POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · GERMANY VS. CURAÇAO - HALFTIME RESULT

Germany leading at halftime?

YES · live
83.5¢
NO · live
16.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-halftime-result-home · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
101.65%
max drawdown
1.20%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.35%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.13%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.19%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
2.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
2.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.5 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1315
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-halftime-result-home/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH15ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
83.5¢
NO · live
16.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.8026 · σ=0.0196 · range [0.7850, 0.8400] · R²=0.689▲ RISING +5.00%σ NORMAL 2.45%LAST 0.84000.84000.82620.81250.79880.7850μ = 0.8026max 0.8400min 0.7850dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.69μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 84.00¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 83.5%NO 16.5%YES83.5%83.50¢ · odds 1/1.20
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.646 / 1.00 bits (65%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
83.5%83.5¢1.20×▬ +0.00pp
NO
16.5%16.5¢6.06×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=1,100 · μ=45.8 · σ=46.4 · CV=1.01BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1603775112150μ = 4615050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 1100bp moved · peak 150bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
15ms
▲YES mid
83.50¢ (83.50%)
▼NO mid
16.50¢ (16.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$192.3k
≋liquidity $
$35.6k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8026 · σ=0.0196 · range [0.7850, 0.8400] · R²=0.689▲ RISING +5.00%σ NORMAL 2.45%LAST 0.84000.84000.82620.81250.79880.7850μ = 0.8026max 0.8400min 0.7850dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.69μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 84.00¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1974 · σ=0.0196 · range [0.1600, 0.2150] · R²=0.689▼ FALLING -20.00%σ HIGH 9.95%LAST 0.16000.21500.20120.18750.17380.1600μ = 0.1974max 0.2150min 0.1600dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.69μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 16.00¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0028 · σ=0.0060 · skew=0.27 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.88 (mesokurtic)1085301-0.88ppbin -0.88pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -0.88pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak-0.63pp5-0.38ppbin -0.38pp · n=5 · 50.0% peakbin -0.38pp · n=5 · 50.0% peak-0.13pp100.12ppbin 0.12pp · n=10 · 100.0% peakbin 0.12pp · n=10 · 100.0% peak0.37pp20.62ppbin 0.62pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin 0.62pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak0.87pp51.12ppbin 1.12pp · n=5 · 50.0% peakbin 1.12pp · n=5 · 50.0% peak11.37ppbin 1.37pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 1.37pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.38 · kurt=-0.67 · near 15 / mid 9 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.73)
μ MEAN80.26¢95% CI: [79.49¢, 81.03¢]
σ STD DEV1.96ppσ² = 3.857 · CV = 2.45%
med MEDIAN79.50¢Q₁ 78.50¢ · Q₃ 81.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 5.50pp · IQR 3.00pp (1.349σ→2.65pp)
min 78.50¢Q₁ 78.50¢med 79.50¢Q₃ 81.50¢max 84.00¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.734right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.123platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.39
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.88
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.80
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.021within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.024lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.041strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+7.144significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.041
H = 1.041STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.021k=2-0.024k=3+0.384k=4-0.182k=5-0.0060+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.14)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.14)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322380
SLUGfifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-halftime-result-home
CATEGORYGermany vs. Curaçao - Halftime Result
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (84¢)
PRIMARY · YES83.50¢implied prob 83.50% · decimal odds 1.20×
COUNTER · NO16.50¢implied prob 16.50% · decimal odds 6.06×
83.50¢
16.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME192.28k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY35.57k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (84¢)|primary − counter| = 0.670 · entropy 0.646 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 83.5%NO 16.5%YES p̂83.5%H = 0.646 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.20×(84¢)NO6.06×(17¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.646 bits (65% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-14 17:00 UTC
0days
03hrs
45min
3.8 hours·θ = 9.621 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 83.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 16.5%)
current: $0.8350 · expected return per side: $0.17 on YES hit · $0.83 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+1.9hRESOLVESP projection · σ=1.96% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 9.621 pp/day
now3.76h left
9.621 pp/day×1.00
−25%2.82h left
11.109 pp/day×1.15
−50%1.88h left
13.606 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.94h left
19.242 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.38h left
30.424 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.50% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 0.46%MILD BULLISH +4.00%BEST+1.50%17hWORST-1.00%15hTYPICAL |Δ|0.46%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+4.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.21% · Σ -1.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.06% · Σ +0.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.56% · Σ +4.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +4.00%+4.00%-1.50%-0.50% · 1h-0.50% · 1h-0.50%1h-0.50% · 2h-0.50% · 2h-0.50%2h-0.50% · 3h-0.50% · 3h-0.50%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h1.00% · 11h1.00% · 11h1.00%11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h-0.50% · 13h-0.50% · 13h-0.50%13h1.00% · 14h1.00% · 14h1.00%14h-1.00% · 15h-1.00% · 15h-1.00%15h▼ WORST1.00% · 16h1.00% · 16h1.00%16h1.50% · 17h1.50% · 17h1.50%17h★ BEST0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h1.00% · 19h1.00% · 19h1.00%19h1.00% · 20h1.00% · 20h1.00%20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h-0.50% · 22h-0.50% · 22h-0.50%22h0.50% · 23h0.50% · 23h0.50%23h0.50% · 24h0.50% · 24h0.50%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+4.50%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH33% up · 25% down · 42% flat
8 up bars · 6 down · best 1.50% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 0.458%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSTRONG PROFIT +4.03% · SHALLOW DDFINAL+4.03%MAX DD-1.49%RECOVERYFULLY RECOVEREDMAX RUN-UP+4.03%UNDERWATER18/25 (72%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0403 · peak 1.0403 · range [0.9851, 1.0403]1.04030.9851break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0403UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.49% · moderate0%-1.49%▼ TROUGH -1.49%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.49%bar 2-17 · 16 bars · recovered#2 -0.50%bar 23-24 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.49%)RECOVERYfully recoveredTIME UNDER WATER72% of session · 18/25 bars
final equity 1.0403 (4.03%) · max DD -1.49% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +14 / −3 (74% positive) · μ=24.13 · σ=47.01PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 66.72 (+0.91σ vs μ)114.6357.310.00-57.31-114.63μ = 24.13-85.44-85.44-60.42-60.42-38.21-38.210.000.000.000.0038.2138.2138.2138.2115.8715.8738.2138.219.749.7426.5826.5831.7331.7331.7331.7359.5159.5159.5159.51114.63114.6360.4260.4251.5251.5266.7266.72v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 66.717 · range [-85.44, 114.63] · μ 24.132 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=52.7889 · σ=29.6454 · range [0.0000, 92.0217] · R²=0.507▲ RISING +113.44%σ EXTREME 56.16%LAST 54.708392.021769.016346.010923.00540.0000μ = 52.7889max 92.0217min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.51μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 54.71% · range [0.00%, 92.02%] · μ 52.79% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −13 (21% positive) · μ=-0.125 · σ=0.300MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.240 (+1.22σ vs μ)0.6290.3150.000-0.315-0.629μ = -0.1250.5000.5000.4170.417-0.033-0.0330.0000.0000.0000.000-0.033-0.033-0.233-0.233-0.075-0.075-0.367-0.367-0.509-0.509-0.629-0.629-0.264-0.264-0.402-0.402-0.408-0.408-0.210-0.210-0.367-0.367-0.083-0.0830.0760.0760.2400.240v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.240 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.9561
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6200
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.4373
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3650
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
0.4512
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9840
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.0813
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9352
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (8 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7310
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0107
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.2070
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8360
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.937 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.91e-5 · top T=3.00h (21.6%) · top-3 cover 50.8%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.0e-47.6e-55.1e-52.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 8.15e-5 · 17.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 8.15e-5 · 17.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.19e-5 · 6.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.19e-5 · 6.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.15e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.15e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.85e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.85e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.81e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.81e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.71e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.71e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.54e-5 · 11.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.54e-5 · 11.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.01e-4 · 21.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.01e-4 · 21.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.33e-5 · 11.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.33e-5 · 11.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.35e-5 · 11.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.35e-5 · 11.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.32e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.32e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.17e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.17e-6 · 0.9% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=24.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 21.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.687e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1315 bars · effective 1752908 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.077pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.19ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1378 · n = 1315✓ n = 1315
μ per bar
+0.002pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.077pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.38pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.19pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.1378
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
83.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.12pp · ES₉₅ 0.16pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.002pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 1315
VaR 95%
0.12pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.16pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
1.2pp
peak 83.5¢ → trough 82.5¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
83.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.198
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-506
risk $506 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.20 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$19.76
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 83.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.646 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.646 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.26 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
2.60 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
49062119193691085430931025288198547179824297211884076800221394312402398088252
NO token ID
61645559729601965747652325443992023588129307080810375896860261625412031474961
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 13:14:10 UTC
Snapshot age
15ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 13:14:10 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
380b215f4b8bfb52cfdd8ab0b18eb3812fa7eeb06f31efaf748a0178c051500b · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.1¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?12¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,318.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,667.05HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.81

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Germany vs. Curaçao - Halftime Result

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.840000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
238.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.531
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.483
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-halftime-result-home/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.850000119.05bp0.8500001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.855758187.60bp0.8600002FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.893871641.33bp0.99000015PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.830000119.05bp0.8300001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.830000119.05bp0.8300001FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.7387391205.49bp0.01000028PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,315 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
122.28%
σ per bar = 0.000924
Mean return (annualised)
4055.10%
μ per bar = 0.000023
Sharpe (rf=0)
33.16
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.20%
peak 0.83 → trough 0.82 over 50 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-halftime-result-home/risk · same metrics, JSON