POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · CÔTE D'IVOIRE VS. ECUADOR - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador?

YES · live
4.5¢
NO · live
95.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-0 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
75.78%
max drawdown
18.18%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
8.63%
RMS drawdown
pain index
4.59%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
18.18%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.33
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.33
upside/downside
roll spread
8.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
459
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-0/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
4.5¢
NO · live
95.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0570 · σ=0.0063 · range [0.0450, 0.0650] · R²=0.558▼ FALLING -23.08%σ HIGH 11.04%LAST 0.05000.06500.06000.05500.05000.0450μ = 0.0570max 0.0650min 0.0450dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.56μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 5.00¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 4.5%NO 95.5%NO95.5%95.50¢ · odds 1/1.05
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.265 / 1.00 bits (26%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
4.5%4.5¢22.22×▬ +0.00pp
NO
95.5%95.5¢1.05×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=550 · μ=22.9 · σ=36.1 · CV=1.57BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=120255075100μ = 2310050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 550bp moved · peak 100bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5ms
▲YES mid
4.50¢ (4.50%)
▼NO mid
95.50¢ (95.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$132.3k
≋liquidity $
$4.9k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0570 · σ=0.0063 · range [0.0450, 0.0650] · R²=0.558▼ FALLING -23.08%σ HIGH 11.04%LAST 0.05000.06500.06000.05500.05000.0450μ = 0.0570max 0.0650min 0.0450dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.56μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 5.00¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9430 · σ=0.0063 · range [0.9350, 0.9550] · R²=0.558▲ RISING +1.60%σ LOW 0.67%LAST 0.95000.95500.95000.94500.94000.9350μ = 0.9430max 0.9550min 0.9350dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.56μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 95.00¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0001 · σ=0.0040 · skew=-0.61 (left-skewed) · kurt=0.77 (mesokurtic)16128402-0.90ppbin -0.90pp · n=2 · 12.5% peakbin -0.90pp · n=2 · 12.5% peak-0.70pp3-0.50ppbin -0.50pp · n=3 · 18.8% peakbin -0.50pp · n=3 · 18.8% peak-0.30pp-0.10pp160.10ppbin 0.10pp · n=16 · 100.0% peakbin 0.10pp · n=16 · 100.0% peak0.30pp20.50ppbin 0.50pp · n=2 · 12.5% peakbin 0.50pp · n=2 · 12.5% peak0.70pp10.90ppbin 0.90pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakbin 0.90pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.20 · kurt=1.35 · near 11 / mid 13 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.91 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN5.70¢95% CI: [5.45¢, 5.95¢]
σ STD DEV0.63ppσ² = 0.396 · CV = 11.04%
med MEDIAN5.50¢Q₁ 5.50¢ · Q₃ 6.00¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 2.00pp · IQR 0.50pp (1.349σ→0.85pp)
min 4.50¢Q₁ 5.50¢med 5.50¢Q₃ 6.00¢max 6.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.385approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.709mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.32
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.70
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.18
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.031within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.378lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.731strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.386significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.731
H = 0.731STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.031k=2-0.378k=3-0.078k=4+0.169k=5-0.0720+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.39)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.49high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.39)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322455
SLUGfifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-0
CATEGORYCôte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (96¢)
PRIMARY · YES4.50¢implied prob 4.50% · decimal odds 22.22×
COUNTER · NO95.50¢implied prob 95.50% · decimal odds 1.05×
4.50¢
95.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME132.31k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY4.90k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (96¢)|primary − counter| = 0.910 · entropy 0.265 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 4.5%NO 95.5%YES p̂4.5%H = 0.265 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES22.22×(5¢)NO1.05×(96¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.265 bits (26% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.00% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 0.23%BEARISH SESSION -1.50%BEST+1.00%14hWORST-1.00%12hTYPICAL |Δ|0.23%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.13% · Σ -1.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.13% · Σ -1.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.50%+0.00%-2.00%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h-0.50% · 4h-0.50% · 4h-0.50%4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.50% · 6h0.50% · 6h0.50%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h-0.50% · 8h-0.50% · 8h-0.50%8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h-0.50% · 11h-0.50% · 11h-0.50%11h-1.00% · 12h-1.00% · 12h-1.00%12h▼ WORST0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h1.00% · 14h1.00% · 14h1.00%14h★ BEST0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h-1.00% · 23h-1.00% · 23h-1.00%23h0.50% · 24h0.50% · 24h0.50%24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+0.00%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 2BREADTH13% up · 21% down · 67% flat
3 up bars · 5 down · best 1.00% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 0.229%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-1.51%)FINAL-1.51%MAX DD-2.00%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9849 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9800, 1.0000]1.00000.9800break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.00% · moderate0%-2.00%▼ TROUGH -2.00%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -2.00%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.00%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9849 (-1.51%) · max DD -2.00% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +2 / −10 (11% positive) · μ=-11.99 · σ=29.14UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -15.87 (-0.13σ vs μ)76.4238.210.00-38.21-76.42μ = -11.990.000.000.000.00-20.72-20.72-20.72-20.720.000.00-20.72-20.72-76.42-76.42-76.42-76.42-11.74-11.74-11.74-11.74-11.74-11.740.000.0038.2138.2138.2138.210.000.000.000.000.000.00-38.21-38.21-15.87-15.87v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -15.866 · range [-76.42, 38.21] · μ -11.993 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=35.6492 · σ=19.3399 · range [0.0000, 62.2013] · R²=0.029▲ RISING +55.46%σ EXTREME 54.25%LAST 46.010962.201346.651031.100615.55030.0000μ = 35.6492max 62.2013min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 46.01% · range [0.00%, 62.20%] · μ 35.65% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −8 (21% positive) · μ=-0.018 · σ=0.156MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.489 (-3.02σ vs μ)0.4890.2440.000-0.244-0.489μ = -0.0180.0000.0000.0000.000-0.010-0.010-0.010-0.0100.0000.000-0.069-0.0690.0670.067-0.133-0.1330.1670.1670.2040.2040.2230.2230.0000.000-0.233-0.233-0.033-0.0330.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000-0.033-0.033-0.489-0.489v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.489 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
4.0838
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1298
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.3207
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3782
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.7683
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4056
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.0299
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3031
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (6 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6595
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0172
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.8819
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3778
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.732 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.77e-5 · top T=4.00h (22.1%) · top-3 cover 48.9%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)4.7e-53.5e-52.3e-51.2e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.36e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.36e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.79e-5 · 8.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.79e-5 · 8.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.10e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.10e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.19e-5 · 10.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.19e-5 · 10.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.84e-5 · 13.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.84e-5 · 13.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.69e-5 · 22.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.69e-5 · 22.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.66e-5 · 12.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.66e-5 · 12.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.13e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.13e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.86e-5 · 13.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.86e-5 · 13.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.09e-6 · 3.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.09e-6 · 3.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.33e-6 · 4.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.33e-6 · 4.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.37e-6 · 4.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.37e-6 · 4.4% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=4.00h#2T=2.67h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.00h (freq 0.250) · concentrates 22.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.125e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (459 bars · effective 1753103 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.057pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.14ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0430 · n = 459✓ n = 459
μ per bar
-0.002pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.057pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.28pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.14pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0430
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
4.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.10pp · ES₉₅ 0.12pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.002pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 459
VaR 95%
0.10pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.12pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
18.2pp
peak 5.5¢ → trough 4.5¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
4.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
22.222
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+2122
$100 wins $2122
FractionalUK
21.22 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$2122.22
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 4.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.265 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.265 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
4.47 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.07 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
108722338629687533728257745654425466798308190591826325679337190948807590255529
NO token ID
76363108653444206800280038085004474514838823432140152303656025930738920911229
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-15 00:24:42 UTC
Snapshot age
5ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-15 00:24:42 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
7d7b55ff5c4d0959429380679455806be7b926a52e678ba7f6967f3d3409f9c7 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.050000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4000.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.889
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.118
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-0/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.22015734031.38bp0.54000010FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.693321128664.28bp0.98000026FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.902409170481.83bp0.99000027PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0337663246.89bp0.0100003PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0337663246.89bp0.0100003PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0337663246.89bp0.0100003PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 459 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1496.10%
σ per bar = 0.011299
Mean return (annualised)
-76811.42%
μ per bar = -0.000438
Sharpe (rf=0)
-51.34
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
18.18%
peak 0.06 → trough 0.04 over 368 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-0/risk · same metrics, JSON