POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · GERMANY VS. CURAÇAO - MORE MARKETS

Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5

YES · live
78.5¢
NO · live
21.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-team-total-home-2pt5 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 3.29%
realized vol (ann.)
102.56%
max drawdown
1.29%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.94%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.72%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.27%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.40
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.40
upside/downside
roll spread
0.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
3.29%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change +3.29%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-team-total-home-2pt5/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH6ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
78.5¢
NO · live
21.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.7704 · σ=0.0096 · range [0.7500, 0.7850] · R²=0.634▲ RISING +2.61%σ NORMAL 1.24%LAST 0.78500.78500.77620.76750.75880.7500μ = 0.7704max 0.7850min 0.7500dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.63μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 78.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 78.5%NO 21.5%YES78.5%78.50¢ · odds 1/1.27
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.751 / 1.00 bits (75%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
78.5%78.5¢1.27×▬ +0.00pp
NO
21.5%21.5¢4.65×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=900 · μ=37.5 · σ=47.2 · CV=1.26BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1103875113150μ = 3815050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 900bp moved · peak 150bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
6ms
▲YES mid
78.50¢ (78.50%)
▼NO mid
21.50¢ (21.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$59.1k
≋liquidity $
$9.9k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.7704 · σ=0.0096 · range [0.7500, 0.7850] · R²=0.634▲ RISING +2.61%σ NORMAL 1.24%LAST 0.78500.78500.77620.76750.75880.7500μ = 0.7704max 0.7850min 0.7500dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.63μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 78.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.2296 · σ=0.0096 · range [0.2150, 0.2500] · R²=0.634▼ FALLING -8.51%σ NORMAL 4.17%LAST 0.21500.25000.24120.23250.22380.2150μ = 0.2296max 0.2500min 0.2150dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.63μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 21.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0017 · σ=0.0053 · skew=-0.96 (left-skewed) · kurt=1.34 (leptokurtic (fat tails))13107301-1.38ppbin -1.38pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin -1.38pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak-1.13pp1-0.88ppbin -0.88pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin -0.88pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak-0.63pp2-0.38ppbin -0.38pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakbin -0.38pp · n=2 · 15.4% peak-0.13pp130.13ppbin 0.13pp · n=13 · 100.0% peakbin 0.13pp · n=13 · 100.0% peak0.38pp30.63ppbin 0.63pp · n=3 · 23.1% peakbin 0.63pp · n=3 · 23.1% peak40.88ppbin 0.88pp · n=4 · 30.8% peakbin 0.88pp · n=4 · 30.8% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.48 · kurt=0.74 · near 13 / mid 11 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.95 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN77.04¢95% CI: [76.67¢, 77.41¢]
σ STD DEV0.96ppσ² = 0.915 · CV = 1.24%
med MEDIAN77.00¢Q₁ 76.50¢ · Q₃ 77.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 3.50pp · IQR 1.00pp (1.349σ→1.29pp)
min 75.00¢Q₁ 76.50¢med 77.00¢Q₃ 77.50¢max 78.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.280approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.371mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.04
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.29
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.66
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.20 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.201within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.157lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.933strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+6.308significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.933
H = 0.933STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.201k=2-0.157k=3-0.052k=4-0.053k=5+0.0010+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.31)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.20 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.31)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2482198
SLUGfifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-team-total-home-2pt5
CATEGORYGermany vs. Curaçao - More Markets
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (79¢)
PRIMARY · YES78.50¢implied prob 78.50% · decimal odds 1.27×
COUNTER · NO21.50¢implied prob 21.50% · decimal odds 4.65×
78.50¢
21.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME59.15k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY9.91k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (79¢)|primary − counter| = 0.570 · entropy 0.751 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 78.5%NO 21.5%YES p̂78.5%H = 0.751 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.27×(79¢)NO4.65×(22¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.751 bits (75% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-14 17:00 UTC
0days
01hrs
55min
1.9 hours·θ = 4.686 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 78.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 21.5%)
current: $0.7850 · expected return per side: $0.21 on YES hit · $0.79 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+1.0hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.96% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 4.686 pp/day
now1.93h left
4.686 pp/day×1.00
−25%1.45h left
5.411 pp/day×1.15
−50%0.97h left
6.627 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.48h left
9.372 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.19h left
14.819 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.00% · worst -1.50% · typical |Δ| 0.38%MILD BULLISH +2.00%BEST+1.00%7hWORST-1.50%5hTYPICAL |Δ|0.38%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+2.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.19% · Σ +1.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.13% · Σ +1.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +2.00%+2.00%-1.50%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.50% · 2h0.50% · 2h0.50%2h-0.50% · 3h-0.50% · 3h-0.50%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h-1.50% · 5h-1.50% · 5h-1.50%5h▼ WORST0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h1.00% · 7h1.00% · 7h1.00%7h★ BEST0.50% · 8h0.50% · 8h0.50%8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.50% · 11h0.50% · 11h0.50%11h-0.50% · 12h-0.50% · 12h-0.50%12h1.00% · 13h1.00% · 13h1.00%13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h1.00% · 20h1.00% · 20h1.00%20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h-1.00% · 22h-1.00% · 22h-1.00%22h1.00% · 23h1.00% · 23h1.00%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.50%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 1BREADTH29% up · 17% down · 54% flat
7 up bars · 4 down · best 1.00% · worst -1.50% · typical |Δ| 0.375%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.98%FINAL+1.98%MAX DD-1.99%RECOVERYONGOING · 10 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.99%UNDERWATER13/25 (52%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0198 · peak 1.0199 · range [0.9850, 1.0199]1.01990.9850break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0199UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.99% · moderate0%-1.99%▼ TROUGH -1.99%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.99%bar 4-13 · 10 bars · recovered#2 -1.00%bar 23-25 · 3 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.99%)RECOVERYongoing · 22 barsTIME UNDER WATER52% of session · 13/25 bars
final equity 1.0198 (1.98%) · max DD -1.99% · time-under-water 13/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +12 / −3 (63% positive) · μ=19.80 · σ=25.73MIXED EDGELAST 20.72 (+0.04σ vs μ)76.4238.210.00-38.21-76.42μ = 19.80-33.95-33.95-9.06-9.06-9.06-9.060.000.000.000.0076.4276.4244.6244.6244.6244.6230.2130.2130.2130.2130.2130.2115.8715.8738.2138.210.000.0038.2138.2138.2138.210.000.0020.7220.7220.7220.72v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 20.722 · range [-33.95, 76.42] · μ 19.798 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=53.9181 · σ=20.2730 · range [0.0000, 80.6040] · R²=0.156▲ RISING +9.22%σ EXTREME 37.60%LAST 70.455780.604060.453040.302020.15100.0000μ = 53.9181max 80.6040min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.16μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 70.46% · range [0.00%, 80.60%] · μ 53.92% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −14 (16% positive) · μ=-0.232 · σ=0.291MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.422 (-0.65σ vs μ)0.7080.3540.000-0.354-0.708μ = -0.232-0.289-0.289-0.114-0.1140.1220.1220.1430.1430.1430.143-0.133-0.133-0.045-0.045-0.591-0.591-0.708-0.708-0.708-0.708-0.646-0.646-0.489-0.489-0.033-0.0330.0000.000-0.033-0.033-0.233-0.2330.0000.000-0.363-0.363-0.422-0.422v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.422 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
2.5167
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2841
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.9611
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8555
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.2118
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6673
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.6299
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5287
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (7 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7410
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0099
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.1513
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2496
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.650 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.49e-5 · top T=2.40h (20.7%) · top-3 cover 56.7%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)8.7e-56.5e-54.3e-52.2e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 9.10e-6 · 2.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 9.10e-6 · 2.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.17e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.17e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.38e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.38e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.92e-5 · 18.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.92e-5 · 18.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.24e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.24e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.54e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.54e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.16e-5 · 17.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.16e-5 · 17.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.92e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.92e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.03e-5 · 9.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.03e-5 · 9.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.66e-5 · 20.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.66e-5 · 20.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.34e-5 · 5.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.34e-5 · 5.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.17e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.17e-6 · 1.0% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=6.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 20.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.188e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3609 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.088pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.21ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1688 · n = 3609✓ n = 3609
μ per bar
+0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.088pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.43pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.21pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.1688
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
78.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.14pp · ES₉₅ 0.18pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 3609
VaR 95%
0.14pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.18pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
3.3pp
peak 76.0¢ → trough 73.5¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
78.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.274
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-365
risk $365 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.27 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$27.39
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 78.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.751 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.751 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.35 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
2.22 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
1765581683947423087203089474403161772801417490742791358491754572013318529111
NO token ID
5769958528563159905112952280589723455093331278282198404325504761705280718917
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 15:04:07 UTC
Snapshot age
6ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 15:04:07 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
58d9277233e6dfa30054b1389631da27337184e5f892e73e7a5d056db38fbd3b · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.5¢HL PREDSpain90.1¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,105.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,662.25HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.55

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Germany vs. Curaçao - More Markets

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.785000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
127.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.188
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.407
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-team-total-home-2pt5/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.802255219.81bp0.8100003FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.8686131065.14bp0.93000012FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.9092381582.66bp0.99000018PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.77759494.34bp0.7700002FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.5638922816.66bp0.01000032PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.5638922816.66bp0.01000032PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,609 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
152.07%
σ per bar = 0.001149
Mean return (annualised)
1572.35%
μ per bar = 0.000009
Sharpe (rf=0)
10.34
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.29%
peak 0.76 → trough 0.73 over 10 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-team-total-home-2pt5/risk · same metrics, JSON