POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · GERMANY VS. CURAÇAO - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao?

YES · live
0.1¢
NO · live
100.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-0 · fresh · feed 0s old
realized vol (ann.)
—
max drawdown
—
sharpe
—
ulcer index
—
RMS drawdown
pain index
—
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
—
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
—
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
—
implied (price-only)
bars used
0
insufficient
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%
  • insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-0/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.1¢
NO · live
100.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0339 · σ=0.0150 · range [0.0005, 0.0535] · R²=0.016▼ FALLING -98.15%σ EXTREME 44.33%LAST 0.00050.05350.04030.02700.01370.0005μ = 0.0339max 0.0535min 0.0005dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 0.05¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.1%NO 100.0%NO100.0%99.95¢ · odds 1/1.00
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.006 / 1.00 bits (1%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.1%0.1¢2000.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
100.0%100.0¢1.00×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=1,195 · μ=49.8 · σ=87.3 · CV=1.75BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=150105210315420μ = 5042050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 1195bp moved · peak 420bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2ms
▲YES mid
0.05¢ (0.05%)
▼NO mid
99.95¢ (99.95%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$119.1k
≋liquidity $
$193.4k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0339 · σ=0.0150 · range [0.0005, 0.0535] · R²=0.016▼ FALLING -98.15%σ EXTREME 44.33%LAST 0.00050.05350.04030.02700.01370.0005μ = 0.0339max 0.0535min 0.0005dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.05¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9661 · σ=0.0150 · range [0.9465, 0.9995] · R²=0.016▲ RISING +2.72%σ NORMAL 1.55%LAST 0.99950.99950.98630.97300.95970.9465μ = 0.9661max 0.9995min 0.9465dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.95¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0016 · σ=0.0093 · skew=-2.59 (left-skewed) · kurt=8.64 (leptokurtic (fat tails))14117401-3.93ppbin -3.93pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin -3.93pp · n=1 · 7.1% peak-3.38pp-2.84pp-2.29pp-1.75pp1-1.20ppbin -1.20pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin -1.20pp · n=1 · 7.1% peak2-0.66ppbin -0.66pp · n=2 · 14.3% peakbin -0.66pp · n=2 · 14.3% peak14-0.11ppbin -0.11pp · n=14 · 100.0% peakbin -0.11pp · n=14 · 100.0% peak30.43ppbin 0.43pp · n=3 · 21.4% peakbin 0.43pp · n=3 · 21.4% peak30.98ppbin 0.98pp · n=3 · 21.4% peakbin 0.98pp · n=3 · 21.4% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-2.80 · kurt=9.81 · near 8 / mid 15 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.83 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-2.12σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-1.10)
μ MEAN3.39¢95% CI: [2.80¢, 3.98¢]
σ STD DEV1.50ppσ² = 2.256 · CV = 44.33%
med MEDIAN4.15¢Q₁ 2.70¢ · Q₃ 4.40¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 5.30pp · IQR 1.70pp (1.349σ→2.03pp)
min 0.05¢Q₁ 2.70¢med 4.15¢Q₃ 4.40¢max 5.35¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.105left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.191mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.51
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.19
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.53
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.104within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.097lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.876strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.607fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.876
H = 0.876STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.104k=2+0.097k=3+0.035k=4-0.038k=5-0.0150+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.61)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.86very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.61)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322391
SLUGfifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-0
CATEGORYGermany vs. Curaçao - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (100¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.05¢implied prob 0.05% · decimal odds 2000.00×
COUNTER · NO99.95¢implied prob 99.95% · decimal odds 1.00×
0.05¢
99.95¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME119.12k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY193.42k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (100¢)|primary − counter| = 0.999 · entropy 0.006 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.1%NO 100.0%YES p̂0.1%H = 0.006 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES2000.00×(0¢)NO1.00×(100¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.006 bits (1% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.25% · worst -4.20% · typical |Δ| 0.50%BEARISH SESSION -2.65%BEST+1.25%6hWORST-4.20%22hTYPICAL |Δ|0.50%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.65%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.11% · Σ +0.80%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.09% · Σ +0.70%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.52% · Σ -4.15%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.65%+2.65%-2.65%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h-0.05% · 3h-0.05% · 3h-0.05%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h-0.45% · 5h-0.45% · 5h-0.45%5h1.25% · 6h1.25% · 6h1.25%6h★ BEST0.05% · 7h0.05% · 7h0.05%7h0.90% · 8h0.90% · 8h0.90%8h-0.05% · 9h-0.05% · 9h-0.05%9h1.00% · 10h1.00% · 10h1.00%10h-1.05% · 11h-1.05% · 11h-1.05%11h-0.45% · 12h-0.45% · 12h-0.45%12h0.55% · 13h0.55% · 13h0.55%13h-0.15% · 14h-0.15% · 14h-0.15%14h-0.05% · 15h-0.05% · 15h-0.05%15h0.55% · 16h0.55% · 16h0.55%16h-0.25% · 17h-0.25% · 17h-0.25%17h0.25% · 18h0.25% · 18h0.25%18h-0.25% · 19h-0.25% · 19h-0.25%19h-0.35% · 20h-0.35% · 20h-0.35%20h0.10% · 21h0.10% · 21h0.10%21h-4.20% · 22h-4.20% · 22h-4.20%22h▼ WORST0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+0.80%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 2BREADTH33% up · 46% down · 21% flat
8 up bars · 11 down · best 1.25% · worst -4.20% · typical |Δ| 0.498%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.73%)FINAL-2.73%MAX DD-5.26%RECOVERYONGOING · 14 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.67%UNDERWATER18/25 (72%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9727 · peak 1.0267 · range [0.9727, 1.0267]1.02670.9727break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0267UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -5.26% · significant0%-5.26%▼ TROUGH -5.26%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -5.26%bar 12-25 · 14 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.50%bar 4-6 · 3 bars · recovered#3 -0.05%bar 10-10 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -5.26%)RECOVERYongoing · 14 barsTIME UNDER WATER72% of session · 18/25 bars
final equity 0.9727 (-2.73%) · max DD -5.26% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +12 / −7 (63% positive) · μ=7.82 · σ=29.81MIXED EDGELAST -43.58 (-1.72σ vs μ)61.2430.620.00-30.62-61.24μ = 7.8220.2220.2221.6421.6440.9440.9440.9440.9461.2461.2437.8537.857.937.9317.3217.32-3.23-3.23-3.23-3.23-15.28-15.287.407.4039.8739.874.874.87-4.45-4.452.212.21-43.39-43.39-40.63-40.63-43.58-43.58v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -43.577 · range [-43.58, 61.24] · μ 7.823 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=71.6337 · σ=41.6142 · range [29.9893, 159.9190] · R²=0.168▲ RISING +190.79%σ EXTREME 58.09%LAST 157.4695159.9190127.436694.954262.471829.9893μ = 71.6337max 159.9190min 29.9893dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.17μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 157.47% · range [29.99%, 159.92%] · μ 71.63% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.368 · σ=0.180MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.316 (+0.29σ vs μ)0.7270.3640.000-0.364-0.727μ = -0.368-0.308-0.308-0.371-0.371-0.370-0.370-0.513-0.513-0.727-0.727-0.487-0.487-0.222-0.222-0.262-0.262-0.364-0.364-0.353-0.3530.0550.055-0.584-0.584-0.548-0.548-0.567-0.567-0.322-0.322-0.330-0.330-0.091-0.091-0.306-0.306-0.316-0.316v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.316 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
192.1729
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
0.6517
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9833
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.9186
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7820
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.3272
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1844
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1897
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3747
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.0400
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9681
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.012 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=9.66e-5 · top T=2.18h (18.0%) · top-3 cover 44.6%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.1e-41.6e-41.0e-45.2e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.41e-4 · 12.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.41e-4 · 12.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.96e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.96e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.24e-5 · 6.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.24e-5 · 6.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.26e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.26e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.14e-5 · 5.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.14e-5 · 5.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.26e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.26e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.64e-4 · 14.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.64e-4 · 14.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.61e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.61e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.45e-4 · 12.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.45e-4 · 12.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.06e-4 · 9.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.06e-4 · 9.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.09e-4 · 18.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.09e-4 · 18.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.60e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.60e-7 · 0.0% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.18h#2T=3.43h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 18.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.159e-3

