TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “te · ivoire · ecuador” (41 markets)

Top terms: teivoireecuadorscoreexactmarkets

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peert-statnVerdict
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners-7.63879▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners-6.867100▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half-4.836124▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?-3.632124▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score-3.611124▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?-3.575124▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador?-3.073124no rejection · independent
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?-2.473124no rejection · independent

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-team-total-away-1pt5 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
622.88%
max drawdown
59.42%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
23.90%
RMS drawdown
pain index
12.07%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
57.11%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.29
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.29
upside/downside
roll spread
14.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
765
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-team-total-away-1pt5/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →