TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Spread: Germany (-3.5)
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “germany · cura · ao” (44 markets)
Top terms: germanycuraaoscoreexactmarkets
- Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?4.0¢ YES · $2.64M 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao?1.6¢ YES · $86.5k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao?0.9¢ YES · $129.0k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao?0.7¢ YES · $146.2k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $49.7k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao?4.4¢ YES · $83.7k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao?1.8¢ YES · $122.1k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Curaçao?0.6¢ YES · $71.4k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao?9.5¢ YES · $197.6k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao?4.0¢ YES · $129.6k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao?0.7¢ YES · $67.0k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 2 - 3 Curaçao?0.2¢ YES · $31.0k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao?14.5¢ YES · $323.4k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao?6.3¢ YES · $182.0k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao?0.9¢ YES · $63.1k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Curaçao?0.2¢ YES · $56.1k 24h
- Exact Score: Any Other Score?58.5¢ YES · $56.8k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.564.5¢ YES · $94.5k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.534.5¢ YES · $38.3k 24h
- Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?94.0¢ YES · $2.67M 24h
- Curaçao leading at halftime?2.4¢ YES · $65.9k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime?14.0¢ YES · $33.2k 24h
- Germany leading at halftime?83.5¢ YES · $273.7k 24h
- Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?2.4¢ YES · $6.50M 24h
- Spread: Curaçao (-1.5)0.5¢ YES · $63.2k 24h
- Spread: Germany (-1.5)85.5¢ YES · $296.6k 24h
- Spread: Germany (-2.5)71.5¢ YES · $306.0k 24h
- ★ Spread: Germany (-3.5)51.5¢ YES · $3.29M 24h
- Spread: Germany (-4.5)30.5¢ YES · $566.7k 24h
- Spread: Germany (-5.5)20.5¢ YES · $853.6k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.529.0¢ YES · $84.7k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.597.7¢ YES · $56.1k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.592.5¢ YES · $59.4k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.579.5¢ YES · $66.4k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.559.0¢ YES · $92.7k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.598.4¢ YES · $98.3k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.594.5¢ YES · $90.4k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.583.5¢ YES · $447.6k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.565.5¢ YES · $337.8k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.543.5¢ YES · $957.7k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.528.5¢ YES · $92.0k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.516.5¢ YES · $72.1k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.59.0¢ YES · $117.7k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.51.5¢ YES · $88.3k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3.024 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.678 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.611 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.449 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.446 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.443 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.418 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.381 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-spread-home-3pt5 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 6.19%
realized vol (ann.)
102.50%
max drawdown
3.88%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
1.20%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.55%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.36%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
4.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
4.00
upside/downside
roll spread
1.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
6.19%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
- 24h change +6.19%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-spread-home-3pt5/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →