POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · GERMANY VS. CURAÇAO - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao?

YES · live
0.1¢
NO · live
100.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-1 · fresh · feed 0s old
realized vol (ann.)
—
max drawdown
—
sharpe
—
ulcer index
—
RMS drawdown
pain index
—
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
—
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
—
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
—
implied (price-only)
bars used
0
insufficient
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%
  • insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-1/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.1¢
NO · live
100.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0121 · σ=0.0061 · range [0.0005, 0.0190] · R²=0.838▼ FALLING -97.37%σ EXTREME 50.11%LAST 0.00050.01900.01440.00970.00510.0005μ = 0.0121max 0.0190min 0.0005dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.84μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 0.05¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.1%NO 100.0%NO100.0%99.95¢ · odds 1/1.00
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.006 / 1.00 bits (1%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.1%0.1¢2000.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
100.0%100.0¢1.00×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=465 · μ=19.4 · σ=26.3 · CV=1.36BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=12024487195μ = 199550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 465bp moved · peak 95bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3ms
▲YES mid
0.05¢ (0.05%)
▼NO mid
99.95¢ (99.95%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$162.9k
≋liquidity $
$210.1k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0121 · σ=0.0061 · range [0.0005, 0.0190] · R²=0.838▼ FALLING -97.37%σ EXTREME 50.11%LAST 0.00050.01900.01440.00970.00510.0005μ = 0.0121max 0.0190min 0.0005dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.84μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.05¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9879 · σ=0.0061 · range [0.9810, 0.9995] · R²=0.838▲ RISING +1.89%σ LOW 0.62%LAST 0.99950.99950.99490.99030.98560.9810μ = 0.9879max 0.9995min 0.9810dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.84μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.95¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0007 · σ=0.0029 · skew=0.73 (right-skewed) · kurt=2.83 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1085302-0.62ppbin -0.62pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin -0.62pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak2-0.45ppbin -0.45pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin -0.45pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak1-0.29ppbin -0.29pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -0.29pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak7-0.12ppbin -0.12pp · n=7 · 70.0% peakbin -0.12pp · n=7 · 70.0% peak100.04ppbin 0.04pp · n=10 · 100.0% peakbin 0.04pp · n=10 · 100.0% peak10.21ppbin 0.21pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 0.21pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak0.37pp0.54pp0.70pp10.87ppbin 0.87pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 0.87pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.72 · kurt=3.35 · near 11 / mid 12 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.93 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN1.21¢95% CI: [0.98¢, 1.45¢]
σ STD DEV0.61ppσ² = 0.370 · CV = 50.11%
med MEDIAN1.15¢Q₁ 0.90¢ · Q₃ 1.80¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.85pp · IQR 0.90pp (1.349σ→0.82pp)
min 0.05¢Q₁ 0.90¢med 1.15¢Q₃ 1.80¢max 1.90¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.477approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.914mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.11
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.91
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.04
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.40 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.397within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.004lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.835strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-10.894significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.835
H = 0.835STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.397k=2-0.004k=3-0.258k=4+0.269k=5-0.0010+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.89)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.40 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.89)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322390
SLUGfifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-1
CATEGORYGermany vs. Curaçao - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (100¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.05¢implied prob 0.05% · decimal odds 2000.00×
COUNTER · NO99.95¢implied prob 99.95% · decimal odds 1.00×
0.05¢
99.95¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME162.87k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY210.11k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (100¢)|primary − counter| = 0.999 · entropy 0.006 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.1%NO 100.0%YES p̂0.1%H = 0.006 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES2000.00×(0¢)NO1.00×(100¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.006 bits (1% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.95% · worst -0.70% · typical |Δ| 0.19%BEARISH SESSION -1.85%BEST+0.95%12hWORST-0.70%13hTYPICAL |Δ|0.19%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.85%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.05%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.12% · Σ -1.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.10% · Σ -0.80%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.85%+0.00%-1.85%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h-0.10% · 3h-0.10% · 3h-0.10%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h-0.15% · 5h-0.15% · 5h-0.15%5h0.10% · 6h0.10% · 6h0.10%6h0.10% · 7h0.10% · 7h0.10%7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h-0.45% · 9h-0.45% · 9h-0.45%9h-0.05% · 10h-0.05% · 10h-0.05%10h-0.45% · 11h-0.45% · 11h-0.45%11h0.95% · 12h0.95% · 12h0.95%12h★ BEST-0.70% · 13h-0.70% · 13h-0.70%13h▼ WORST-0.25% · 14h-0.25% · 14h-0.25%14h-0.05% · 15h-0.05% · 15h-0.05%15h0.20% · 16h0.20% · 16h0.20%16h-0.10% · 17h-0.10% · 17h-0.10%17h-0.10% · 18h-0.10% · 18h-0.10%18h0.05% · 19h0.05% · 19h0.05%19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h-0.15% · 21h-0.15% · 21h-0.15%21h-0.70% · 22h-0.70% · 22h-0.70%22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+-0.05%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH21% up · 50% down · 29% flat
5 up bars · 12 down · best 0.95% · worst -0.70% · typical |Δ| 0.194%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-1.85%)FINAL-1.85%MAX DD-1.85%RECOVERYONGOING · 22 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9815 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9815, 1.0000]1.00000.9815break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.85% · moderate0%-1.85%▼ TROUGH -1.85%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -1.85%bar 4-25 · 22 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.85%)RECOVERYongoing · 22 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9815 (-1.85%) · max DD -1.85% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +2 / −16 (11% positive) · μ=-23.93 · σ=19.11UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -43.67 (-1.03σ vs μ)57.4728.740.00-28.74-57.47μ = -23.93-26.58-26.58-7.64-7.64-7.64-7.64-29.86-29.86-33.95-33.95-45.28-45.283.043.04-18.63-18.63-25.32-25.32-15.11-15.11-8.06-8.061.421.42-52.09-52.09-25.48-25.480.000.00-12.08-12.08-57.47-57.47-50.27-50.27-43.67-43.67v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -43.669 · range [-57.47, 3.04] · μ -23.931 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=28.9678 · σ=17.7636 · range [8.2395, 54.8682] · R²=0.014▲ RISING +224.62%σ EXTREME 61.32%LAST 26.747054.868243.211031.553919.89678.2395μ = 28.9678max 54.8682min 8.2395dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 26.75% · range [8.24%, 54.87%] · μ 28.97% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.227 · σ=0.255MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.064 (+0.64σ vs μ)0.6180.3090.000-0.309-0.618μ = -0.227-0.565-0.565-0.121-0.121-0.089-0.089-0.028-0.028-0.032-0.032-0.032-0.032-0.278-0.278-0.618-0.618-0.547-0.547-0.578-0.578-0.546-0.546-0.332-0.3320.2370.237-0.139-0.139-0.385-0.385-0.213-0.2130.1330.133-0.109-0.109-0.064-0.064v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.064 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
22.3602
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
8.5160
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1288
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.8116
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8136
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.5757
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5648
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (9 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8697
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0048
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.6385
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1013
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.501 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.06e-5 · top T=2.18h (24.6%) · top-3 cover 58.9%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)3.1e-52.3e-51.6e-57.8e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.36e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.36e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.53e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.53e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.66e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.66e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.70e-6 · 7.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.70e-6 · 7.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.10e-6 · 7.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.10e-6 · 7.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.43e-5 · 19.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.43e-5 · 19.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.67e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.67e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.32e-6 · 5.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.32e-6 · 5.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.13e-5 · 8.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.13e-5 · 8.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.57e-6 · 6.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.57e-6 · 6.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.13e-5 · 24.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.13e-5 · 24.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.93e-5 · 15.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.93e-5 · 15.2% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.18h#2T=4.00h#3T=2.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 24.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.271e-4

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.320pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.78ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0005 · n = 25⚠ low confidence · n < 100
μ per bar
-0.077pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.320pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
1.57pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.78pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0005
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.1¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.59pp · ES₉₅ 0.62pp · method empirical · drift-correcteddrift -0.077pp/bar · quantised: no · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.56⊘ disabled · n < 30
VaR 95%
0.59pp
5th percentile of Δp
ES 95%
0.62pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
97.4pp
peak 1.9¢ → trough 0.1¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
2000.000
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+199900
$100 wins $199900
FractionalUK
1999.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$199900.00
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.006 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.006 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
10.97 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.00 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
31248726390857016206346652850874207590689250194907055138653986525610552660797
NO token ID
12052620258470207641258383971838241143013238776684312234989581429413992852222
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 19:15:47 UTC
Snapshot age
3ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 19:15:47 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
3f02b7fb0bcd6ae377310295d45615383b601d569c85f5c97d62816b9cfe2203 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany100.0¢HL PREDSpain89.6¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?0¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,769.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,664.95HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.62

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Germany vs. Curaçao - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
—
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
—
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-1.000
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-1.000
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-1/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K————ERR
BUY$10.00K————ERR
BUY$100.00K————ERR
SELL$1.00K————ERR
SELL$10.00K————ERR
SELL$100.00K————ERR

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 25 bars
Realized vol (annualised)
—
σ per bar = 0.588098
Mean return (annualised)
—
μ per bar = -0.151566
Sharpe (rf=0)
—
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
97.37%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.00 over 22 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-1/risk · same metrics, JSON