POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · GERMANY VS. CURAÇAO - MORE MARKETS

Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5

YES · live
60.5¢
NO · live
39.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-team-total-home-3pt5 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 6.14%
realized vol (ann.)
108.76%
max drawdown
2.54%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
1.36%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.97%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.54%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.73
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.73
upside/downside
roll spread
0.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
6.14%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change +6.14%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-team-total-home-3pt5/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH6ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
60.5¢
NO · live
39.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.5736 · σ=0.0080 · range [0.5650, 0.5950] · R²=0.572▲ RISING +5.31%σ NORMAL 1.39%LAST 0.59500.59500.58750.58000.57250.5650μ = 0.5736max 0.5950min 0.5650dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.57μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 59.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 60.5%NO 39.5%YES60.5%60.50¢ · odds 1/1.65
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.968 / 1.00 bits (97%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
YES
60.5%60.5¢1.65×▬ +0.00pp
NO
39.5%39.5¢2.53×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=900 · μ=37.5 · σ=30.4 · CV=0.81BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=150255075100μ = 3810050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 900bp moved · peak 100bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
6ms
▲YES mid
60.50¢ (60.50%)
▼NO mid
39.50¢ (39.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$52.2k
≋liquidity $
$17.5k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.5736 · σ=0.0080 · range [0.5650, 0.5950] · R²=0.572▲ RISING +5.31%σ NORMAL 1.39%LAST 0.59500.59500.58750.58000.57250.5650μ = 0.5736max 0.5950min 0.5650dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.57μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 59.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.4264 · σ=0.0080 · range [0.4050, 0.4350] · R²=0.572▼ FALLING -6.90%σ NORMAL 1.87%LAST 0.40500.43500.42750.42000.41250.4050μ = 0.4264max 0.4350min 0.4050dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.57μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 40.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0014 · σ=0.0042 · skew=0.12 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.95 (mesokurtic)864206-0.43ppbin -0.43pp · n=6 · 75.0% peakbin -0.43pp · n=6 · 75.0% peak-0.28pp-0.13pp80.03ppbin 0.03pp · n=8 · 100.0% peakbin 0.03pp · n=8 · 100.0% peak0.18pp0.33pp80.48ppbin 0.48pp · n=8 · 100.0% peakbin 0.48pp · n=8 · 100.0% peak0.63pp0.78pp20.93ppbin 0.93pp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin 0.93pp · n=2 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.12 · kurt=-0.95 · near 13 / mid 11 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.97 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.03)
μ MEAN57.36¢95% CI: [57.05¢, 57.67¢]
σ STD DEV0.80ppσ² = 0.636 · CV = 1.39%
med MEDIAN57.00¢Q₁ 57.00¢ · Q₃ 58.00¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 3.00pp · IQR 1.00pp (1.349σ→1.08pp)
min 56.50¢Q₁ 57.00¢med 57.00¢Q₃ 58.00¢max 59.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.034right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.312mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.45
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.08
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.76
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.003within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.128lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.498random-walk
OLS TREND · t-STAT+5.541significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]random-walk · H = 0.498
H = 0.498RANDOM-WALK
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.003k=2-0.128k=3-0.070k=4-0.122k=5-0.1490+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.54)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.01low · ~ unpredictable|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.54)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2482199
SLUGfifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-team-total-home-3pt5
CATEGORYGermany vs. Curaçao - More Markets
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (61¢)
PRIMARY · YES60.50¢implied prob 60.50% · decimal odds 1.65×
COUNTER · NO39.50¢implied prob 39.50% · decimal odds 2.53×
60.50¢
39.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME52.25k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY17.54k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (61¢)|primary − counter| = 0.210 · entropy 0.968 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 60.5%NO 39.5%YES p̂60.5%H = 0.968 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.65×(61¢)NO2.53×(40¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.968 bits (97% of max) · maximum uncertainty (~50/50)
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-14 17:00 UTC
0days
01hrs
32min
1.5 hours·θ = 3.906 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 60.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 39.5%)
current: $0.6050 · expected return per side: $0.40 on YES hit · $0.60 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+0.8hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.80% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 3.906 pp/day
now1.55h left
3.906 pp/day×1.00
−25%1.16h left
4.511 pp/day×1.15
−50%0.77h left
5.524 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.39h left
7.813 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.15h left
12.353 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.00% · worst -0.50% · typical |Δ| 0.38%MILD BULLISH +3.00%BEST+1.00%15hWORST-0.50%5hTYPICAL |Δ|0.38%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+3.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 3up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.13% · Σ +1.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.13% · Σ +1.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +3.00%+3.00%0.00%0.50% · 1h0.50% · 1h0.50%1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h-0.50% · 5h-0.50% · 5h-0.50%5h▼ WORST0.50% · 6h0.50% · 6h0.50%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h-0.50% · 10h-0.50% · 10h-0.50%10h0.50% · 11h0.50% · 11h0.50%11h-0.50% · 12h-0.50% · 12h-0.50%12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.50% · 14h0.50% · 14h0.50%14h1.00% · 15h1.00% · 15h1.00%15h★ BEST-0.50% · 16h-0.50% · 16h-0.50%16h0.50% · 17h0.50% · 17h0.50%17h0.50% · 18h0.50% · 18h0.50%18h-0.50% · 19h-0.50% · 19h-0.50%19h-0.50% · 20h-0.50% · 20h-0.50%20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.50% · 22h0.50% · 22h0.50%22h1.00% · 23h1.00% · 23h1.00%23h0.50% · 24h0.50% · 24h0.50%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+1.00%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 2BREADTH42% up · 25% down · 33% flat
10 up bars · 6 down · best 1.00% · worst -0.50% · typical |Δ| 0.375%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSTRONG PROFIT +3.02% · SHALLOW DDFINAL+3.02%MAX DD-1.00%RECOVERYFULLY RECOVEREDMAX RUN-UP+3.02%UNDERWATER16/25 (64%)STREAK↗ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0302 · peak 1.0302 · range [0.9999, 1.0302]1.03020.9999break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0302UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.00% · shallow0%-1.00%▼ TROUGH -1.00%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -1.00%bar 20-23 · 4 bars · recovered#2 -0.50%bar 6-15 · 10 bars · recovered#3 -0.50%bar 17-18 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYshallow (max -1.00%)RECOVERYfully recoveredTIME UNDER WATER64% of session · 16/25 bars
