POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · GERMANY VS. CURAÇAO - MORE MARKETS

Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5

YES · live
28.0¢
NO · live
72.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-team-total-away-0pt5 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
81.63%
max drawdown
13.85%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
6.17%
RMS drawdown
pain index
4.88%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
13.07%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.31
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.31
upside/downside
roll spread
1.9 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1510
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-team-total-away-0pt5/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH23ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
28.0¢
NO · live
72.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.3250 · σ=0.0189 · range [0.2750, 0.3450] · R²=0.671▼ FALLING -19.12%σ HIGH 5.81%LAST 0.27500.34500.32750.31000.29250.2750μ = 0.3250max 0.3450min 0.2750dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.67μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 27.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 28.0%NO 72.0%NO72.0%72.00¢ · odds 1/1.39
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.855 / 1.00 bits (86%) · high uncertainty
YES
28.0%28.0¢3.57×▬ +0.00pp
NO
72.0%72.0¢1.39×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=1,250 · μ=52.1 · σ=58.0 · CV=1.11BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=17050100150200μ = 5220050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 1250bp moved · peak 200bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
23ms
▲YES mid
28.00¢ (28.00%)
▼NO mid
72.00¢ (72.00%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$64.5k
≋liquidity $
$21.4k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.3250 · σ=0.0189 · range [0.2750, 0.3450] · R²=0.671▼ FALLING -19.12%σ HIGH 5.81%LAST 0.27500.34500.32750.31000.29250.2750μ = 0.3250max 0.3450min 0.2750dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.67μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 27.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.6746 · σ=0.0178 · range [0.6550, 0.7150] · R²=0.685▲ RISING +8.33%σ NORMAL 2.65%LAST 0.71500.71500.70000.68500.67000.6550μ = 0.6746max 0.7150min 0.6550dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.69μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 71.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0029 · σ=0.0071 · skew=-0.10 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.04 (mesokurtic)1085301-1.83ppbin -1.83pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -1.83pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak1-1.48ppbin -1.48pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -1.48pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak4-1.13ppbin -1.13pp · n=4 · 40.0% peakbin -1.13pp · n=4 · 40.0% peak-0.78pp4-0.43ppbin -0.43pp · n=4 · 40.0% peakbin -0.43pp · n=4 · 40.0% peak10-0.08ppbin -0.08pp · n=10 · 100.0% peakbin -0.08pp · n=10 · 100.0% peak0.27pp30.62ppbin 0.62pp · n=3 · 30.0% peakbin 0.62pp · n=3 · 30.0% peak0.97pp11.32ppbin 1.32pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 1.32pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.17 · kurt=0.59 · near 16 / mid 8 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-1.15)
μ MEAN32.50¢95% CI: [31.76¢, 33.24¢]
σ STD DEV1.89ppσ² = 3.563 · CV = 5.81%
med MEDIAN33.00¢Q₁ 31.50¢ · Q₃ 34.00¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 7.00pp · IQR 2.50pp (1.349σ→2.55pp)
min 27.50¢Q₁ 31.50¢med 33.00¢Q₃ 34.00¢max 34.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.151left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.381mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.26
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.02
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.71
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.27 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.265within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.222lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.169strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-6.842significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.169
H = 1.169STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.265k=2+0.222k=3+0.007k=4+0.213k=5-0.1820+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.84)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.27 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.84)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2482200
SLUGfifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-team-total-away-0pt5
CATEGORYGermany vs. Curaçao - More Markets
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (72¢)
PRIMARY · YES28.00¢implied prob 28.00% · decimal odds 3.57×
COUNTER · NO72.00¢implied prob 72.00% · decimal odds 1.39×
28.00¢
72.00¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME64.45k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY21.41k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (72¢)|primary − counter| = 0.440 · entropy 0.855 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 28.0%NO 72.0%YES p̂28.0%H = 0.855 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES3.57×(28¢)NO1.39×(72¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.855 bits (86% of max) · high uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-14 17:00 UTC
0days
01hrs
28min
1.5 hours·θ = 9.247 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 28.0%)
NO →$0.00(P = 72.0%)
current: $0.2800 · expected return per side: $0.72 on YES hit · $0.28 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+0.7hRESOLVESP projection · σ=1.89% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 9.247 pp/day
now1.48h left
9.247 pp/day×1.00
−25%1.11h left
10.677 pp/day×1.15
−50%0.74h left
13.077 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.37h left
18.493 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.15h left
29.240 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.50% · worst -2.00% · typical |Δ| 0.52%BEARISH SESSION -6.50%BEST+1.50%7hWORST-2.00%21hTYPICAL |Δ|0.52%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-6.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.25% · Σ -2.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.50% · Σ -4.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -6.50%+0.50%-6.50%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h-1.00% · 3h-1.00% · 3h-1.00%3h0.50% · 4h0.50% · 4h0.50%4h-0.50% · 5h-0.50% · 5h-0.50%5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h1.50% · 7h1.50% · 7h1.50%7h★ BEST0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h-0.50% · 9h-0.50% · 9h-0.50%9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h-1.00% · 13h-1.00% · 13h-1.00%13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h-0.50% · 15h-0.50% · 15h-0.50%15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h-1.00% · 17h-1.00% · 17h-1.00%17h0.50% · 18h0.50% · 18h0.50%18h-0.50% · 19h-0.50% · 19h-0.50%19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h-2.00% · 21h-2.00% · 21h-2.00%21h▼ WORST0.50% · 22h0.50% · 22h0.50%22h-1.50% · 23h-1.50% · 23h-1.50%23h-1.00% · 24h-1.00% · 24h-1.00%24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+0.50%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 2BREADTH17% up · 42% down · 42% flat
4 up bars · 10 down · best 1.50% · worst -2.00% · typical |Δ| 0.521%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -6.36%FINAL-6.36%MAX DD-6.81%RECOVERYONGOING · 16 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.48%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9364 · peak 1.0048 · range [0.9364, 1.0048]1.00480.9364break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0048UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -6.81% · significant0%-6.81%▼ TROUGH -6.81%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -6.81%bar 10-25 · 16 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.00%bar 4-7 · 4 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -6.81%)RECOVERYongoing · 16 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 0.9364 (-6.36%) · max DD -6.81% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-31.11 · σ=34.71UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -75.04 (-1.27σ vs μ)79.3339.660.00-39.66-79.33μ = -31.11-30.21-30.219.069.069.069.0620.7220.7210.6010.6022.8322.8322.8322.83-55.93-55.93-55.93-55.93-55.93-55.93-55.93-55.93-79.33-79.33-51.52-51.52-44.62-44.62-44.62-44.62-52.32-52.32-40.19-40.19-44.62-44.62-75.04-75.04v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -75.043 · range [-79.33, 22.83] · μ -31.111 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=62.8668 · σ=19.6634 · range [39.1535, 98.1631] · R²=0.058▲ RISING +81.14%σ EXTREME 31.28%LAST 87.550098.163183.410768.658353.905939.1535μ = 62.8668max 98.1631min 39.1535dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.06μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 87.55% · range [39.15%, 98.16%] · μ 62.87% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.414 · σ=0.262MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.700 (-1.09σ vs μ)0.7730.3860.000-0.386-0.773μ = -0.414-0.708-0.708-0.182-0.182-0.238-0.238-0.157-0.157-0.033-0.033-0.083-0.0830.0240.024-0.214-0.214-0.357-0.357-0.357-0.357-0.500-0.500-0.661-0.661-0.606-0.606-0.773-0.773-0.773-0.773-0.375-0.375-0.586-0.586-0.591-0.591-0.700-0.700v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.700 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.1848
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5530
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.8136
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3245
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
0.9857
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9990
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.5878
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1123
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (9 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7382
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0101
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.8979
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3692
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.727 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=6.18e-5 · top T=2.00h (31.6%) · top-3 cover 56.8%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.3e-41.8e-41.2e-45.9e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 7.79e-5 · 10.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 7.79e-5 · 10.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.35e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.35e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.69e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.69e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.19e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.19e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.33e-5 · 1.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.33e-5 · 1.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.69e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.69e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.65e-5 · 7.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.65e-5 · 7.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.01e-4 · 13.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.01e-4 · 13.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.67e-5 · 7.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.67e-5 · 7.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.24e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.24e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.57e-5 · 11.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.57e-5 · 11.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.34e-4 · 31.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.34e-4 · 31.6% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 31.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 7.417e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1510 bars · effective 1753005 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.062pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.15ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2016 · n = 1510✓ n = 1510
μ per bar
-0.003pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.062pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.30pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.15pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.2016
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
28.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.10pp · ES₉₅ 0.13pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.003pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 1510
VaR 95%
0.10pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.13pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
13.8pp
peak 32.5¢ → trough 28.0¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
28.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
3.571
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+257
$100 wins $257
FractionalUK
2.57 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$257.14
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 28.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.855 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.855 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.84 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.47 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
101161579547389892723853992353978582721026264650097280580712762012817027632777
NO token ID
102450459513853700609217527144268541066388242686047846314708962825179682056144
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 15:31:16 UTC
Snapshot age
23ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 15:31:16 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
73a15bad04938392620b4109d895f1a4cef75b2a81cc391307cd6055b4f9c160 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain89.7¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,014HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,662.5HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.52

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Germany vs. Curaçao - More Markets

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.285000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
350.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.395
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.004
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-team-total-away-0pt5/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.302319607.69bp0.3100003FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.3316091635.41bp0.3700009FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.4480815722.14bp0.99000026PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.262768780.06bp0.2600003FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1332385325.00bp0.01000024FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0774477282.55bp0.01000024PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,510 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
271.30%
σ per bar = 0.002049
Mean return (annualised)
-17313.46%
μ per bar = -0.000099
Sharpe (rf=0)
-63.82
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
13.85%
peak 0.33 → trough 0.28 over 1461 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-team-total-away-0pt5/risk · same metrics, JSON