POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · GERMANY VS. CURAÇAO

Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?

YES · live
2.3¢
NO · live
97.8¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-kor · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -4.26%
realized vol (ann.)
21.76%
max drawdown
25.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
17.89%
RMS drawdown
pain index
16.55%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
25.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.07
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.07
upside/downside
roll spread
0.5 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-4.26%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change -4.26%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-kor/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH256ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
2.3¢
NO · live
97.8¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0228 · σ=0.0014 · range [0.0205, 0.0245] · R²=0.390▼ FALLING -8.16%σ HIGH 6.16%LAST 0.02250.02450.02350.02250.02150.0205μ = 0.0228max 0.0245min 0.0205dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.39μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 2.25¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 2.3%NO 97.8%NO97.8%97.75¢ · odds 1/1.02
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.155 / 1.00 bits (16%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
2.3%2.3¢44.44×▬ +0.00pp
NO
97.8%97.8¢1.02×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=200 · μ=8.3 · σ=8.7 · CV=1.04BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1408152330μ = 83050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 200bp moved · peak 30bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
256ms
▲YES mid
2.25¢ (2.25%)
▼NO mid
97.75¢ (97.75%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$5.5M
≋liquidity $
$1.5M
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0228 · σ=0.0014 · range [0.0205, 0.0245] · R²=0.390▼ FALLING -8.16%σ HIGH 6.16%LAST 0.02250.02450.02350.02250.02150.0205μ = 0.0228max 0.0245min 0.0205dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.39μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 2.25¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9772 · σ=0.0014 · range [0.9755, 0.9795] · R²=0.390▲ RISING +0.21%σ LOW 0.14%LAST 0.97750.97950.97850.97750.97650.9755μ = 0.9772max 0.9795min 0.9755dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.39μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 97.75¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0001 · σ=0.0010 · skew=-0.53 (left-skewed) · kurt=0.54 (mesokurtic)1085301-0.28ppbin -0.28pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -0.28pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak-0.23pp1-0.18ppbin -0.18pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -0.18pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak-0.13pp6-0.08ppbin -0.08pp · n=6 · 60.0% peakbin -0.08pp · n=6 · 60.0% peak-0.03pp100.03ppbin 0.03pp · n=10 · 100.0% peakbin 0.03pp · n=10 · 100.0% peak20.08ppbin 0.08pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin 0.08pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak10.13ppbin 0.13pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 0.13pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak30.18ppbin 0.18pp · n=3 · 30.0% peakbin 0.18pp · n=3 · 30.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.14 · kurt=0.16 · near 16 / mid 8 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.42)
μ MEAN2.28¢95% CI: [2.23¢, 2.34¢]
σ STD DEV0.14ppσ² = 0.020 · CV = 6.16%
med MEDIAN2.35¢Q₁ 2.15¢ · Q₃ 2.35¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.40pp · IQR 0.20pp (1.349σ→0.19pp)
min 2.05¢Q₁ 2.15¢med 2.35¢Q₃ 2.35¢max 2.45¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.293approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.417platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.48
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.95
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.85
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.27 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.269within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.126lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.478random-walk
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.831significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]random-walk · H = 0.478
H = 0.478RANDOM-WALK
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.269k=2-0.126k=3-0.067k=4+0.231k=5-0.0900+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.83)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.27 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.31moderate · 1-step ahead inferrable|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.83)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1897060
SLUGfifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-kor
CATEGORYGermany vs. Curaçao
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (98¢)
PRIMARY · YES2.25¢implied prob 2.25% · decimal odds 44.44×
COUNTER · NO97.75¢implied prob 97.75% · decimal odds 1.02×
2.25¢
97.75¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME5.52M USD 24h
LIQUIDITY1.55M USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (98¢)|primary − counter| = 0.955 · entropy 0.155 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 2.3%NO 97.8%YES p̂2.3%H = 0.155 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES44.44×(2¢)NO1.02×(98¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.155 bits (16% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · CRITICALresolves 2026-06-14 17:00 UTC
0days
00hrs
53min
53 minutes·θ = 0.689 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 2.3%)
NO →$0.00(P = 97.8%)
current: $0.0225 · expected return per side: $0.98 on YES hit · $0.02 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+0.4hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.14% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 0.689 pp/day
now0.89h left
0.689 pp/day×1.00
−25%0.67h left
0.795 pp/day×1.15
−50%0.44h left
0.974 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.22h left
1.378 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.09h left
2.178 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.20% · worst -0.30% · typical |Δ| 0.08%MILD BEARISH -0.20%BEST+0.20%6hWORST-0.30%15hTYPICAL |Δ|0.08%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.20%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.10%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.20%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.20%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.20%+0.00%-0.40%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h-0.10% · 3h-0.10% · 3h-0.10%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h-0.20% · 5h-0.20% · 5h-0.20%5h0.20% · 6h0.20% · 6h0.20%6h★ BEST0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.10% · 10h0.10% · 10h0.10%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h-0.10% · 12h-0.10% · 12h-0.10%12h-0.10% · 13h-0.10% · 13h-0.10%13h0.20% · 14h0.20% · 14h0.20%14h-0.30% · 15h-0.30% · 15h-0.30%15h▼ WORST-0.10% · 16h-0.10% · 16h-0.10%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.10% · 18h0.10% · 18h0.10%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h-0.10% · 21h-0.10% · 21h-0.10%21h0.10% · 22h0.10% · 22h0.10%22h0.20% · 23h0.20% · 23h0.20%23h-0.10% · 24h-0.10% · 24h-0.10%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.20%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH25% up · 33% down · 42% flat
