POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · GERMANY VS. CURAÇAO - MORE MARKETS

Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5

YES · live

93.5¢

NO · live

6.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-total-1pt5 · fresh · feed 0s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

75.97%

max drawdown

1.06%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

0.43%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.18%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

1.06%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.00

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.00

upside/downside

roll spread

0.0 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

1216

store

spread

—

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-total-1pt5/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →

LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH63ms⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

93.5¢

NO · live

6.5¢

YES price · live 24h

25 ticks · last 93.50¢

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.00% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.347 / 1.00 bits (35%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

93.5%93.5¢1.07×▬ +0.00pp

6.5%6.5¢15.38×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp

Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live

Σ 150bp moved · peak 50bp · n=24 ticks

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

63ms

▲YES mid

93.50¢ (93.50%)

▼NO mid

6.50¢ (6.50%)

ΣΣ sides

100.00%

⚖arb gap

0.000pp

$24h vol $

$82.7k

≋liquidity $

$48.3k

◳history points

25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid

25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 93.50¢

NO price · CLOB mid

25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 6.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments

n=24

Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)

reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics

SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-1.41)

μ MEAN93.40¢95% CI: [93.32¢, 93.48¢]

σ STD DEV0.20ppσ² = 0.042 · CV = 0.22%

med MEDIAN93.50¢Q₁ 93.50¢ · Q₃ 93.50¢

FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.50pp · IQR 0.00pp (1.349σ→0.28pp)

SKEWNESS · G₁-1.411left-skewed

−3−10+1+3

EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.005mesokurtic · normal-like

−30+2+4+6

μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.49

σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.00

range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.45

μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics

TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root

ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.015within white-noise band

ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.691lag-2 dependence detected

H · HURST EXPONENT1.560strongly persistent

OLS TREND · t-STAT+3.973significant @ α=0.05

HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.560

H = 1.560STRONGLY PERSISTENT

0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending

AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=2

OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.97)

−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject

REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis

PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic

TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.97)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58

ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity

MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%

MARKET ID2326758

SLUGfifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-total-1pt5

CATEGORYGermany vs. Curaçao - More Markets

TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (94¢)

PRIMARY · YES93.50¢implied prob 93.50% · decimal odds 1.07×

COUNTER · NO6.50¢implied prob 6.50% · decimal odds 15.38×

93.50¢

6.50¢

Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%

0%50%100% · target110%

Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp

24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE

24H VOLUME82.70k USD 24h

LIQUIDITY48.28k USD

MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient

PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (94¢)|primary − counter| = 0.870 · entropy 0.347 bits

LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin

Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage

FAIR MARKET · no edge

Probability scale (YES)

0%25%50%
fair75%100%

Implied decimal odds

YES1.07×(94¢)NO15.38×(7¢)

Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%

K* full

0.00%

½K half

0.00%

¼K quarter

0.00%

Entropy H(p̂) = 0.347 bits (35% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured

0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)

Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding

K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection

⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-14 17:00 UTC

0days

02hrs

56min

YES →$1.00(P = 93.5%)

NO →$0.00(P = 6.5%)

current: $0.9350 · expected return per side: $0.06 on YES hit · $0.94 on NO hit

Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 1.000 pp/day

now2.94h left

1.000 pp/day×1.00

−25%2.21h left

1.155 pp/day×1.15

−50%1.47h left

1.414 pp/day×1.41

−75%0.74h left

2.000 pp/day×2.00

−90%0.29h left

3.162 pp/day×3.16

θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down

2 up bars · 1 down · best 0.50% · worst -0.50% · typical |Δ| 0.063%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough

final equity 1.0050 (0.50%) · max DD -0.50% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative

latest 0.000 · range [0.00, 38.21] · μ 6.203 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window

Rolling annualised volatility (%)

latest 0.00% · range [0.00%, 35.23%] · μ 10.39% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)

Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)

latest 0.000 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance

4 of 5 REJECT · mixed evidence4 reject·1 pass·1 n/a·α = 0.05

𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC

41.8807

p-VALUE (log scale)

< 0.0001

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC

17.0865

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.0045

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC

-2.8824

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.0478

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

N/An/a

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC

—

p-VALUE (log scale)

—

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC

0.6203

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.0208

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC

-1.4245

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.1543

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n

dominant period ≈ 4.00h (freq 0.250) · concentrates 25.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.750e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1216 bars · effective 1753005 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.057pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.14ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0608 · n = 1216✓ n = 1216

μ per bar

+0.000pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.057pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.28pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move0d

0.14pp

σ × √6

Terminal variancebinary

0.0608

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

93.5¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.09pp · ES₉₅ 0.12pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 1216

VaR 95%

0.09pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.12pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

1.1pp

peak 94.5¢ → trough 93.5¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

93.5%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

1.070

total return per $1

AmericanUS

-1438

risk $1438 to win $100

FractionalUK

0.07 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$6.95

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.347 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.347 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

0.10 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

3.94 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot): gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history): clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID: 53416499025079741876697859950543280965296432624822571010554294357420660500517
NO token ID: 89647682390601100529741939324346299755615041283395192379555184204594816924263
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 14:03:22 UTC
Snapshot age: 63ms
History points: 25 CLOB mids
Page rendered: 2026-06-14 14:03:22 UTC
Storage policy: no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation: 8e8582b79b957413dbc85d63cc810499cecf1bbfa4e8aad79f9563a2febbfac8 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.2¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,255.5 HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,664.75 HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.87

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Germany vs. Curaçao - More Markets

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES

Depth within 1bp

bid $0 · ask $0

Depth within 5bp

bid $0 · ask $0

Depth within 10bp

bid $0 · ask $0

Depth within 50bp

bid $0 · ask $0

Mid price

0.935000

(best bid + best ask) / 2

Spread

107.0bp

(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid

Imbalance (whole book)

-0.109

ask-heavy

Imbalance (top-5)

-0.359

ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-total-1pt5/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

Side	Notional	Avg fill	Slippage	Worst fill	Levels	Status
BUY	$1.00K	0.940000	53.48bp	0.940000	1	FILLED
BUY	$10.00K	0.948204	141.22bp	0.950000	2	FILLED
BUY	$100.00K	0.971866	394.29bp	0.980000	5	FILLED
SELL	$1.00K	0.930000	53.48bp	0.930000	1	FILLED
SELL	$10.00K	0.930000	53.48bp	0.930000	1	FILLED
SELL	$100.00K	0.555222	4061.80bp	0.010000	38	PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,216 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M

Realized vol (annualised)

80.85%

σ per bar = 0.000611

Mean return (annualised)

-0.00%

μ per bar = -0.000000

Sharpe (rf=0)

-0.00

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

1.06%

peak 0.94 → trough 0.94 over 48 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-total-1pt5/risk · same metrics, JSON