POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · CÔTE D'IVOIRE VS. ECUADOR - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 3 Ecuador?

YES · live
0.1¢
NO · live
99.9¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-3 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
132.47%
max drawdown
90.32%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
46.03%
RMS drawdown
pain index
26.92%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
90.32%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.81
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.81
upside/downside
roll spread
28.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
424
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-3/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH6ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.1¢
NO · live
99.9¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0118 · σ=0.0060 · range [0.0015, 0.0240] · R²=0.506▼ FALLING -90.63%σ EXTREME 50.58%LAST 0.00150.02400.01840.01280.00710.0015μ = 0.0118max 0.0240min 0.0015dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.51μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 0.15¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.1%NO 99.9%NO99.9%99.85¢ · odds 1/1.00
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.016 / 1.00 bits (2%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.1%0.1¢666.67×▬ +0.00pp
NO
99.9%99.9¢1.00×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=725 · μ=30.2 · σ=36.4 · CV=1.21BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=110306090120μ = 3012050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 725bp moved · peak 120bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
6ms
▲YES mid
0.15¢ (0.15%)
▼NO mid
99.85¢ (99.85%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$128.7k
≋liquidity $
$16.4k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0118 · σ=0.0060 · range [0.0015, 0.0240] · R²=0.506▼ FALLING -90.63%σ EXTREME 50.58%LAST 0.00150.02400.01840.01280.00710.0015μ = 0.0118max 0.0240min 0.0015dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.51μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.15¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9882 · σ=0.0060 · range [0.9760, 0.9985] · R²=0.506▲ RISING +1.47%σ LOW 0.60%LAST 0.99850.99850.99290.98720.98160.9760μ = 0.9882max 0.9985min 0.9760dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.51μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.85¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0005 · σ=0.0043 · skew=-0.47 (symmetric) · kurt=1.27 (leptokurtic (fat tails))13107302-1.09ppbin -1.09pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakbin -1.09pp · n=2 · 15.4% peak-0.89pp-0.67pp1-0.46ppbin -0.46pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin -0.46pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak3-0.25ppbin -0.25pp · n=3 · 23.1% peakbin -0.25pp · n=3 · 23.1% peak13-0.04ppbin -0.04pp · n=13 · 100.0% peakbin -0.04pp · n=13 · 100.0% peak0.17pp30.38ppbin 0.38pp · n=3 · 23.1% peakbin 0.38pp · n=3 · 23.1% peak0.59pp20.80ppbin 0.80pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakbin 0.80pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.45 · kurt=1.21 · near 14 / mid 10 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.97 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN1.18¢95% CI: [0.95¢, 1.41¢]
σ STD DEV0.60ppσ² = 0.356 · CV = 50.58%
med MEDIAN1.05¢Q₁ 0.70¢ · Q₃ 1.60¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 2.25pp · IQR 0.90pp (1.349σ→0.81pp)
min 0.15¢Q₁ 0.70¢med 1.05¢Q₃ 1.60¢max 2.40¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.104approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.980mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.22
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.89
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.77
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.40 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.404within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.122lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.708strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-4.854significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.708
H = 0.708STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.404k=2+0.122k=3+0.106k=4-0.285k=5+0.0250+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.85)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.40 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.82very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.85)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322465
SLUGfifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-3
CATEGORYCôte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (100¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.15¢implied prob 0.15% · decimal odds 666.67×
COUNTER · NO99.85¢implied prob 99.85% · decimal odds 1.00×
0.15¢
99.85¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME128.68k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY16.40k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (100¢)|primary − counter| = 0.997 · entropy 0.016 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.1%NO 99.9%YES p̂0.1%H = 0.016 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES666.67×(0¢)NO1.00×(100¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.016 bits (2% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.90% · worst -1.20% · typical |Δ| 0.30%BEARISH SESSION -1.45%BEST+0.90%7hWORST-1.20%11hTYPICAL |Δ|0.30%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.45%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.11% · Σ +0.80%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.23% · Σ -1.80%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.06% · Σ -0.45%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.45%+0.80%-1.45%-0.15% · 1h-0.15% · 1h-0.15%1h0.30% · 2h0.30% · 2h0.30%2h-0.35% · 3h-0.35% · 3h-0.35%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.40% · 5h0.40% · 5h0.40%5h-0.30% · 6h-0.30% · 6h-0.30%6h0.90% · 7h0.90% · 7h0.90%7h★ BEST-0.45% · 8h-0.45% · 8h-0.45%8h0.05% · 9h0.05% · 9h0.05%9h-0.10% · 10h-0.10% · 10h-0.10%10h-1.20% · 11h-1.20% · 11h-1.20%11h▼ WORST0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h-0.10% · 15h-0.10% · 15h-0.10%15h0.45% · 16h0.45% · 16h0.45%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h-0.05% · 18h-0.05% · 18h-0.05%18h-0.05% · 19h-0.05% · 19h-0.05%19h-0.15% · 20h-0.15% · 20h-0.15%20h-0.30% · 21h-0.30% · 21h-0.30%21h0.80% · 22h0.80% · 22h0.80%22h-1.15% · 23h-1.15% · 23h-1.15%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+0.80%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 4BREADTH25% up · 50% down · 25% flat
6 up bars · 12 down · best 0.90% · worst -1.20% · typical |Δ| 0.302%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.47%)FINAL-1.47%MAX DD-2.24%RECOVERYONGOING · 17 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.80%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9853 · peak 1.0080 · range [0.9853, 1.0080]1.00800.9853break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0080UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.24% · moderate0%-2.24%▼ TROUGH -2.24%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -2.24%bar 9-25 · 17 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.35%bar 4-5 · 2 bars · recovered#3 -0.30%bar 7-7 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.24%)RECOVERYongoing · 17 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9853 (-1.47%) · max DD -2.24% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=-5.42 · σ=25.99MIXED EDGELAST -21.19 (-0.61σ vs μ)54.7427.370.00-27.37-54.74μ = -5.42-5.02-5.0231.2831.285.945.9419.0719.0715.7015.70-25.01-25.01-18.17-18.17-54.74-54.74-39.93-39.93-45.87-45.87-23.95-23.9527.8627.8623.4023.4019.1619.167.147.14-6.18-6.1810.0910.09-22.51-22.51-21.19-21.19v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -21.193 · range [-54.74, 31.28] · μ -5.418 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=41.2727 · σ=15.5874 · range [18.3448, 64.2791] · R²=0.047▲ RISING +101.22%σ EXTREME 37.77%LAST 58.556064.279152.795541.311929.828318.3448μ = 41.2727max 64.2791min 18.3448dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 58.56% · range [18.34%, 64.28%] · μ 41.27% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.344 · σ=0.234MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.634 (-1.24σ vs μ)0.7320.3660.000-0.366-0.732μ = -0.344-0.547-0.547-0.428-0.428-0.602-0.602-0.732-0.732-0.686-0.686-0.231-0.231-0.236-0.236-0.291-0.291-0.167-0.167-0.189-0.189-0.052-0.052-0.358-0.358-0.325-0.325-0.274-0.274-0.172-0.1720.1590.159-0.219-0.219-0.557-0.557-0.634-0.634v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.634 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
4.1950
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1228
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.7510
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1692
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.7053
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4356
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.2039
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0275
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6455
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0185
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.6084
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1078
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.511 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.25e-5 · top T=2.40h (26.9%) · top-3 cover 61.3%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)7.3e-55.4e-53.6e-51.8e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.41e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.41e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.89e-5 · 10.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.89e-5 · 10.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.12e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.12e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.54e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.54e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.62e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.62e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.85e-5 · 6.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.85e-5 · 6.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.01e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.01e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.55e-5 · 20.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.55e-5 · 20.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.36e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.36e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.26e-5 · 26.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.26e-5 · 26.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.75e-5 · 13.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.75e-5 · 13.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.50e-5 · 9.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.50e-5 · 9.3% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=3.00h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 26.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.702e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (424 bars · effective 1753103 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.100pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.25ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0015 · n = 424✓ n = 424
μ per bar
-0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.100pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.49pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.25pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0015
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.1¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.17pp · ES₉₅ 0.21pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.15pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 424
VaR 95%
0.17pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.21pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
90.3pp
peak 1.6¢ → trough 0.1¢
Median step
0.15pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
666.667
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+66567
$100 wins $66567
FractionalUK
665.67 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$66566.67
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.016 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.016 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
9.38 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.00 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
1257663885423704419125890647384192937339465879490418998205434370519493852728
NO token ID
13514789493787894974030853248913799865320641698008640022460369670992104148264
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-15 00:25:10 UTC
Snapshot age
6ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-15 00:25:10 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
279451366e35e5d8276a490f3e889b7e50043d0955b3e65f84af691366e2ffdc · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDDraw100.0¢HL PREDSpain91.3¢HL PREDUruguay65.7¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?83¢POLYMARKETWill Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?0¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$65,675HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,724.8HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$63.82

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.001500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6666.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.665
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.977
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-3/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.108631714205.89bp0.51300020FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.5042783351856.56bp0.90000030FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.8798975855980.81bp0.98900038FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0010003333.33bp0.0010001PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0010003333.33bp0.0010001PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0010003333.33bp0.0010001PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 424 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
19738.29%
σ per bar = 0.149075
Mean return (annualised)
-574542.85%
μ per bar = -0.003277
Sharpe (rf=0)
-29.11
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
90.32%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.00 over 84 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-3/risk · same metrics, JSON