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 1.004pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 2.46ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0005 · n = 25⚠ low confidence · n < 100
μ per bar
-0.110pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
1.004pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
4.92pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
2.46pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0005
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.1¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.85pp · ES₉₅ 2.51pp · method empirical · drift-correcteddrift -0.110pp/bar · quantised: no · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.64⊘ disabled · n < 30
VaR 95%
0.85pp
5th percentile of Δp
ES 95%
2.51pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
99.1pp
peak 5.3¢ → trough 0.1¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
2000.000
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+199900
$100 wins $199900
FractionalUK
1999.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$199900.00
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.006 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.006 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
10.97 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.00 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
40994700896191337599611163433802510296501166598114175850204612582034403658853
NO token ID
47342535698442626918366091922525144139892198942360547470659366955227602271663
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 19:15:47 UTC
Snapshot age
2ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 19:15:47 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
54dfc95b691d5516a64c596043bc850f0bb879a8de27716dad7ff35d6b4e7f37 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany100.0¢HL PREDSpain89.6¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?0¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,769.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,664.95HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.62

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Germany vs. Curaçao - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
—
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
—
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-1.000
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-1.000
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-0/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K————ERR
BUY$10.00K————ERR
BUY$100.00K————ERR
SELL$1.00K————ERR
SELL$10.00K————ERR
SELL$100.00K————ERR

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 25 bars
Realized vol (annualised)
—
σ per bar = 0.921182
Mean return (annualised)
—
μ per bar = -0.166208
Sharpe (rf=0)
—
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
99.07%
peak 0.05 → trough 0.00 over 12 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-0/risk · same metrics, JSON