TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Germany leading at halftime?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “germany · cura · ao” (42 markets)
Top terms: germanycuraaoscoreexactmarkets
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score29.5¢ YES · $129.2k 24h
- Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?4.0¢ YES · $1.25M 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao?1.6¢ YES · $63.7k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao?0.9¢ YES · $76.1k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao?0.4¢ YES · $48.3k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao?4.8¢ YES · $51.2k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao?2.1¢ YES · $60.9k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Curaçao?0.8¢ YES · $48.7k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao?9.5¢ YES · $141.4k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao?3.9¢ YES · $93.0k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao?0.7¢ YES · $37.9k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao?15.5¢ YES · $180.7k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao?5.8¢ YES · $90.3k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao?0.8¢ YES · $36.3k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Curaçao?0.2¢ YES · $30.8k 24h
- Exact Score: Any Other Score?57.5¢ YES · $36.0k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.562.5¢ YES · $42.0k 24h
- Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?94.3¢ YES · $1.66M 24h
- Curaçao leading at halftime?2.6¢ YES · $42.3k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime?14.5¢ YES · $27.2k 24h
- ★ Germany leading at halftime?82.5¢ YES · $216.9k 24h
- Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?2.1¢ YES · $4.49M 24h
- Spread: Germany (-1.5)86.0¢ YES · $114.4k 24h
- Spread: Germany (-2.5)71.5¢ YES · $226.3k 24h
- Spread: Germany (-3.5)50.5¢ YES · $1.11M 24h
- Spread: Germany (-4.5)32.0¢ YES · $90.2k 24h
- Spread: Germany (-5.5)18.0¢ YES · $172.1k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.529.5¢ YES · $60.1k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.597.9¢ YES · $39.3k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.591.5¢ YES · $49.0k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.579.0¢ YES · $58.1k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.558.0¢ YES · $37.9k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.598.7¢ YES · $46.3k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.593.5¢ YES · $81.3k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.582.5¢ YES · $162.1k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.564.5¢ YES · $163.6k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.543.5¢ YES · $717.0k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.527.5¢ YES · $51.3k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.514.5¢ YES · $24.6k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.56.5¢ YES · $58.7k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.51.6¢ YES · $53.5k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score52.5¢ YES · $176.9k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -10.772 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -10.730 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -10.680 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -10.425 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -10.312 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -9.444 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -9.329 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -9.313 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-halftime-result-home · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
98.36%
max drawdown
2.37%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.78%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.38%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.37%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.43
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.43
upside/downside
roll spread
0.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1586
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-halftime-result-home/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →