POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · GERMANY VS. CURAÇAO - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao?

YES · live
5.5¢
NO · live
94.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-1 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
40.32%
max drawdown
19.01%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
12.98%
RMS drawdown
pain index
11.17%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
19.01%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.79
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.79
upside/downside
roll spread
1.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1473
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-1/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH12ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
5.5¢
NO · live
94.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0452 · σ=0.0088 · range [0.0340, 0.0605] · R²=0.673▲ RISING +41.89%σ EXTREME 19.48%LAST 0.05250.06050.05390.04730.04060.0340μ = 0.0452max 0.0605min 0.0340dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.67μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 5.25¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 5.5%NO 94.5%NO94.5%94.55¢ · odds 1/1.06
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.305 / 1.00 bits (31%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
5.5%5.5¢18.35×▬ +0.00pp
NO
94.5%94.5¢1.06×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=605 · μ=25.2 · σ=32.9 · CV=1.30BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1603467101135μ = 2513550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 605bp moved · peak 135bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
12ms
▲YES mid
5.45¢ (5.45%)
▼NO mid
94.55¢ (94.55%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$105.4k
≋liquidity $
$88.9k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0452 · σ=0.0088 · range [0.0340, 0.0605] · R²=0.673▲ RISING +41.89%σ EXTREME 19.48%LAST 0.05250.06050.05390.04730.04060.0340μ = 0.0452max 0.0605min 0.0340dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.67μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 5.25¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9548 · σ=0.0088 · range [0.9395, 0.9660] · R²=0.673▼ FALLING -1.61%σ LOW 0.92%LAST 0.94750.96600.95940.95270.94610.9395μ = 0.9548max 0.9660min 0.9395dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.67μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 94.75¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0006 · σ=0.0039 · skew=1.09 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.93 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1085301-0.69ppbin -0.69pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -0.69pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak1-0.48ppbin -0.48pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -0.48pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak3-0.26ppbin -0.26pp · n=3 · 30.0% peakbin -0.26pp · n=3 · 30.0% peak10-0.05ppbin -0.05pp · n=10 · 100.0% peakbin -0.05pp · n=10 · 100.0% peak50.17ppbin 0.17pp · n=5 · 50.0% peakbin 0.17pp · n=5 · 50.0% peak10.38ppbin 0.38pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 0.38pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak10.60ppbin 0.60pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 0.60pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak10.81ppbin 0.81pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 0.81pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak1.03pp11.24ppbin 1.24pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 1.24pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.13 · kurt=2.77 · near 14 / mid 9 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.95 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.68)
μ MEAN4.52¢95% CI: [4.18¢, 4.87¢]
σ STD DEV0.88ppσ² = 0.777 · CV = 19.48%
med MEDIAN4.90¢Q₁ 3.65¢ · Q₃ 5.25¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 2.65pp · IQR 1.60pp (1.349σ→1.19pp)
min 3.40¢Q₁ 3.65¢med 4.90¢Q₃ 5.25¢max 6.05¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.140approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.683platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.43
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.74
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.01
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.049within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.185lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.933strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+6.885significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.933
H = 0.933STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.049k=2-0.185k=3-0.203k=4+0.198k=5-0.0220+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.88)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.91very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.88)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322406
SLUGfifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-1
CATEGORYGermany vs. Curaçao - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (95¢)
PRIMARY · YES5.45¢implied prob 5.45% · decimal odds 18.35×
COUNTER · NO94.55¢implied prob 94.55% · decimal odds 1.06×
5.45¢
94.55¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME105.36k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY88.87k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (95¢)|primary − counter| = 0.891 · entropy 0.305 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 5.5%NO 94.5%YES p̂5.5%H = 0.305 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES18.35×(5¢)NO1.06×(95¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.305 bits (31% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-14 17:00 UTC
0days
01hrs
38min
1.6 hours·θ = 4.318 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 5.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 94.5%)
current: $0.0545 · expected return per side: $0.95 on YES hit · $0.05 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+0.8hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.88% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 4.318 pp/day
now1.64h left
4.318 pp/day×1.00
−25%1.23h left
4.986 pp/day×1.15
−50%0.82h left
6.107 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.41h left
8.636 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.16h left
13.655 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.35% · worst -0.80% · typical |Δ| 0.25%MILD BULLISH +1.55%BEST+1.35%12hWORST-0.80%18hTYPICAL |Δ|0.25%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+1.55%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.05%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.21% · Σ +1.65%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.25%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +1.55%+2.35%-0.30%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h-0.05% · 2h-0.05% · 2h-0.05%2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.15% · 8h0.15% · 8h0.15%8h-0.40% · 9h-0.40% · 9h-0.40%9h0.15% · 10h0.15% · 10h0.15%10h0.40% · 11h0.40% · 11h0.40%11h1.35% · 12h1.35% · 12h1.35%12h★ BEST-0.20% · 13h-0.20% · 13h-0.20%13h0.10% · 14h0.10% · 14h0.10%14h0.10% · 15h0.10% · 15h0.10%15h0.75% · 16h0.75% · 16h0.75%16h-0.15% · 17h-0.15% · 17h-0.15%17h-0.80% · 18h-0.80% · 18h-0.80%18h▼ WORST-0.20% · 19h-0.20% · 19h-0.20%19h0.15% · 20h0.15% · 20h0.15%20h-0.15% · 21h-0.15% · 21h-0.15%21h0.60% · 22h0.60% · 22h0.60%22h0.05% · 23h0.05% · 23h0.05%23h-0.30% · 24h-0.30% · 24h-0.30%24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.65%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH42% up · 33% down · 25% flat
