POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · GERMANY VS. CURAÇAO

Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?

YES · live
3.6¢
NO · live
96.4¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-draw · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -7.59%
realized vol (ann.)
18.13%
max drawdown
17.44%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
5.96%
RMS drawdown
pain index
4.92%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
14.97%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.76
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.76
upside/downside
roll spread
1.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-7.59%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change -7.59%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-draw/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH34ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
3.6¢
NO · live
96.4¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0400 · σ=0.0019 · range [0.0355, 0.0435] · R²=0.220▼ FALLING -10.98%σ NORMAL 4.63%LAST 0.03650.04350.04150.03950.03750.0355μ = 0.0400max 0.0435min 0.0355dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.22μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 3.65¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 3.6%NO 96.4%NO96.4%96.35¢ · odds 1/1.04
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.226 / 1.00 bits (23%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
3.6%3.6¢27.40×▬ +0.00pp
NO
96.4%96.4¢1.04×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=365 · μ=15.2 · σ=12.1 · CV=0.80RISING +52% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=14012253750μ = 155050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 365bp moved · peak 50bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
34ms
▲YES mid
3.65¢ (3.65%)
▼NO mid
96.35¢ (96.35%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$1.8M
≋liquidity $
$829.6k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0400 · σ=0.0019 · range [0.0355, 0.0435] · R²=0.220▼ FALLING -10.98%σ NORMAL 4.63%LAST 0.03650.04350.04150.03950.03750.0355μ = 0.0400max 0.0435min 0.0355dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.22μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 3.65¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9600 · σ=0.0018 · range [0.9565, 0.9635] · R²=0.210▲ RISING +0.47%σ LOW 0.18%LAST 0.96350.96350.96170.96000.95830.9565μ = 0.9600max 0.9635min 0.9565dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.21μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 96.35¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0002 · σ=0.0019 · skew=-0.46 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.65 (mesokurtic)653201-0.46ppbin -0.46pp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -0.46pp · n=1 · 16.7% peak-0.38pp2-0.30ppbin -0.30pp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -0.30pp · n=2 · 33.3% peak3-0.22ppbin -0.22pp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -0.22pp · n=3 · 50.0% peak3-0.14ppbin -0.14pp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -0.14pp · n=3 · 50.0% peak-0.06pp60.02ppbin 0.02pp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin 0.02pp · n=6 · 100.0% peak40.10ppbin 0.10pp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin 0.10pp · n=4 · 66.7% peak30.18ppbin 0.18pp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 0.18pp · n=3 · 50.0% peak20.26ppbin 0.26pp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 0.26pp · n=2 · 33.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.54 · kurt=-0.19 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN4.00¢95% CI: [3.93¢, 4.07¢]
σ STD DEV0.19ppσ² = 0.034 · CV = 4.63%
med MEDIAN4.05¢Q₁ 3.85¢ · Q₃ 4.10¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.80pp · IQR 0.25pp (1.349σ→0.25pp)
min 3.55¢Q₁ 3.85¢med 4.05¢Q₃ 4.10¢max 4.35¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.410approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.146mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.28
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.00
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.32
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.25 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.252within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.068lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.813strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.550significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.813
H = 0.813STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.252k=2-0.068k=3-0.167k=4+0.008k=5-0.0570+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.55)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.25 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.88very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.55)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1897059
SLUGfifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-draw
CATEGORYGermany vs. Curaçao
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (96¢)
PRIMARY · YES3.65¢implied prob 3.65% · decimal odds 27.40×
COUNTER · NO96.35¢implied prob 96.35% · decimal odds 1.04×
3.65¢
96.35¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME1.78M USD 24h
LIQUIDITY829.58k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (96¢)|primary − counter| = 0.927 · entropy 0.226 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 3.6%NO 96.4%YES p̂3.6%H = 0.226 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES27.40×(4¢)NO1.04×(96¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.226 bits (23% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · CRITICALresolves 2026-06-14 17:00 UTC
0days
00hrs
54min
54 minutes·θ = 0.907 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 3.6%)
NO →$0.00(P = 96.4%)
current: $0.0365 · expected return per side: $0.96 on YES hit · $0.04 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+0.5hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.19% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 0.907 pp/day
now0.91h left
0.907 pp/day×1.00
−25%0.68h left
1.047 pp/day×1.15
−50%0.45h left
1.282 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.23h left
1.814 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.09h left
2.868 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.30% · worst -0.50% · typical |Δ| 0.15%MILD BEARISH -0.45%BEST+0.30%5hWORST-0.50%22hTYPICAL |Δ|0.15%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.45%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.05%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.10%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.05% · Σ -0.40%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.45%+0.25%-0.55%-0.15% · 1h-0.15% · 1h-0.15%1h0.15% · 2h0.15% · 2h0.15%2h0.05% · 3h0.05% · 3h0.05%3h-0.20% · 4h-0.20% · 4h-0.20%4h0.30% · 5h0.30% · 5h0.30%5h★ BEST0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h-0.20% · 7h-0.20% · 7h-0.20%7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.10% · 11h0.10% · 11h0.10%11h-0.30% · 12h-0.30% · 12h-0.30%12h0.20% · 13h0.20% · 13h0.20%13h-0.20% · 14h-0.20% · 14h-0.20%14h0.10% · 15h0.10% · 15h0.10%15h-0.10% · 16h-0.10% · 16h-0.10%16h0.05% · 17h0.05% · 17h0.05%17h-0.10% · 18h-0.10% · 18h-0.10%18h0.25% · 19h0.25% · 19h0.25%19h0.10% · 20h0.10% · 20h0.10%20h0.20% · 21h0.20% · 21h0.20%21h-0.50% · 22h-0.50% · 22h-0.50%22h▼ WORST-0.30% · 23h-0.30% · 23h-0.30%23h0.10% · 24h0.10% · 24h0.10%24hTIME PATTERNuniform across sessionsRUNSup max 3 · down max 2BREADTH46% up · 38% down · 17% flat
