POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · GERMANY VS. CURAÇAO - HALFTIME RESULT

Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime?

YES · live
14.5¢
NO · live
85.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-halftime-result-draw · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
538
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-halftime-result-draw/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
14.5¢
NO · live
85.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.1662 · σ=0.0140 · range [0.1400, 0.1850] · R²=0.772▼ FALLING -20.00%σ HIGH 8.43%LAST 0.14000.18500.17380.16250.15120.1400μ = 0.1662max 0.1850min 0.1400dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.77μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 14.00¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 14.5%NO 85.5%NO85.5%85.50¢ · odds 1/1.17
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.597 / 1.00 bits (60%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
14.5%14.5¢6.90×▬ +0.00pp
NO
85.5%85.5¢1.17×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=950 · μ=39.6 · σ=39.0 · CV=0.98BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=110255075100μ = 4010050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 950bp moved · peak 100bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3ms
▲YES mid
14.50¢ (14.50%)
▼NO mid
85.50¢ (85.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$29.7k
≋liquidity $
$62.5k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1662 · σ=0.0140 · range [0.1400, 0.1850] · R²=0.772▼ FALLING -20.00%σ HIGH 8.43%LAST 0.14000.18500.17380.16250.15120.1400μ = 0.1662max 0.1850min 0.1400dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.77μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 14.00¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8338 · σ=0.0140 · range [0.8150, 0.8600] · R²=0.772▲ RISING +4.24%σ NORMAL 1.68%LAST 0.86000.86000.84880.83750.82620.8150μ = 0.8338max 0.8600min 0.8150dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.77μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 86.00¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0009 · σ=0.0051 · skew=-0.18 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.93 (mesokurtic)1085304-0.90ppbin -0.90pp · n=4 · 40.0% peakbin -0.90pp · n=4 · 40.0% peak-0.70pp5-0.50ppbin -0.50pp · n=5 · 50.0% peakbin -0.50pp · n=5 · 50.0% peak-0.30pp-0.10pp100.10ppbin 0.10pp · n=10 · 100.0% peakbin 0.10pp · n=10 · 100.0% peak0.30pp40.50ppbin 0.50pp · n=4 · 40.0% peakbin 0.50pp · n=4 · 40.0% peak0.70pp10.90ppbin 0.90pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 0.90pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.03 · kurt=-0.55 · near 14 / mid 10 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.67)
μ MEAN16.62¢95% CI: [16.07¢, 17.17¢]
σ STD DEV1.40ppσ² = 1.964 · CV = 8.43%
med MEDIAN17.50¢Q₁ 15.50¢ · Q₃ 17.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 4.50pp · IQR 2.00pp (1.349σ→1.89pp)
min 14.00¢Q₁ 15.50¢med 17.50¢Q₃ 17.50¢max 18.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.672left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.149platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.63
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.95
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.21
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.24 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.238within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.040lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.792strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-8.823significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.792
H = 0.792STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.238k=2+0.040k=3-0.297k=4+0.405k=5-0.1660+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.82)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.24 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.82very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.82)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322381
SLUGfifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-halftime-result-draw
CATEGORYGermany vs. Curaçao - Halftime Result
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (86¢)
PRIMARY · YES14.50¢implied prob 14.50% · decimal odds 6.90×
COUNTER · NO85.50¢implied prob 85.50% · decimal odds 1.17×
14.50¢
85.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME29.74k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY62.53k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (86¢)|primary − counter| = 0.710 · entropy 0.597 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 14.5%NO 85.5%YES p̂14.5%H = 0.597 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES6.90×(14¢)NO1.17×(86¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.597 bits (60% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-14 17:00 UTC
0days
01hrs
02min
1.0 hours·θ = 6.866 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 14.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 85.5%)
current: $0.1450 · expected return per side: $0.85 on YES hit · $0.14 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+0.5hRESOLVESP projection · σ=1.40% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 6.866 pp/day
now1.04h left
6.866 pp/day×1.00
−25%0.78h left
7.928 pp/day×1.15
−50%0.52h left
9.710 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.26h left
13.732 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.10h left
21.712 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.00% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 0.40%BEARISH SESSION -3.50%BEST+1.00%1hWORST-1.00%2hTYPICAL |Δ|0.40%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.19% · Σ -1.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.25% · Σ -2.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.50%+1.00%-3.50%1.00% · 1h1.00% · 1h1.00%1h★ BEST-1.00% · 2h-1.00% · 2h-1.00%2h▼ WORST0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.50% · 5h0.50% · 5h0.50%5h-0.50% · 6h-0.50% · 6h-0.50%6h0.50% · 7h0.50% · 7h0.50%7h-0.50% · 8h-0.50% · 8h-0.50%8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h-0.50% · 10h-0.50% · 10h-0.50%10h0.50% · 11h0.50% · 11h0.50%11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.50% · 13h0.50% · 13h0.50%13h-1.00% · 14h-1.00% · 14h-1.00%14h-0.50% · 15h-0.50% · 15h-0.50%15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h-1.00% · 18h-1.00% · 18h-1.00%18h-1.00% · 19h-1.00% · 19h-1.00%19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h-0.50% · 24h-0.50% · 24h-0.50%24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+0.50%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 2BREADTH21% up · 38% down · 42% flat
