751 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.81e-4 · top T=2.67h (34.5%) · top-3 cover 61.3%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)7.5e-45.6e-43.8e-41.9e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 7.25e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 7.25e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.38e-4 · 6.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.38e-4 · 6.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.29e-4 · 15.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.29e-4 · 15.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.00e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.00e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.53e-4 · 11.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.53e-4 · 11.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.35e-4 · 6.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.35e-4 · 6.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.21e-4 · 10.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.21e-4 · 10.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.17e-4 · 5.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.17e-4 · 5.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.50e-4 · 34.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.50e-4 · 34.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.50e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.50e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.18e-5 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.18e-5 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.33e-33 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.33e-33 · 0.0% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.67h#2T=8.00h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 34.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.173e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (500 bars · effective 1753005 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.397pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.97ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1798 · n = 500✓ n = 500
μ per bar
+0.008pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.397pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
1.94pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.97pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.1798
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
23.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.64pp · ES₉₅ 0.81pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.008pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 500
VaR 95%
0.64pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.81pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
16.3pp
peak 21.5¢ → trough 18.0¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
22.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
4.444
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+344
$100 wins $344
FractionalUK
3.44 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$344.44
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 22.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.769 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.769 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
2.15 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.37 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
51063060908286597926532881227165868068173352304157998568507334654137146139080
NO token ID
86310124512253071419268593198760768012012730401972982989761564283616588398014
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 15:58:26 UTC
Snapshot age
2ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 15:58:26 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
f1da7e6502094a9b6667d638428fbcecdda8fc719e188160a7df4326b5cfea9e · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.5¢HL PREDSpain89.9¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,999.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,662.75HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.27

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Germany vs. Curaçao - More Markets

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.225000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
444.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.223
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.352
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-spread-home-5pt5/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.230000222.22bp0.2300001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.2776102338.22bp0.3000007FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.4416579629.21bp0.99000033PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.220000222.22bp0.2200001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1838811827.52bp0.1400008FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.1245734463.42bp0.01000021PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 500 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
2567.94%
σ per bar = 0.019395
Mean return (annualised)
65548.33%
μ per bar = 0.000374
Sharpe (rf=0)
25.53
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
16.28%
peak 0.21 → trough 0.18 over 50 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-spread-home-5pt5/risk · same metrics, JSON