HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ETH

ETH-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-eth · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.87%
realized vol (ann.)
18.90%
max drawdown
0.77%
sharpe
-80.76
ulcer index
0.39%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.32%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.01%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-3879.98
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.74%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.87
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2072.16
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.87
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.87%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 5.1bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-eth/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH92ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$1665.7
24h Δ · live
-0.87%
24h vol · live
$679.6M
ETH · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=1677.2480 · σ=4.6960 · range [1665.6000, 1685.8000] · R²=0.285▼ FALLING -0.71%σ LOW 0.28%LAST 1665.60001685.80001680.75001675.70001670.65001665.6000μ = 1677.2480max 1685.8000min 1665.6000dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.29μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $1665.60
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=407,534 · μ=16301.4 · σ=38612.0 · CV=2.37BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=18049,17998,358147,537196,715μ = 16301196,715.47550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 196715 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
92ms
$mark $
$1,665.65
$mid $
$1,665.65
◉prev-day close
$1,680.3
Δ24h Δ %
-0.872%
$24h vol $
$679.60M
◐open interest $
$1.22B
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=1677.2480 · σ=4.6960 · range [1665.6000, 1685.8000] · R²=0.285▼ FALLING -0.71%σ LOW 0.28%LAST 1665.60001685.80001680.75001675.70001670.65001665.6000μ = 1677.2480max 1685.8000min 1665.6000dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.29μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $1665.6500 · 24h -0.87% · range $[1665.6000, 1685.8000]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [1664.9000, 1696.4000] · σ=4.6960 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=38%BEARISH -0.86%CLOSE 1665.6000 vs OPEN 1680.1000 (-0.86%)&#9660; CLOSE 1665.60001696.40001688.52501680.65001672.77501664.9000μ close = 1677.2480O1680.100 H1680.800 L1676.000 C1677.500 (-0.15%)O1680.100 H1680.800 L1676.000 C1677.500 (-0.15%)O1677.300 H1680.800 L1677.000 C1679.300 (+0.12%)O1677.300 H1680.800 L1677.000 C1679.300 (+0.12%)O1679.300 H1685.800 L1678.000 C1681.700 (+0.14%)O1679.300 H1685.800 L1678.000 C1681.700 (+0.14%)O1681.700 H1681.700 L1670.300 C1676.200 (-0.33%)O1681.700 H1681.700 L1670.300 C1676.200 (-0.33%)O1676.200 H1677.700 L1672.700 C1673.800 (-0.14%)O1676.200 H1677.700 L1672.700 C1673.800 (-0.14%)O1673.800 H1681.800 L1673.600 C1677.600 (+0.23%)O1673.800 H1681.800 L1673.600 C1677.600 (+0.23%)O1677.500 H1679.400 L1675.100 C1677.900 (+0.02%)O1677.500 H1679.400 L1675.100 C1677.900 (+0.02%)O1677.800 H1677.800 L1674.300 C1675.600 (-0.13%)O1677.800 H1677.800 L1674.300 C1675.600 (-0.13%)0.6%O1675.500 H1696.400 L1673.900 C1685.800 (+0.61%)O1675.500 H1696.400 L1673.900 C1685.800 (+0.61%)O1685.700 H1685.900 L1680.900 C1681.100 (-0.27%)O1685.700 H1685.900 L1680.900 C1681.100 (-0.27%)O1681.000 H1683.500 L1677.300 C1680.300 (-0.04%)O1681.000 H1683.500 L1677.300 C1680.300 (-0.04%)O1680.400 H1682.800 L1678.000 C1681.400 (+0.06%)O1680.400 H1682.800 L1678.000 C1681.400 (+0.06%)O1681.400 H1689.600 L1679.700 C1683.300 (+0.11%)O1681.400 H1689.600 L1679.700 C1683.300 (+0.11%)O1683.300 H1685.100 L1680.900 C1681.800 (-0.09%)O1683.300 H1685.100 L1680.900 C1681.800 (-0.09%)O1681.800 H1682.700 L1679.200 C1681.100 (-0.04%)O1681.800 H1682.700 L1679.200 C1681.100 (-0.04%)O1681.100 H1682.000 L1675.700 C1677.300 (-0.23%)O1681.100 H1682.000 L1675.700 C1677.300 (-0.23%)O1677.300 H1678.400 L1673.700 C1677.700 (+0.02%)O1677.300 H1678.400 L1673.700 C1677.700 (+0.02%)O1677.300 H1682.600 L1673.400 C1675.800 (-0.09%)O1677.300 H1682.600 L1673.400 C1675.800 (-0.09%)O1675.900 H1676.600 L1673.000 C1675.200 (-0.04%)O1675.900 H1676.600 L1673.000 C1675.200 (-0.04%)O1675.200 H1677.900 L1673.900 C1674.900 (-0.02%)O1675.200 H1677.900 L1673.900 C1674.900 (-0.02%)O1674.900 H1678.500 L1668.400 C1677.900 (+0.18%)O1674.900 H1678.500 L1668.400 C1677.900 (+0.18%)O1677.900 H1678.000 L1672.500 C1672.600 (-0.32%)O1677.900 H1678.000 L1672.500 C1672.600 (-0.32%)O1672.600 H1676.400 L1671.800 C1673.400 (+0.05%)O1672.600 H1676.400 L1671.800 C1673.400 (+0.05%)O1673.400 H1674.100 L1664.900 C1666.400 (-0.42%)O1673.400 H1674.100 L1664.900 C1666.400 (-0.42%)O1666.400 H1668.500 L1665.400 C1665.600 (-0.05%)O1666.400 H1668.500 L1665.400 C1665.600 (-0.05%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=407,534 · μ=16301.4 · σ=38612.0 · CV=2.37BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=18049,17998,358147,537196,715μ = 163016,247.611 · 3.2% peak6,247.611 · 3.2% peak1,861.883 · 0.9% peak1,861.883 · 0.9% peak33,461.231 · 17.0% peak33,461.231 · 17.0% peak17,583.573 · 8.9% peak17,583.573 · 8.9% peak7,397.133 · 3.8% peak7,397.133 · 3.8% peak6,165.645 · 3.1% peak6,165.645 · 3.1% peak2,465.886 · 1.3% peak2,465.886 · 1.3% peak5,946.738 · 3.0% peak5,946.738 · 3.0% peak20,334.645 · 10.3% peak20,334.645 · 10.3% peak9,262.757 · 4.7% peak9,262.757 · 4.7% peak10,252.031 · 5.2% peak10,252.031 · 5.2% peak2,221.285 · 1.1% peak2,221.285 · 1.1% peak4,119.249 · 2.1% peak4,119.249 · 2.1% peak1,582.392 · 0.8% peak1,582.392 · 0.8% peak988.029 · 0.5% peak988.029 · 0.5% peak6,889.248 · 3.5% peak6,889.248 · 3.5% peak3,985.059 · 2.0% peak3,985.059 · 2.0% peak196,715.475196,715.475 · 100.0% peak196,715.475 · 100.0% peak8,394.003 · 4.3% peak8,394.003 · 4.3% peak5,206.208 · 2.6% peak5,206.208 · 2.6% peak33,882.903 · 17.2% peak33,882.903 · 17.2% peak5,946.8 · 3.0% peak5,946.8 · 3.0% peak2,705.132 · 1.4% peak2,705.132 · 1.4% peak11,639.419 · 5.9% peak11,639.419 · 5.9% peak2,279.485 · 1.2% peak2,279.485 · 1.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 407534 · peak 196715 · CV 2.37

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0002 · σ=0.0020 · skew=0.67 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.29 (leptokurtic (fat tails))54310 1-37.64bpbin -37.64bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -37.64bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 3-29.09bpbin -29.09bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -29.09bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 1-20.54bpbin -20.54bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -20.54bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 4-11.99bpbin -11.99bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -11.99bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 5-3.44bpbin -3.44bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -3.44bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 45.11bpbin 5.11bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 5.11bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 413.66bpbin 13.66bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 13.66bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 122.21bpbin 22.21bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 22.21bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak30.76bp39.31bp47.86bp 156.41bpbin 56.41bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 56.41bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.72 · kurt=1.58 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$1,665.65
Mid price
$1,665.65
24h change
-0.87%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$1,680.3

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.71)
μ MEAN1677.2480$95% CI: [1675.4072$, 1679.0888$]
σ STD DEV4.6960$σ² = 22.053 · CV = 0.28%
med MEDIAN1677.6000$Q₁ 1675.2000$ · Q₃ 1681.1000$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 20.2000$ · IQR 5.9000$ (1.349σ→6.3349$)
min 1665.6000$Q₁ 1675.2000$med 1677.6000$Q₃ 1681.1000$max 1685.8000$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.708left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.413mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.07
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.07
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.30
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-12.91
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.029663%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.138
σᵣ STD / h0.214990%σ²ᵣ = 0.046×10⁻⁴ · CV = 7.25×
σ ANNUALISED20.12%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.215%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-12.91negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-13.64downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.77right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.26leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.06
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-259.85%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKMODERATE · 95% VaR 0.33%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.326%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.398%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.373%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.20%16h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.326%VaR₉₉−0.398%ES₉₅−0.373%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 16h duration
PEAK168580.00$
−1.20% drawdown over 16h
166560.00$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.15× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.22× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.21% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
36.1 · neutral
Bollinger %B
-0.067 · below lower band
Bollinger upper
$1687.3116
Bollinger MA
$1677.1350
Bollinger lower
$1666.9584

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.33 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.329within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.009lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.612persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.031significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.612
H = 0.612PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.329k=2-0.009k=3+0.081k=4+0.049k=5-0.2700+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.03)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.33 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.55high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.03)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$679.60M
Open interest (USD)
$1.22B
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.56x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.61% · worst -0.42% · typical |Δ| 0.16%MILD BEARISH -0.71%BEST+0.61%21hWORST-0.42%12hTYPICAL |Δ|0.16%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.71%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.30%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.32%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.08%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.71%+0.49%-0.71%0.11% · 14h0.11% · 14h0.11%14h0.14% · 15h0.14% · 15h0.14%15h-0.33% · 16h-0.33% · 16h-0.33%16h-0.14% · 17h-0.14% · 17h-0.14%17h0.23% · 18h0.23% · 18h0.23%18h0.02% · 19h0.02% · 19h0.02%19h-0.14% · 20h-0.14% · 20h-0.14%20h0.61% · 21h0.61% · 21h0.61%21h★ BEST-0.28% · 22h-0.28% · 22h-0.28%22h-0.05% · 23h-0.05% · 23h-0.05%23h0.07% · 00h0.07% · 00h0.07%00h0.11% · 01h0.11% · 01h0.11%01h-0.09% · 02h-0.09% · 02h-0.09%02h-0.04% · 03h-0.04% · 03h-0.04%03h-0.23% · 04h-0.23% · 04h-0.23%04h0.02% · 05h0.02% · 05h0.02%05h-0.11% · 06h-0.11% · 06h-0.11%06h-0.04% · 07h-0.04% · 07h-0.04%07h-0.02% · 08h-0.02% · 08h-0.02%08h0.18% · 09h0.18% · 09h0.18%09h-0.32% · 10h-0.32% · 10h-0.32%10h0.05% · 11h0.05% · 11h0.05%11h-0.42% · 12h-0.42% · 12h-0.42%12h▼ WORST-0.05% · 13h-0.05% · 13h-0.05%13hTIME PATTERNuniform across sessionsRUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 0.61% · worst -0.42% · typical |Δ| 0.157%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.71%)FINAL-0.71%MAX DD-1.20%RECOVERYONGOING · 16 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.49%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9929 · peak 1.0049 · range [0.9929, 1.0049]1.00490.9929break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0049UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.20% · moderate0%-1.20%▼ TROUGH -1.20%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.20%bar 10-25 · 16 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.47%bar 4-8 · 5 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.20%)RECOVERYongoing · 16 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9929 (-0.71%) · max DD -1.20% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-18.89 · σ=30.64MIXED EDGELAST -39.49 (-0.67σ vs μ)87.7043.850.00-43.85-87.70μ = -18.891.811.81-16.76-16.7611.3811.3814.0814.0819.2319.2311.5911.5916.4016.4019.1919.19-31.77-31.77-29.49-29.49-19.79-19.79-44.46-44.46-87.70-87.70-71.89-71.89-21.89-21.89-26.74-26.74-24.11-24.11-38.55-38.55-39.49-39.49v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -39.490 · range [-87.70, 19.23] · μ -18.893 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=19.1321 · σ=8.0988 · range [8.0300, 31.2343] · R²=0.270▲ RISING +10.41%σ EXTREME 42.33%LAST 21.248231.234325.433219.632213.83118.0300μ = 19.1321max 31.2343min 8.0300dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.27μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 21.25% · range [8.03%, 31.23%] · μ 19.13% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.343 · σ=0.257MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.515 (-0.67σ vs μ)0.7090.3550.000-0.355-0.709μ = -0.343-0.060-0.060-0.192-0.192-0.121-0.121-0.613-0.613-0.517-0.517-0.543-0.543-0.549-0.549-0.347-0.3470.1170.1170.1080.108-0.026-0.026-0.389-0.389-0.709-0.709-0.572-0.572-0.132-0.132-0.444-0.444-0.582-0.582-0.437-0.437-0.515-0.515v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.515 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
7.4616
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0240
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.6016
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3468
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.1181
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7081
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.5732
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5665
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4595
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0515
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.6041
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1087
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.512 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.38e-6 · top T=2.00h (35.4%) · top-3 cover 64.1%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.3e-51.7e-51.1e-55.7e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.80e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.80e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.33e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.33e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.15e-7 · 0.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.15e-7 · 0.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.47e-6 · 8.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.47e-6 · 8.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.90e-6 · 2.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.90e-6 · 2.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.24e-6 · 5.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.24e-6 · 5.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.97e-6 · 13.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.97e-6 · 13.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.56e-6 · 14.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.56e-6 · 14.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.37e-6 · 5.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.37e-6 · 5.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.68e-6 · 7.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.68e-6 · 7.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.81e-9 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.81e-9 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.28e-5 · 35.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.28e-5 · 35.4% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 35.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.458e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.01%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.01%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-204.83×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -41.63400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.018
annualized -41.63
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -799% · APY -100% · Sharpe -40.45σ ann 20% · Sortino -24.02 · n 4999
-4854%-3879%-2903%-1927%-952%24%-798.9%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)19.7%Ann. vol σ-4045.1%Sharpe (ann)-2402.1%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
159916301660169017201750t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 13:28:47 UTC
Snapshot age
92ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 13:28:47 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
2938872c5316ab2097fa4f72004d210b5ec3c7b33ce47fc7327893998e205869 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?12¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,287.5HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.85HL PERPSOL-USD perpetual$67.61

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$967.70K
bid $647.16K · ask $320.54K
Depth within 5bp
$11.24M
bid $6.48M · ask $4.76M
Depth within 10bp
$28.76M
bid $15.44M · ask $13.32M
Depth within 50bp
$36.93M
bid $21.90M · ask $15.03M
Mid price
1665.650000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
0.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.187
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.334
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-eth/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K1665.700.30bp1665.701FILLED
BUY$10.00K1665.700.30bp1665.701FILLED
BUY$100.00K1665.700.30bp1665.701FILLED
SELL$1.00K1665.600.30bp1665.601FILLED
SELL$10.00K1665.600.30bp1665.601FILLED
SELL$100.00K1665.600.30bp1665.601FILLED

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-eth/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 2 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$1684.00–$1686.001$20.33K
$1682.00–$1684.001$4.12K
$1680.00–$1682.006$57.77K
$1678.00–$1680.001$1.86K
$1676.00–$1678.007$77.22K
$1674.00–$1676.00★4$216.26K
$1672.00–$1674.003$16.05K
$1666.00–$1668.001$11.64K
$1664.00–$1666.001$2.28K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-eth/volprofile?priceStep=2

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.446 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$111.20K
real volume
Sell weight
$290.08K
real volume
Net delta
$178.88K
sellers net
Imbalance
-44.58%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
44.6%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-eth/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 1 found · deepest 0.69% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 12:00:00Z0ms1677.90→1666.400.685%1

/api/asset/hl-eth/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
19.75%
σ per bar = 0.000086
Mean return (annualised)
-798.88%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-40.45
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
0.98%
peak 1681.60 → trough 1665.10 over 3991 bars

/api/asset/hl-eth/risk · same metrics, JSON