TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “germany · cura · ao” (40 markets)
Top terms: germanycuraaoscoreexactmarkets
- Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?3.8¢ YES · $1.47M 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao?1.3¢ YES · $68.0k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao?0.7¢ YES · $113.3k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao?0.4¢ YES · $73.0k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao?4.3¢ YES · $59.9k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao?1.8¢ YES · $68.5k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Curaçao?0.8¢ YES · $53.4k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao?9.5¢ YES · $161.8k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao?3.9¢ YES · $103.2k 24h
- ★ Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao?0.7¢ YES · $43.0k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao?15.5¢ YES · $244.8k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao?5.5¢ YES · $105.4k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao?0.8¢ YES · $42.7k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Curaçao?0.2¢ YES · $36.1k 24h
- Exact Score: Any Other Score?57.5¢ YES · $39.7k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.563.5¢ YES · $44.6k 24h
- Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?94.4¢ YES · $1.86M 24h
- Curaçao leading at halftime?2.6¢ YES · $48.2k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime?14.5¢ YES · $28.9k 24h
- Germany leading at halftime?83.5¢ YES · $233.7k 24h
- Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?2.3¢ YES · $4.87M 24h
- Spread: Germany (-1.5)87.0¢ YES · $124.4k 24h
- Spread: Germany (-2.5)73.5¢ YES · $246.1k 24h
- Spread: Germany (-3.5)53.5¢ YES · $1.20M 24h
- Spread: Germany (-4.5)34.5¢ YES · $227.7k 24h
- Spread: Germany (-5.5)25.0¢ YES · $441.2k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.528.0¢ YES · $64.5k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.597.8¢ YES · $40.5k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.591.5¢ YES · $50.0k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.578.5¢ YES · $59.3k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.560.5¢ YES · $52.2k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.598.7¢ YES · $53.3k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.594.0¢ YES · $81.6k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.583.5¢ YES · $175.9k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.566.0¢ YES · $193.0k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.545.5¢ YES · $800.0k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.529.5¢ YES · $55.2k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.516.5¢ YES · $40.0k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.59.0¢ YES · $62.4k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.51.7¢ YES · $55.5k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -4.585 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.112 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.086 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.871 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.641 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.597 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.482 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.307 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-2 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
4.98%
max drawdown
20.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
10.25%
RMS drawdown
pain index
7.69%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
20.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.67
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.67
upside/downside
roll spread
1.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
884
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-2/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →