TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “germany · cura · ao” (38 markets)
Top terms: germanycuraaoscoreexactmarkets
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners0.5¢ YES · $71.0k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners99.5¢ YES · $40.1k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners0.5¢ YES · $35.9k 24h
- Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?0.1¢ YES · $5.21M 24h
- ★ Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $111.7k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $162.9k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $158.6k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $51.4k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $119.1k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $160.4k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $97.2k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 1 - 3 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $31.4k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $244.3k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $199.7k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $106.4k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 2 - 3 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $38.4k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $398.7k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $297.6k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $130.2k 24h
- Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Curaçao?0.1¢ YES · $107.2k 24h
- Exact Score: Any Other Score?100.0¢ YES · $316.3k 24h
- Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?100.0¢ YES · $5.71M 24h
- Curaçao leading at halftime?0.1¢ YES · $126.7k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime?0.1¢ YES · $99.6k 24h
- Germany leading at halftime?100.0¢ YES · $543.8k 24h
- Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?0.1¢ YES · $11.34M 24h
- Germany to win the second half?100.0¢ YES · $28.0k 24h
- Spread: Curaçao (-1.5)0.1¢ YES · $97.7k 24h
- Spread: Germany (-1.5)100.0¢ YES · $478.7k 24h
- Spread: Germany (-2.5)100.0¢ YES · $792.3k 24h
- Spread: Germany (-3.5)100.0¢ YES · $6.10M 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5100.0¢ YES · $145.2k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5100.0¢ YES · $158.1k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5100.0¢ YES · $736.4k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5100.0¢ YES · $580.2k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5100.0¢ YES · $1.49M 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5100.0¢ YES · $747.3k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners45.5¢ YES · $40.7k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -4.530 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.351 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.946 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.723 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.371 | 94 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.049 | 94 | no rejection · independent | |
| -3.036 | 94 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.742 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-0 · fresh · feed 1s oldrealized vol (ann.)
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max drawdown
—
sharpe
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ulcer index
—
RMS drawdown
pain index
—
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
—
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
—
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
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upside/downside
roll spread
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implied (price-only)
bars used
0
insufficient
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%
- insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-0/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →