POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · CÔTE D'IVOIRE VS. ECUADOR - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 3 Ecuador?

YES · live
0.5¢
NO · live
99.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-3 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
116.47%
max drawdown
84.72%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
42.60%
RMS drawdown
pain index
30.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
77.78%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.23
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.23
upside/downside
roll spread
52.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
394
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-3/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH11ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.5¢
NO · live
99.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0232 · σ=0.0067 · range [0.0055, 0.0330] · R²=0.001▼ FALLING -75.00%σ EXTREME 28.99%LAST 0.00550.03300.02610.01920.01240.0055μ = 0.0232max 0.0330min 0.0055dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 0.55¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.5%NO 99.5%NO99.5%99.45¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.049 / 1.00 bits (5%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.5%0.5¢181.82×▬ +0.00pp
NO
99.5%99.5¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=855 · μ=35.6 · σ=55.0 · CV=1.54BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=16063125188250μ = 3625050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 855bp moved · peak 250bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
11ms
▲YES mid
0.55¢ (0.55%)
▼NO mid
99.45¢ (99.45%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$85.1k
≋liquidity $
$12.2k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0232 · σ=0.0067 · range [0.0055, 0.0330] · R²=0.001▼ FALLING -75.00%σ EXTREME 28.99%LAST 0.00550.03300.02610.01920.01240.0055μ = 0.0232max 0.0330min 0.0055dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.55¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9768 · σ=0.0067 · range [0.9670, 0.9945] · R²=0.001▲ RISING +1.69%σ LOW 0.69%LAST 0.99450.99450.98760.98080.97390.9670μ = 0.9768max 0.9945min 0.9670dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.45¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0010 · σ=0.0059 · skew=-1.87 (left-skewed) · kurt=5.85 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1186301-2.31ppbin -2.31pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin -2.31pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak-1.95pp-1.57pp-1.21pp1-0.84ppbin -0.84pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin -0.84pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak3-0.47ppbin -0.47pp · n=3 · 27.3% peakbin -0.47pp · n=3 · 27.3% peak11-0.10ppbin -0.10pp · n=11 · 100.0% peakbin -0.10pp · n=11 · 100.0% peak60.27ppbin 0.27pp · n=6 · 54.5% peakbin 0.27pp · n=6 · 54.5% peak10.64ppbin 0.64pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 0.64pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak11.01ppbin 1.01pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 1.01pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-1.96 · kurt=6.47 · near 11 / mid 12 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.89 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-1.75σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.94)
μ MEAN2.32¢95% CI: [2.06¢, 2.59¢]
σ STD DEV0.67ppσ² = 0.454 · CV = 28.99%
med MEDIAN2.25¢Q₁ 2.05¢ · Q₃ 2.80¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 2.75pp · IQR 0.75pp (1.349σ→0.91pp)
min 0.55¢Q₁ 2.05¢med 2.25¢Q₃ 2.80¢max 3.30¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.944left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.508mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.11
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.21
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.08
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.177within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.045lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.888strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+0.181fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.888
H = 0.888STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.177k=2+0.045k=3+0.007k=4-0.230k=5+0.1030+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.18)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.95very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.18)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322460
SLUGfifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-3
CATEGORYCôte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (99¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.55¢implied prob 0.55% · decimal odds 181.82×
COUNTER · NO99.45¢implied prob 99.45% · decimal odds 1.01×
0.55¢
99.45¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME85.13k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY12.16k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (99¢)|primary − counter| = 0.989 · entropy 0.049 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.5%NO 99.5%YES p̂0.5%H = 0.049 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES181.82×(1¢)NO1.01×(99¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.049 bits (5% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.20% · worst -2.50% · typical |Δ| 0.36%MILD BEARISH -1.65%BEST+1.20%7hWORST-2.50%23hTYPICAL |Δ|0.36%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.65%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.06% · Σ +0.45%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.23% · Σ -1.85%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.65%+1.10%-1.65%-0.30% · 1h-0.30% · 1h-0.30%1h0.15% · 2h0.15% · 2h0.15%2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h-0.05% · 4h-0.05% · 4h-0.05%4h-0.05% · 5h-0.05% · 5h-0.05%5h-0.50% · 6h-0.50% · 6h-0.50%6h1.20% · 7h1.20% · 7h1.20%7h★ BEST0.20% · 8h0.20% · 8h0.20%8h0.25% · 9h0.25% · 9h0.25%9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h-0.95% · 11h-0.95% · 11h-0.95%11h0.05% · 12h0.05% · 12h0.05%12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.05% · 14h0.05% · 14h0.05%14h0.40% · 15h0.40% · 15h0.40%15h0.15% · 16h0.15% · 16h0.15%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h-0.15% · 18h-0.15% · 18h-0.15%18h0.30% · 19h0.30% · 19h0.30%19h-0.05% · 20h-0.05% · 20h-0.05%20h-0.30% · 21h-0.30% · 21h-0.30%21h0.70% · 22h0.70% · 22h0.70%22h-2.50% · 23h-2.50% · 23h-2.50%23h▼ WORST-0.25% · 24h-0.25% · 24h-0.25%24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+0.45%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH42% up · 42% down · 17% flat
