POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · GERMANY VS. CURAÇAO - HALFTIME RESULT

Curaçao leading at halftime?

YES · live
2.4¢
NO · live
97.7¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-halftime-result-away · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
44.76%
max drawdown
44.07%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
18.38%
RMS drawdown
pain index
12.92%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
44.07%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.92
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.92
upside/downside
roll spread
1.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1471
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-halftime-result-away/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
2.4¢
NO · live
97.7¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0303 · σ=0.0040 · range [0.0220, 0.0350] · R²=0.638▼ FALLING -21.43%σ HIGH 13.25%LAST 0.02750.03500.03180.02850.02530.0220μ = 0.0303max 0.0350min 0.0220dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.64μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 2.75¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 2.4%NO 97.7%NO97.7%97.65¢ · odds 1/1.02
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.161 / 1.00 bits (16%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
2.4%2.4¢42.55×▬ +0.00pp
NO
97.7%97.7¢1.02×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=555 · μ=23.1 · σ=23.7 · CV=1.02BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=15019385675μ = 237550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 555bp moved · peak 75bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3ms
▲YES mid
2.35¢ (2.35%)
▼NO mid
97.65¢ (97.65%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$54.7k
≋liquidity $
$35.9k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0303 · σ=0.0040 · range [0.0220, 0.0350] · R²=0.638▼ FALLING -21.43%σ HIGH 13.25%LAST 0.02750.03500.03180.02850.02530.0220μ = 0.0303max 0.0350min 0.0220dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.64μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 2.75¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9697 · σ=0.0040 · range [0.9650, 0.9780] · R²=0.638▲ RISING +0.78%σ LOW 0.41%LAST 0.97250.97800.97480.97150.96820.9650μ = 0.9697max 0.9780min 0.9650dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.64μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 97.25¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0002 · σ=0.0031 · skew=-0.37 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.40 (mesokurtic)1085301-0.68ppbin -0.68pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -0.68pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak2-0.54ppbin -0.54pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin -0.54pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak2-0.40ppbin -0.40pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin -0.40pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak1-0.26ppbin -0.26pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -0.26pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak1-0.12ppbin -0.12pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -0.12pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak100.02ppbin 0.02pp · n=10 · 100.0% peakbin 0.02pp · n=10 · 100.0% peak10.16ppbin 0.16pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 0.16pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak40.30ppbin 0.30pp · n=4 · 40.0% peakbin 0.30pp · n=4 · 40.0% peak10.44ppbin 0.44pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 0.44pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak10.58ppbin 0.58pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 0.58pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.34 · kurt=-0.15 · near 20 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.27)
μ MEAN3.03¢95% CI: [2.87¢, 3.19¢]
σ STD DEV0.40ppσ² = 0.161 · CV = 13.25%
med MEDIAN3.05¢Q₁ 2.70¢ · Q₃ 3.45¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.30pp · IQR 0.75pp (1.349σ→0.54pp)
min 2.20¢Q₁ 2.70¢med 3.05¢Q₃ 3.45¢max 3.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.291approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.274platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.05
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.72
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.24
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.24 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.237within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.443lag-2 dependence detected
H · HURST EXPONENT0.828strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-6.360significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.828
H = 0.828STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=2
k=1-0.237k=2 ★-0.443k=3+0.162k=4+0.128k=5-0.1200+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.36)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.24 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.89very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.36)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322382
SLUGfifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-halftime-result-away
CATEGORYGermany vs. Curaçao - Halftime Result
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (98¢)
PRIMARY · YES2.35¢implied prob 2.35% · decimal odds 42.55×
COUNTER · NO97.65¢implied prob 97.65% · decimal odds 1.02×
2.35¢
97.65¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME54.70k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY35.91k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (98¢)|primary − counter| = 0.953 · entropy 0.161 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 2.4%NO 97.7%YES p̂2.4%H = 0.161 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES42.55×(2¢)NO1.02×(98¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.161 bits (16% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · CRITICALresolves 2026-06-14 17:00 UTC
0days
00hrs
25min
25 minutes·θ = 1.966 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 2.4%)
NO →$0.00(P = 97.7%)
current: $0.0235 · expected return per side: $0.98 on YES hit · $0.02 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+0.2hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.40% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 1.966 pp/day
now0.42h left
1.966 pp/day×1.00
−25%0.31h left
2.270 pp/day×1.15
−50%0.21h left
2.780 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.10h left
3.932 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.04h left
6.217 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.65% · worst -0.75% · typical |Δ| 0.23%BEARISH SESSION -0.75%BEST+0.65%14hWORST-0.75%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.23%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.75%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.25%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.20%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.12% · Σ -0.95%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.75%+0.00%-1.30%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h-0.45% · 4h-0.45% · 4h-0.45%4h0.20% · 5h0.20% · 5h0.20%5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.25% · 9h0.25% · 9h0.25%9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h-0.45% · 11h-0.45% · 11h-0.45%11h-0.05% · 12h-0.05% · 12h-0.05%12h-0.50% · 13h-0.50% · 13h-0.50%13h0.65% · 14h0.65% · 14h0.65%14h★ BEST0.30% · 15h0.30% · 15h0.30%15h-0.75% · 16h-0.75% · 16h-0.75%16h▼ WORST-0.20% · 17h-0.20% · 17h-0.20%17h0.30% · 18h0.30% · 18h0.30%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h-0.60% · 20h-0.60% · 20h-0.60%20h0.40% · 21h0.40% · 21h0.40%21h0.05% · 22h0.05% · 22h0.05%22h-0.15% · 23h-0.15% · 23h-0.15%23h0.25% · 24h0.25% · 24h0.25%24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.20%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH33% up · 33% down · 33% flat