11 up bars · 9 down · best 0.30% · worst -0.50% · typical |Δ| 0.152%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.45%)FINAL-0.45%MAX DD-0.80%RECOVERYONGOING · 3 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.25%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9955 · peak 1.0025 · range [0.9945, 1.0025]1.00250.9945break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0025UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.80% · shallow0%-0.80%▼ TROUGH -0.80%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -0.80%bar 23-25 · 3 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.45%bar 8-21 · 14 bars · recovered#3 -0.20%bar 5-5 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.80%)RECOVERYongoing · 3 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 0.9955 (-0.45%) · max DD -0.80% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +5 / −11 (26% positive) · μ=-2.89 · σ=19.25UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -7.72 (-0.25σ vs μ)42.3921.200.00-21.20-42.39μ = -2.8912.5512.557.937.93-4.20-4.20-8.50-8.509.749.74-15.87-15.87-41.44-41.440.000.00-16.76-16.76-8.04-8.04-15.87-15.87-20.44-20.44-5.21-5.210.000.0034.8834.8842.3942.390.000.00-18.36-18.36-7.72-7.72v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -7.725 · range [-41.44, 42.39] · μ -2.890 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=17.5649 · σ=4.9324 · range [9.2022, 28.3501] · R²=0.210▲ RISING +62.49%σ EXTREME 28.08%LAST 28.350128.350123.563118.776213.98929.2022μ = 17.5649max 28.3501min 9.2022dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.21μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 28.35% · range [9.20%, 28.35%] · μ 17.56% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.388 · σ=0.319MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.113 (+1.57σ vs μ)0.8680.4340.000-0.434-0.868μ = -0.388-0.536-0.536-0.338-0.338-0.412-0.412-0.348-0.3480.0240.024-0.075-0.075-0.245-0.245-0.643-0.643-0.756-0.756-0.816-0.816-0.868-0.868-0.751-0.751-0.726-0.726-0.481-0.481-0.306-0.306-0.133-0.133-0.227-0.2270.1570.1570.1130.113v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.113 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.3522
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5086
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.7906
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7347
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.6360
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0886
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.3683
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0179
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3943
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0796
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.1421
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2534
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.652 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.16e-6 · top T=2.67h (24.3%) · top-3 cover 60.2%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.2e-59.1e-66.1e-63.0e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.16e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.16e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.65e-6 · 5.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.65e-6 · 5.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.57e-6 · 9.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.57e-6 · 9.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.09e-6 · 4.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.09e-6 · 4.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.58e-6 · 13.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.58e-6 · 13.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.76e-6 · 3.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.76e-6 · 3.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.25e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.25e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.91e-6 · 5.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.91e-6 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.21e-5 · 24.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.21e-5 · 24.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.06e-7 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.06e-7 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.18e-6 · 8.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.18e-6 · 8.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.13e-5 · 22.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.13e-5 · 22.7% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.67h#2T=2.00h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 24.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.988e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3812 bars · effective 1752908 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.016pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.04ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0342 · n = 3812✓ n = 3812
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.016pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.08pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.04pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0342
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
3.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.03pp · ES₉₅ 0.03pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 3812
VaR 95%
0.03pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.03pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
18.4pp
peak 4.3¢ → trough 3.5¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
3.6%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
27.397
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+2640
$100 wins $2640
FractionalUK
26.40 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$2639.73
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 3.6%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.226 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.226 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
4.78 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.05 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
43065699114218738643061430368238869232700747238329067809024727726995177258597
NO token ID
70361345364071436882740201217779608050753190101468453278134436864619706671216
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:05:35 UTC
Snapshot age
34ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:05:35 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
02e4f97f32f588d7cab430ee3fbaff15a0a3cb9fbe7ceb11e95e8ecc8d72c198 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.5¢HL PREDSpain90.0¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,026.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,663.05HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.34

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Germany vs. Curaçao

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.036500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
274.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.024
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.353
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-draw/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.037814359.95bp0.0380002FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.038000411.02bp0.0390003FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.09675716508.72bp0.96000077FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.036000136.99bp0.0360001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.033132922.62bp0.0310006FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0284232212.99bp0.00100029PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,812 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
533.23%
σ per bar = 0.004027
Mean return (annualised)
-4910.90%
μ per bar = -0.000028
Sharpe (rf=0)
-9.21
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
18.39%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.04 over 2424 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-draw/risk · same metrics, JSON