6 up bars · 8 down · best 0.20% · worst -0.30% · typical |Δ| 0.083%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.20%)FINAL-0.20%MAX DD-0.40%RECOVERYONGOING · 22 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9980 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9960, 1.0000]1.00000.9960break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.40% · shallow0%-0.40%▼ TROUGH -0.40%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -0.40%bar 4-25 · 22 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.40%)RECOVERYongoing · 22 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9980 (-0.20%) · max DD -0.40% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −11 (32% positive) · μ=-3.79 · σ=25.64UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 13.34 (+0.67σ vs μ)55.9327.970.00-27.97-55.93μ = -3.79-11.74-11.74-11.74-11.74-11.74-11.740.000.0011.7411.7455.9355.930.000.00-20.72-20.7213.3413.34-17.82-17.82-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-17.82-17.82-9.06-9.06-33.95-33.95-20.72-20.7220.7220.7244.6244.6213.3413.34v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 13.343 · range [-38.21, 55.93] · μ -3.790 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=11.6083 · σ=3.4221 · range [5.9195, 16.3902] · R²=0.001▼ FALLING -12.05%σ EXTREME 29.48%LAST 10.941716.390213.772511.15498.53725.9195μ = 11.6083max 16.3902min 5.9195dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 10.94% · range [5.92%, 16.39%] · μ 11.61% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −14 (21% positive) · μ=-0.240 · σ=0.282MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.199 (+0.15σ vs μ)0.5130.2560.000-0.256-0.513μ = -0.240-0.513-0.513-0.475-0.475-0.456-0.456-0.500-0.500-0.494-0.494-0.214-0.2140.0000.0000.3430.343-0.126-0.126-0.464-0.464-0.483-0.483-0.483-0.483-0.377-0.377-0.238-0.2380.2890.2890.0490.049-0.363-0.3630.1360.136-0.199-0.199v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.199 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.3350
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8458
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.4677
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4856
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.4174
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1449
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.6502
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5156
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (9 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5397
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0327
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.3585
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1743
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.587 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.58e-6 · top T=4.00h (22.8%) · top-3 cover 55.4%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)4.3e-63.3e-62.2e-61.1e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.70e-7 · 0.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.70e-7 · 0.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.69e-6 · 8.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.69e-6 · 8.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.41e-7 · 0.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.41e-7 · 0.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.67e-7 · 3.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.67e-7 · 3.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.39e-7 · 4.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.39e-7 · 4.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.33e-6 · 22.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.33e-6 · 22.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.01e-6 · 5.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.01e-6 · 5.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.17e-6 · 6.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.17e-6 · 6.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.03e-6 · 10.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.03e-6 · 10.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.98e-6 · 10.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.98e-6 · 10.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.14e-7 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.14e-7 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.17e-6 · 21.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.17e-6 · 21.9% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=4.00h#2T=2.00h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.00h (freq 0.250) · concentrates 22.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.900e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3818 bars · effective 1752908 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.014pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.03ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0220 · n = 3818✓ n = 3818
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.014pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.07pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.03pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0220
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
2.3¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.02pp · ES₉₅ 0.03pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 3818
VaR 95%
0.02pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.03pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
25.0pp
peak 2.6¢ → trough 1.9¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
2.3%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
44.444
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+4344
$100 wins $4344
FractionalUK
43.44 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$4344.44
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 2.3%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.155 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.155 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
5.47 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.03 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
84520506461080918199836241264297202134105253634264892405638380867421157597093
NO token ID
23629742762044805884663386782361296528843864508469070874981829600983199849833
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:06:46 UTC
Snapshot age
256ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:06:47 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
9dee656b35703dea0c9def0eebbe0a0895364687fca7b9c27d21831cf2e2c88f · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.5¢HL PREDSpain89.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,018.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,663.15HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.34

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Germany vs. Curaçao

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.022500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
444.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.731
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.092
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-kor/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.023928634.57bp0.0250003FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0248881061.54bp0.0250003FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.08283326814.62bp0.90000072FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.022000222.22bp0.0220001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.020431919.66bp0.0200003FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0115344873.99bp0.00100022PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,818 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
814.82%
σ per bar = 0.006154
Mean return (annualised)
-1997.00%
μ per bar = -0.000011
Sharpe (rf=0)
-2.45
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
25.00%
peak 0.03 → trough 0.02 over 545 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-kor/risk · same metrics, JSON