POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · GERMANY VS. CURAÇAO - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao?

YES · live
9.5¢
NO · live
90.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-0 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
53.37%
max drawdown
17.39%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
14.47%
RMS drawdown
pain index
13.34%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
17.39%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.50
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.50
upside/downside
roll spread
1.5 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-0/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH7ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
9.5¢
NO · live
90.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.1012 · σ=0.0090 · range [0.0950, 0.1200] · R²=0.009▬ FLATσ HIGH 8.94%LAST 0.09500.12000.11370.10750.10130.0950μ = 0.1012max 0.1200min 0.0950dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 9.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 9.5%NO 90.5%NO90.5%90.50¢ · odds 1/1.10
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.453 / 1.00 bits (45%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
9.5%9.5¢10.53×▬ +0.00pp
NO
90.5%90.5¢1.10×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=1,300 · μ=54.2 · σ=70.6 · CV=1.30BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=11062125187250μ = 5425050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 1300bp moved · peak 250bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
7ms
▲YES mid
9.50¢ (9.50%)
▼NO mid
90.50¢ (90.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$180.6k
≋liquidity $
$91.0k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1012 · σ=0.0090 · range [0.0950, 0.1200] · R²=0.009▬ FLATσ HIGH 8.94%LAST 0.09500.12000.11370.10750.10130.0950μ = 0.1012max 0.1200min 0.0950dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 9.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8988 · σ=0.0090 · range [0.8800, 0.9050] · R²=0.009▬ FLATσ NORMAL 1.01%LAST 0.90500.90500.89880.89250.88620.8800μ = 0.8988max 0.9050min 0.8800dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 90.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0003 · σ=0.0082 · skew=1.27 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.61 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1296301-1.30ppbin -1.30pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin -1.30pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak4-0.90ppbin -0.90pp · n=4 · 33.3% peakbin -0.90pp · n=4 · 33.3% peak2-0.50ppbin -0.50pp · n=2 · 16.7% peakbin -0.50pp · n=2 · 16.7% peak12-0.10ppbin -0.10pp · n=12 · 100.0% peakbin -0.10pp · n=12 · 100.0% peak10.30ppbin 0.30pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin 0.30pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak10.70ppbin 0.70pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin 0.70pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak11.10ppbin 1.10pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin 1.10pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak1.50pp11.90ppbin 1.90pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin 1.90pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak12.30ppbin 2.30pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin 2.30pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.06 · kurt=1.58 · near 12 / mid 12 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.94 intercept=-0.00RIGHT-SKEWED · HEAVY POSITIVE TAILMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.91)
μ MEAN10.12¢95% CI: [9.77¢, 10.47¢]
σ STD DEV0.90ppσ² = 0.818 · CV = 8.94%
med MEDIAN9.50¢Q₁ 9.50¢ · Q₃ 11.00¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 2.50pp · IQR 1.50pp (1.349σ→1.22pp)
min 9.50¢Q₁ 9.50¢med 9.50¢Q₃ 11.00¢max 12.00¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.912right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.823mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.69
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.81
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.76
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.28 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.284within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.095lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.663persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.467fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.663
H = 0.663PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.284k=2-0.095k=3-0.149k=4+0.243k=5-0.1620+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.47)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.28 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.61very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.47)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322398
SLUGfifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-0
CATEGORYGermany vs. Curaçao - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (91¢)
PRIMARY · YES9.50¢implied prob 9.50% · decimal odds 10.53×
COUNTER · NO90.50¢implied prob 90.50% · decimal odds 1.10×
9.50¢
90.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME180.57k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY91.03k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (91¢)|primary − counter| = 0.810 · entropy 0.453 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 9.5%NO 90.5%YES p̂9.5%H = 0.453 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES10.53×(10¢)NO1.10×(91¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.453 bits (45% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · CRITICALresolves 2026-06-14 17:00 UTC
0days
00hrs
48min
48 minutes·θ = 4.432 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 9.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 90.5%)
current: $0.0950 · expected return per side: $0.91 on YES hit · $0.10 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+0.4hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.90% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 4.432 pp/day
now0.80h left
4.432 pp/day×1.00
−25%0.60h left
5.117 pp/day×1.15
−50%0.40h left
6.267 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.20h left
8.863 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.08h left
14.014 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.50% · worst -1.50% · typical |Δ| 0.54%MIXED · 5 UP / 7 DNBEST+2.50%12hWORST-1.50%11hTYPICAL |Δ|0.54%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.19% · Σ +1.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.19% · Σ -1.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.00%+2.50%0.00%1.00% · 1h1.00% · 1h1.00%1h-1.00% · 2h-1.00% · 2h-1.00%2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h2.00% · 8h2.00% · 8h2.00%8h0.50% · 9h0.50% · 9h0.50%9h-1.00% · 10h-1.00% · 10h-1.00%10h-1.50% · 11h-1.50% · 11h-1.50%11h▼ WORST2.50% · 12h2.50% · 12h2.50%12h★ BEST-1.00% · 13h-1.00% · 13h-1.00%13h0.50% · 14h0.50% · 14h0.50%14h-0.50% · 15h-0.50% · 15h-0.50%15h-0.50% · 16h-0.50% · 16h-0.50%16h-1.00% · 17h-1.00% · 17h-1.00%17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.50%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH21% up · 29% down · 50% flat
5 up bars · 7 down · best 2.50% · worst -1.50% · typical |Δ| 0.542%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-0.09%)FINAL-0.09%MAX DD-2.53%RECOVERYONGOING · 15 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.50%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9991 · peak 1.0250 · range [0.9991, 1.0250]1.02500.9991break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0250UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.53% · moderate0%-2.53%▼ TROUGH -2.53%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.53%bar 11-25 · 15 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.00%bar 3-8 · 6 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.53%)RECOVERYongoing · 15 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9991 (-0.09%) · max DD -2.53% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +5 / −8 (26% positive) · μ=-9.86 · σ=34.81UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 0.00 (+0.28σ vs μ)76.4238.210.00-38.21-76.42μ = -9.860.000.00-38.21-38.2138.2138.2148.6848.6823.7023.700.000.0024.4624.4613.8013.800.000.00-10.60-10.60-5.46-5.460.000.00-66.72-66.72-44.62-44.62-76.42-76.42-55.93-55.93-38.21-38.210.000.000.000.00v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.000 · range [-76.42, 48.68] · μ -9.859 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=79.9483 · σ=50.4827 · range [0.0000, 158.6978] · R²=0.187▼ FALLING -100.00%σ EXTREME 63.14%LAST 0.0000158.6978119.023479.348939.67450.0000μ = 79.9483max 158.6978min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.19μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 0.00% · range [0.00%, 158.70%] · μ 79.95% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −14 (16% positive) · μ=-0.154 · σ=0.270MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.000 (+0.57σ vs μ)0.6500.3250.000-0.325-0.650μ = -0.154-0.500-0.500-0.033-0.033-0.033-0.033-0.002-0.002-0.038-0.0380.2670.267-0.151-0.151-0.309-0.309-0.523-0.523-0.503-0.503-0.650-0.650-0.278-0.278-0.467-0.467-0.045-0.0450.1670.1670.2140.214-0.033-0.0330.0000.0000.0000.000v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.000 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
10.3011
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0058
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.8049
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3253
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.6386
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0882
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.7287
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4662
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (8 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1830
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3864
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.3437
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1790
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.591 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=8.14e-5 · top T=2.18h (23.2%) · top-3 cover 51.5%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.3e-41.7e-41.1e-45.7e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.08e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.08e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.70e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.70e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.17e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.17e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.01e-4 · 10.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.01e-4 · 10.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.13e-5 · 5.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.13e-5 · 5.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.35e-4 · 13.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.35e-4 · 13.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.41e-4 · 14.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.41e-4 · 14.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.94e-5 · 6.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.94e-5 · 6.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.58e-5 · 6.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.58e-5 · 6.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.26e-5 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.26e-5 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.27e-4 · 23.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.27e-4 · 23.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.04e-4 · 10.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.04e-4 · 10.7% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.18h#2T=3.43h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 23.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 9.771e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (2811 bars · effective 1752908 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.092pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.23ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0860 · n = 2811✓ n = 2811
μ per bar
-0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.092pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.45pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.23pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0860
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
9.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.15pp · ES₉₅ 0.19pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 2811
VaR 95%
0.15pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.19pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
26.9pp
peak 13.0¢ → trough 9.5¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
9.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
10.526
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+953
$100 wins $953
FractionalUK
9.53 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$952.63
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 9.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.453 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.453 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
3.40 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.14 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
29632788868587544459442235937911142103324160322130433839310316644633738475363
NO token ID
25999694146000390418859508644477260415649418022696046365563988068714989520097
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:11:42 UTC
Snapshot age
7ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:11:42 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
95cd09af17e51667fa26a90195996daa6eefebd448048ae61187975aca845f92 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.5¢HL PREDSpain89.7¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,092.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,664.35HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.38

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Germany vs. Curaçao - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.095000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1052.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.471
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.125
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-0/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.100000526.32bp0.1000001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.1249383151.35bp0.1700008FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.40575332710.87bp0.99000041PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.090000526.32bp0.0900001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0809031483.91bp0.0100007PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0809031483.91bp0.0100007PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 2,811 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1098.05%
σ per bar = 0.008294
Mean return (annualised)
-14573.14%
μ per bar = -0.000083
Sharpe (rf=0)
-13.27
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
26.92%
peak 0.13 → trough 0.10 over 877 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-0/risk · same metrics, JSON