10 up bars · 10 down · best 1.20% · worst -2.50% · typical |Δ| 0.356%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.69%)FINAL-1.69%MAX DD-2.74%RECOVERYONGOING · 2 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.09%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9831 · peak 1.0109 · range [0.9831, 1.0109]1.01090.9831break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0109UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.74% · moderate0%-2.74%▼ TROUGH -2.74%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -2.74%bar 24-25 · 2 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.95%bar 12-22 · 11 bars · recovered#3 -0.75%bar 2-7 · 6 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.74%)RECOVERYongoing · 2 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 0.9831 (-1.69%) · max DD -2.74% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +11 / −8 (58% positive) · μ=9.46 · σ=31.96MIXED EDGELAST -29.30 (-1.21σ vs μ)66.2633.130.00-33.13-66.26μ = 9.46-50.00-50.0020.5320.5321.8721.8728.8328.8330.4030.404.254.2517.0517.05-15.91-15.91-21.94-21.94-15.44-15.44-10.09-10.0966.2666.2637.6637.6657.9657.9647.5847.58-3.66-3.6621.5821.58-27.84-27.84-29.30-29.30v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -29.300 · range [-50.00, 66.26] · μ 9.462 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=45.7158 · σ=26.5335 · range [14.3224, 104.8792] · R²=0.010▲ RISING +377.82%σ EXTREME 58.04%LAST 104.6422104.879282.240059.600836.961614.3224μ = 45.7158max 104.8792min 14.3224dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 104.64% · range [14.32%, 104.88%] · μ 45.72% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.155 · σ=0.163MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.354 (-1.22σ vs μ)0.3750.1880.000-0.188-0.375μ = -0.155-0.098-0.098-0.316-0.316-0.264-0.264-0.286-0.286-0.332-0.332-0.136-0.1360.1230.123-0.053-0.053-0.162-0.162-0.094-0.0940.0510.0510.0280.0280.1690.169-0.150-0.150-0.195-0.195-0.195-0.195-0.375-0.375-0.303-0.303-0.354-0.354v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.354 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
87.1602
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.9155
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7156
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.9385
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3245
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.0000
p-VALUE (log scale)
1.0000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (11 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1283
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4820
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.3203
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1867
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.598 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.21e-5 · top T=2.40h (25.4%) · top-3 cover 60.1%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.3e-49.6e-56.4e-53.2e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.85e-5 · 5.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.85e-5 · 5.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.04e-5 · 12.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.04e-5 · 12.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.24e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.24e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.21e-5 · 18.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.21e-5 · 18.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.74e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.74e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.68e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.68e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.79e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.79e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.29e-5 · 16.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.29e-5 · 16.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.76e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.76e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.29e-4 · 25.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.29e-4 · 25.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.88e-5 · 9.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.88e-5 · 9.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.11e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.11e-5 · 4.2% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=6.00h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 25.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 5.052e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (394 bars · effective 1753103 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.088pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.22ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0055 · n = 394✓ n = 394
μ per bar
-0.006pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.088pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.43pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.22pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0055
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.15pp · ES₉₅ 0.19pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.006pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.30pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 394
VaR 95%
0.15pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.19pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
84.7pp
peak 3.6¢ → trough 0.5¢
Median step
0.30pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
181.818
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+18082
$100 wins $18082
FractionalUK
180.82 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$18081.82
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.049 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.049 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
7.51 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.01 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
102864183115038778795632261279495582398932358939114856623166342606648679201841
NO token ID
53765221824917519780521387213283710780871712411395417515166218833881668250611
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-15 00:25:09 UTC
Snapshot age
11ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-15 00:25:09 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
3e4e3ee481d571d55f70e797d0f1b3ad58ef0a3f462452cf174609cd0e384f12 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.003000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
13333.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-1.000
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.957
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-3/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.089247287489.14bp0.53200024FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.4551721507240.17bp0.90000034FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.8635462868486.83bp0.98000043FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0010006666.67bp0.0010001PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0010006666.67bp0.0010001PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0010006666.67bp0.0010001PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 394 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
6655.33%
σ per bar = 0.050265
Mean return (annualised)
-749258.29%
μ per bar = -0.004274
Sharpe (rf=0)
-112.58
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
84.72%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.01 over 284 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-3/risk · same metrics, JSON