5 up bars · 9 down · best 1.00% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 0.396%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-3.47%)FINAL-3.47%MAX DD-4.43%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.00%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9653 · peak 1.0100 · range [0.9653, 1.0100]1.01000.9653break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0100UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.43% · moderate0%-4.43%▼ TROUGH -4.43%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -4.43%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.43%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9653 (-3.47%) · max DD -4.43% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +0 / −14 (0% positive) · μ=-31.94 · σ=32.14UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -55.93 (-0.75σ vs μ)111.0655.530.00-55.53-111.06μ = -31.940.000.00-13.34-13.340.000.000.000.00-15.87-15.87-15.87-15.870.000.000.000.00-13.34-13.34-25.76-25.76-13.34-13.34-30.21-30.21-51.52-51.52-111.06-111.06-79.33-79.33-60.42-60.42-60.42-60.42-60.42-60.42-55.93-55.93v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -55.934 · range [-111.06, 0.00] · μ -31.938 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=48.8215 · σ=6.8667 · range [39.1535, 66.1816] · R²=0.048▼ FALLING -40.84%σ HIGH 14.06%LAST 39.153566.181659.424652.667645.910639.1535μ = 48.8215max 66.1816min 39.1535dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 39.15% · range [39.15%, 66.18%] · μ 48.82% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.240 · σ=0.348MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.071 (+0.49σ vs μ)0.7500.3750.000-0.375-0.750μ = -0.240-0.500-0.500-0.297-0.297-0.750-0.750-0.750-0.750-0.661-0.661-0.661-0.661-0.500-0.500-0.250-0.250-0.419-0.419-0.152-0.152-0.053-0.053-0.146-0.146-0.333-0.3330.2360.236-0.006-0.0060.1670.1670.1670.1670.4170.417-0.071-0.071v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.071 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.1550
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9254
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
10.2150
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0686
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.0566
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9511
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.3488
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7273
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (8 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7881
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0076
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.0186
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3084
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.690 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.54e-5 · top T=2.00h (41.4%) · top-3 cover 63.7%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.8e-41.3e-48.8e-54.4e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.36e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.36e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.31e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.31e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.38e-6 · 2.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.38e-6 · 2.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.67e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.67e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.04e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.04e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.35e-5 · 15.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.35e-5 · 15.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.52e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.52e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.92e-5 · 6.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.92e-5 · 6.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.38e-6 · 2.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.38e-6 · 2.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.03e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.03e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.10e-5 · 7.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.10e-5 · 7.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.76e-4 · 41.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.76e-4 · 41.4% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=4.00h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 41.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.250e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (538 bars · effective 1753103 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.000pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.00ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1240 · n = 538✓ n = 538
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.000pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.00pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.00pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.1240
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
14.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.00pp · ES₉₅ 0.00pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.00pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 538
VaR 95%
0.00pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.00pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
0.0pp
peak 14.5¢ → trough 14.5¢
Median step
0.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
14.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
6.897
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+590
$100 wins $590
FractionalUK
5.90 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$589.66
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 14.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.597 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.597 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
2.79 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.23 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
28182987810194329280357248520745780225999326468406168458771206750618532572123
NO token ID
38524003009512138436931935599059609446119770403612020932015718056427572599485
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 15:57:49 UTC
Snapshot age
3ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 15:57:49 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
acb3fd9b89fd0e9d6d94344c5e90b156b6b04bb130ae0572ccc3a5e6a9ec5061 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.5¢HL PREDSpain89.9¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,008.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,662.85HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.28

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Germany vs. Curaçao - Halftime Result

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.140000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1428.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.048
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.465
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-halftime-result-draw/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1547081050.57bp0.1600002FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.1729902356.41bp0.1800004FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.45971022836.43bp0.99000036PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.127770873.56bp0.1200002FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0533396190.08bp0.01000013PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0533396190.08bp0.01000013PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 538 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
0.00%
σ per bar = 0.000000
Mean return (annualised)
0.00%
μ per bar = 0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
0.00
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
0.00%
peak 0.14 → trough 0.14 over 0 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-halftime-result-draw/risk · same metrics, JSON