8 up bars · 8 down · best 0.65% · worst -0.75% · typical |Δ| 0.231%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.76%)FINAL-0.76%MAX DD-1.30%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9924 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9870, 1.0000]1.00000.9870break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.30% · moderate0%-1.30%▼ TROUGH -1.30%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -1.30%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.30%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9924 (-0.76%) · max DD -1.30% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +2 / −15 (11% positive) · μ=-9.12 · σ=21.05UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -2.24 (+0.33σ vs μ)59.8629.930.00-29.93-59.86μ = -9.12-18.10-18.10-18.10-18.10-18.10-18.100.000.0059.8659.86-13.73-13.73-17.20-17.20-40.19-40.19-3.60-3.60-1.77-1.77-23.39-23.39-16.72-16.72-5.80-5.809.599.59-33.27-33.27-28.37-28.37-2.16-2.160.000.00-2.24-2.24v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -2.238 · range [-40.19, 59.86] · μ -9.120 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=32.9076 · σ=12.1943 · range [10.9750, 50.3734] · R²=0.448▲ RISING +61.73%σ EXTREME 37.06%LAST 32.613050.373440.523830.674220.824610.9750μ = 32.9076max 50.3734min 10.9750dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.45μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 32.61% · range [10.97%, 50.37%] · μ 32.91% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.236 · σ=0.178MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.441 (-1.15σ vs μ)0.4410.2200.000-0.220-0.441μ = -0.236-0.440-0.440-0.440-0.440-0.440-0.440-0.295-0.295-0.355-0.3550.0280.0280.0480.0480.0010.001-0.314-0.314-0.088-0.088-0.191-0.191-0.164-0.164-0.184-0.1840.0630.063-0.265-0.265-0.221-0.221-0.428-0.428-0.358-0.358-0.441-0.441v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.441 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.5493
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7598
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
8.8579
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1137
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.2642
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1899
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.5175
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6048
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7953
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0073
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.9460
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0517
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.408 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.07e-5 · top T=3.00h (24.1%) · top-3 cover 61.5%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)3.1e-52.3e-51.5e-57.7e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 9.28e-7 · 0.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 9.28e-7 · 0.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.37e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.37e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.15e-6 · 5.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.15e-6 · 5.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.12e-6 · 4.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.12e-6 · 4.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.06e-5 · 8.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.06e-5 · 8.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.90e-5 · 22.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.90e-5 · 22.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.74e-5 · 13.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.74e-5 · 13.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.09e-5 · 24.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.09e-5 · 24.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.00e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.00e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.88e-5 · 14.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.88e-5 · 14.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.41e-6 · 4.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.41e-6 · 4.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.44e-7 · 0.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.44e-7 · 0.7% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=4.00h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 24.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.279e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1471 bars · effective 1753005 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.034pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.08ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0229 · n = 1471✓ n = 1471
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.034pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.17pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.08pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0229
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
2.4¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.06pp · ES₉₅ 0.07pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 1471
VaR 95%
0.06pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.07pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
44.1pp
peak 2.9¢ → trough 1.7¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
2.4%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
42.553
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+4155
$100 wins $4155
FractionalUK
41.55 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$4155.32
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 2.4%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.161 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.161 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
5.41 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.03 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
106057059651230934413451973275862301222733278336999550246413993178728957194910
NO token ID
34087990378888172007657094804113102981289716102811053738279355366488008833156
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:34:57 UTC
Snapshot age
3ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:34:57 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
26573435e93d6df9ba055e128e93797330efee312bbf345cbd0e416294317519 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.1¢HL PREDSpain89.6¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?22¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,157HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,667.6HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.2

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Germany vs. Curaçao - Halftime Result

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.026000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3076.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.458
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.663
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-halftime-result-away/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.09464926403.32bp0.15000027FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.320215113159.78bp0.94000053FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.795964296140.11bp0.98000057FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0040248452.37bp0.00300010FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0032728741.39bp0.00100011PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0032728741.39bp0.00100011PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,471 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1927.86%
σ per bar = 0.014561
Mean return (annualised)
-9740.27%
μ per bar = -0.000056
Sharpe (rf=0)
-5.05
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
44.07%
peak 0.03 → trough 0.02 over 253 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-halftime-result-away/risk · same metrics, JSON