final equity 1.0302 (3.02%) · max DD -1.00% · time-under-water 16/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +11 / −4 (58% positive) · μ=11.50 · σ=21.99MIXED EDGELAST 25.76 (+0.65σ vs μ)60.4230.210.00-30.21-60.42μ = 11.5020.7220.720.000.000.000.000.000.00-20.72-20.7220.7220.72-20.72-20.72-20.72-20.720.000.0025.7625.7625.7625.7625.7625.7660.4260.4238.2138.2111.7411.74-15.87-15.8715.8715.8725.7625.7625.7625.76v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 25.761 · range [-20.72, 60.42] · μ 11.497 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=44.7385 · σ=11.4016 · range [29.5973, 62.2013] · R²=0.667▲ RISING +60.88%σ EXTREME 25.49%LAST 56.674562.201354.050345.899337.748329.5973μ = 44.7385max 62.2013min 29.5973dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.67μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 56.67% · range [29.60%, 62.20%] · μ 44.74% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.258 · σ=0.344MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.576 (+2.42σ vs μ)0.7750.3870.000-0.387-0.775μ = -0.258-0.304-0.304-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.304-0.304-0.304-0.304-0.716-0.716-0.775-0.775-0.500-0.500-0.061-0.061-0.242-0.242-0.242-0.242-0.458-0.458-0.367-0.367-0.230-0.230-0.006-0.0060.2360.2360.3030.3030.5760.576v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.576 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.8361
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6583
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.8084
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8755
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.3609
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9107
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.3868
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1655
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (11 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7122
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0124
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.5090
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6107
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.845 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.20e-5 · top T=8.00h (24.4%) · top-3 cover 47.2%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)6.5e-54.8e-53.2e-51.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.19e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.19e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.11e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.11e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.46e-5 · 24.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.46e-5 · 24.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.29e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.29e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.52e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.52e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.54e-5 · 13.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.54e-5 · 13.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.46e-5 · 9.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.46e-5 · 9.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.19e-5 · 8.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.19e-5 · 8.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.45e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.45e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.47e-5 · 9.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.47e-5 · 9.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.73e-5 · 6.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.73e-5 · 6.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.67e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.67e-5 · 6.3% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=8.00h#2T=4.00h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 8.00h (freq 0.125) · concentrates 24.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.646e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3649 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.072pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.18ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2390 · n = 3649✓ n = 3649
μ per bar
+0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.072pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.35pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.18pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.2390
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
60.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.12pp · ES₉₅ 0.15pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 3649
VaR 95%
0.12pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.15pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
2.5pp
peak 59.0¢ → trough 57.5¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
60.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.653
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-153
risk $153 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.65 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$65.29
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 60.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.968 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.968 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.72 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
1.34 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
114631670945208671391582378281347326354477822593538079040310405195233237693822
NO token ID
71910889080774129696127669882835436181755293825279882227111208397305427840420
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 15:27:03 UTC
Snapshot age
6ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 15:27:03 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
00162ba746c4af08426bee902b37345b0fd2d9c0a53edf615fcef1497ba46158 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain89.6¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,006HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,662.6HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.55

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Germany vs. Curaçao - More Markets

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.590000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
339.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.005
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.534
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-team-total-home-3pt5/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.613606400.09bp0.6300004FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.6581251154.66bp0.79000010FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.7579802847.12bp0.99000024PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.580000169.49bp0.5800001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.5144821279.97bp0.25000012FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.4249122798.11bp0.01000024PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,649 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
163.44%
σ per bar = 0.001234
Mean return (annualised)
2863.31%
μ per bar = 0.000016
Sharpe (rf=0)
17.52
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.54%
peak 0.59 → trough 0.57 over 321 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-team-total-home-3pt5/risk · same metrics, JSON