POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · GERMANY VS. CURAÇAO

Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?

YES · live
94.4¢
NO · live
5.6¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-ger · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.64%
realized vol (ann.)
20.08%
max drawdown
0.42%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.18%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.12%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.38%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.31
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.31
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.64%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-ger/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
94.4¢
NO · live
5.6¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.9405 · σ=0.0026 · range [0.9375, 0.9455] · R²=0.674▲ RISING +0.64%σ LOW 0.28%LAST 0.94450.94550.94350.94150.93950.9375μ = 0.9405max 0.9455min 0.9375dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.67μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 94.45¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 94.4%NO 5.6%YES94.4%94.45¢ · odds 1/1.06
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.309 / 1.00 bits (31%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
94.4%94.4¢1.06×▬ +0.00pp
NO
5.6%5.6¢18.02×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=240 · μ=10.0 · σ=10.6 · CV=1.06BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=15010203040μ = 104050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 240bp moved · peak 40bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3ms
▲YES mid
94.45¢ (94.45%)
▼NO mid
5.55¢ (5.55%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$2.2M
≋liquidity $
$1.2M
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9405 · σ=0.0026 · range [0.9375, 0.9455] · R²=0.674▲ RISING +0.64%σ LOW 0.28%LAST 0.94450.94550.94350.94150.93950.9375μ = 0.9405max 0.9455min 0.9375dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.67μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 94.45¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0595 · σ=0.0026 · range [0.0545, 0.0625] · R²=0.674▼ FALLING -9.76%σ NORMAL 4.38%LAST 0.05550.06250.06050.05850.05650.0545μ = 0.0595max 0.0625min 0.0545dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.67μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 5.55¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0003 · σ=0.0014 · skew=0.62 (right-skewed) · kurt=-0.14 (mesokurtic)975202-0.17ppbin -0.17pp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin -0.17pp · n=2 · 22.2% peak5-0.11ppbin -0.11pp · n=5 · 55.6% peakbin -0.11pp · n=5 · 55.6% peak-0.05pp90.01ppbin 0.01pp · n=9 · 100.0% peakbin 0.01pp · n=9 · 100.0% peak0.07pp40.13ppbin 0.13pp · n=4 · 44.4% peakbin 0.13pp · n=4 · 44.4% peak20.19ppbin 0.19pp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin 0.19pp · n=2 · 22.2% peak0.25pp10.31ppbin 0.31pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 0.31pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak10.37ppbin 0.37pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 0.37pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.77 · kurt=0.45 · near 15 / mid 9 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.40)
μ MEAN94.05¢95% CI: [93.95¢, 94.16¢]
σ STD DEV0.26ppσ² = 0.068 · CV = 0.28%
med MEDIAN94.05¢Q₁ 93.85¢ · Q₃ 94.25¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.80pp · IQR 0.40pp (1.349σ→0.35pp)
min 93.75¢Q₁ 93.85¢med 94.05¢Q₃ 94.25¢max 94.55¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.365approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.404platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.02
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.88
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.07
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.004within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.281lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.964strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+6.903significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.964
H = 0.964STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.004k=2-0.281k=3-0.117k=4-0.144k=5+0.2050+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.90)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.93very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.90)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1897058
SLUGfifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-ger
CATEGORYGermany vs. Curaçao
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (94¢)
PRIMARY · YES94.45¢implied prob 94.45% · decimal odds 1.06×
COUNTER · NO5.55¢implied prob 5.55% · decimal odds 18.02×
94.45¢
5.55¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME2.21M USD 24h
LIQUIDITY1.18M USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (94¢)|primary − counter| = 0.889 · entropy 0.309 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 94.4%NO 5.6%YES p̂94.4%H = 0.309 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.06×(94¢)NO18.02×(6¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.309 bits (31% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · CRITICALresolves 2026-06-14 17:00 UTC
0days
00hrs
54min
54 minutes·θ = 1.277 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 94.4%)
NO →$0.00(P = 5.6%)
current: $0.9445 · expected return per side: $0.06 on YES hit · $0.94 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+0.5hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.26% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 1.277 pp/day
now0.91h left
1.277 pp/day×1.00
−25%0.68h left
1.474 pp/day×1.15
−50%0.45h left
1.805 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.23h left
2.553 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.09h left
4.037 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.40% · worst -0.20% · typical |Δ| 0.10%MILD BULLISH +0.60%BEST+0.40%12hWORST-0.20%14hTYPICAL |Δ|0.10%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.60%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.05% · Σ +0.40%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.04% · Σ +0.30%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.60%+0.70%-0.10%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h-0.10% · 2h-0.10% · 2h-0.10%2h0.10% · 3h0.10% · 3h0.10%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h-0.10% · 9h-0.10% · 9h-0.10%9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.40% · 12h0.40% · 12h0.40%12h★ BEST0.10% · 13h0.10% · 13h0.10%13h-0.20% · 14h-0.20% · 14h-0.20%14h▼ WORST0.20% · 15h0.20% · 15h0.20%15h0.10% · 16h0.10% · 16h0.10%16h0.10% · 17h0.10% · 17h0.10%17h-0.10% · 18h-0.10% · 18h-0.10%18h-0.20% · 19h-0.20% · 19h-0.20%19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h-0.10% · 21h-0.10% · 21h-0.10%21h0.30% · 22h0.30% · 22h0.30%22h0.20% · 23h0.20% · 23h0.20%23h-0.10% · 24h-0.10% · 24h-0.10%24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.40%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 2BREADTH33% up · 29% down · 38% flat
8 up bars · 7 down · best 0.40% · worst -0.20% · typical |Δ| 0.100%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.60%FINAL+0.60%MAX DD-0.40%RECOVERYONGOING · 5 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.70%UNDERWATER18/25 (72%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0060 · peak 1.0070 · range [0.9990, 1.0070]1.00700.9990break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0070UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.40% · shallow0%-0.40%▼ TROUGH -0.40%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -0.40%bar 19-23 · 5 bars · recovered#2 -0.20%bar 15-16 · 2 bars · recovered#3 -0.10%bar 3-12 · 10 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.40%)RECOVERYongoing · 7 barsTIME UNDER WATER72% of session · 18/25 bars
final equity 1.0060 (0.60%) · max DD -0.40% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +11 / −5 (58% positive) · μ=8.14 · σ=28.88MIXED EDGELAST 8.04 (-0.00σ vs μ)56.2628.130.00-28.13-56.26μ = 8.140.000.000.000.0038.2138.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.2126.5826.5835.6335.6315.1015.1038.2138.2146.8046.8056.2656.2620.7220.72-9.06-9.0610.6010.60-25.76-25.760.000.008.048.048.048.04v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 8.038 · range [-38.21, 56.26] · μ 8.144 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=12.8268 · σ=6.1406 · range [3.8210, 19.3329] · R²=0.497▲ RISING +206.87%σ EXTREME 47.87%LAST 18.164819.332915.454911.57697.69903.8210μ = 12.8268max 19.3329min 3.8210dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.50μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 18.16% · range [3.82%, 19.33%] · μ 12.83% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-0.094 · σ=0.243CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.016 (+0.45σ vs μ)0.5000.2500.000-0.250-0.500μ = -0.094-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.033-0.033-0.033-0.033-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.2330.0160.0160.1010.1010.0100.010-0.249-0.249-0.300-0.300-0.143-0.143-0.422-0.4220.0320.0320.3820.3820.1670.167-0.125-0.1250.2640.2640.0160.016v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.016 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
3.4661
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1767
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.6762
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4577
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.0397
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7371
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.2872
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7740
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (9 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7541
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0092
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.4516
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6515
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.863 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.02e-6 · top T=4.80h (20.6%) · top-3 cover 54.9%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)5.0e-63.7e-62.5e-61.2e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.51e-7 · 1.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.51e-7 · 1.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.14e-6 · 8.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.14e-6 · 8.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.79e-6 · 7.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.79e-6 · 7.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.88e-6 · 16.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.88e-6 · 16.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.99e-6 · 20.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.99e-6 · 20.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.42e-6 · 5.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.42e-6 · 5.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.39e-6 · 9.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.39e-6 · 9.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.75e-7 · 1.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.75e-7 · 1.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.38e-6 · 9.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.38e-6 · 9.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.45e-6 · 18.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.45e-6 · 18.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.01e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.01e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.82e-37 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.82e-37 · 0.0% energy50% by T=4.8h#1 dominantT=4.80h#2T=2.40h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.80h (freq 0.208) · concentrates 20.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.425e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3814 bars · effective 1752908 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.013pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.03ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0506 · n = 3814✓ n = 3814
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.013pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.06pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.03pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0506
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
94.7¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.02pp · ES₉₅ 0.03pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 3814
VaR 95%
0.02pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.03pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
0.4pp
peak 94.5¢ → trough 94.0¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
94.4%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.059
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-1702
risk $1702 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.06 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$5.88
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 94.4%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.309 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.309 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.08 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
4.17 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
80258038883060787104700033663206548991173635281684057844048254140005841868705
NO token ID
29189296422134583759398297483659751799287593435275653082437251361732163196488
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:05:32 UTC
Snapshot age
3ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:05:32 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
80bf6526ba1c1db22411f8e8aba1160e9c9a220cc2f1982d127e258c061193d5 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.5¢HL PREDSpain90.0¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,021.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,663.05HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.34

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Germany vs. Curaçao

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$45.53K
bid $37.35K · ask $8.18K
Depth within 50bp
$1.44M
bid $288.14K · ask $1.15M
Mid price
0.944500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
10.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.663
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.597
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-ger/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.9450005.29bp0.9450001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.9451817.22bp0.9460002FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.94677124.04bp0.9470003FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.9440005.29bp0.9440001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.9440005.29bp0.9440001FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.94281617.83bp0.9410004FILLED

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,814 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
18.51%
σ per bar = 0.000140
Mean return (annualised)
390.21%
μ per bar = 0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
21.08
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
0.42%
peak 0.94 → trough 0.94 over 764 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-ger/risk · same metrics, JSON