10 up bars · 8 down · best 1.35% · worst -0.80% · typical |Δ| 0.252%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.54%FINAL+1.54%MAX DD-1.15%RECOVERYONGOING · 8 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.36%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0154 · peak 1.0236 · range [0.9970, 1.0236]1.02360.9970break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0236UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.15% · moderate0%-1.15%▼ TROUGH -1.15%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -1.15%bar 18-25 · 8 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.40%bar 10-11 · 2 bars · recovered#3 -0.20%bar 14-16 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.15%)RECOVERYongoing · 8 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 1.0154 (1.54%) · max DD -1.15% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=9.95 · σ=32.51MIXED EDGELAST 7.16 (-0.09σ vs μ)69.7434.870.00-34.87-69.74μ = 9.95-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.2138.2138.21-21.02-21.02-7.74-7.7417.6917.6943.7143.7136.9236.9235.5435.5454.7954.7969.7469.7450.2350.23-6.17-6.17-6.17-6.17-4.60-4.60-12.32-12.32-18.66-18.66-11.82-11.827.167.16v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 7.162 · range [-38.21, 69.74] · μ 9.951 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=37.1953 · σ=19.4733 · range [1.9105, 57.5183] · R²=0.391▲ RISING +1500.62%σ EXTREME 52.35%LAST 30.579957.518343.616429.714415.81251.9105μ = 37.1953max 57.5183min 1.9105dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.39μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 30.58% · range [1.91%, 57.52%] · μ 37.20% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.104 · σ=0.211CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.270 (-0.79σ vs μ)0.6120.3060.000-0.306-0.612μ = -0.104-0.233-0.233-0.033-0.033-0.033-0.033-0.322-0.322-0.612-0.612-0.164-0.1640.1860.186-0.112-0.112-0.107-0.107-0.207-0.207-0.257-0.257-0.364-0.3640.0770.0770.1940.1940.1560.1560.0340.0340.0350.0350.0630.063-0.270-0.270v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.270 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
19.8991
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.4950
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6266
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.1693
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6867
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.5471
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5843
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (11 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7283
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0110
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.0067
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9946
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.998 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.75e-5 · top T=4.80h (20.2%) · top-3 cover 46.0%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)4.3e-53.2e-52.1e-51.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.38e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.38e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.11e-5 · 10.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.11e-5 · 10.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.43e-5 · 6.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.43e-5 · 6.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.10e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.10e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.26e-5 · 20.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.26e-5 · 20.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.49e-5 · 11.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.49e-5 · 11.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.86e-5 · 8.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.86e-5 · 8.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.45e-6 · 2.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.45e-6 · 2.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.16e-6 · 4.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.16e-6 · 4.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.39e-6 · 3.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.39e-6 · 3.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.28e-5 · 6.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.28e-5 · 6.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.93e-5 · 13.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.93e-5 · 13.9% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=4.80h#2T=2.00h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.80h (freq 0.208) · concentrates 20.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.102e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1473 bars · effective 1753005 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.030pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.07ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0515 · n = 1473✓ n = 1473
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.030pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.15pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.07pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0515
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
5.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.05pp · ES₉₅ 0.06pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 1473
VaR 95%
0.05pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.06pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
19.0pp
peak 6.0¢ → trough 4.9¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
5.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
18.349
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+1735
$100 wins $1735
FractionalUK
17.35 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$1734.86
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 5.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.305 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.305 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
4.20 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.08 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
17519068762374489335686926051014685752189086782001716144306866913859989302766
NO token ID
22564211169811288319453224982053999254645186464653862291127380526430372025019
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 15:21:48 UTC
Snapshot age
12ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 15:21:48 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
df9dc73b895b52f00a41e4000bdf147bad99677ba87ac07b9a3fbec8ed47e187 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain89.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,037.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,662.35HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.49

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Germany vs. Curaçao - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.052500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
190.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.891
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.075
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-1/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.056740807.58bp0.0580006FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.10948710854.58bp0.60000046FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.53671292230.81bp0.99000064FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0323703834.36bp0.00100026PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0323703834.36bp0.00100026PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0323703834.36bp0.00100026PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,473 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
748.33%
σ per bar = 0.005652
Mean return (annualised)
-8434.68%
μ per bar = -0.000048
Sharpe (rf=0)
-11.27
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
19.01%
peak 0.06 → trough 0.05 over 562 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-1/risk · same metrics, JSON