POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · CÔTE D'IVOIRE VS. ECUADOR - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador?

YES · live
4.0¢
NO · live
96.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-2 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
129.57%
max drawdown
52.94%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
20.25%
RMS drawdown
pain index
12.31%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.11%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
47.87%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.18
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.18
upside/downside
roll spread
22.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
546
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-2/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
4.0¢
NO · live
96.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0792 · σ=0.0148 · range [0.0300, 0.0900] · R²=0.017▼ FALLING -57.14%σ EXTREME 18.65%LAST 0.03000.09000.07500.06000.04500.0300μ = 0.0792max 0.0900min 0.0300dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 3.00¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 4.0%NO 96.0%NO96.0%96.00¢ · odds 1/1.04
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.242 / 1.00 bits (24%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
4.0%4.0¢25.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
96.0%96.0¢1.04×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=1,500 · μ=62.5 · σ=85.0 · CV=1.36BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=210100200300400μ = 6240050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 1500bp moved · peak 400bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1ms
▲YES mid
4.00¢ (4.00%)
▼NO mid
96.00¢ (96.00%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$69.6k
≋liquidity $
$6.6k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0792 · σ=0.0148 · range [0.0300, 0.0900] · R²=0.017▼ FALLING -57.14%σ EXTREME 18.65%LAST 0.03000.09000.07500.06000.04500.0300μ = 0.0792max 0.0900min 0.0300dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 3.00¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9208 · σ=0.0148 · range [0.9100, 0.9700] · R²=0.017▲ RISING +4.30%σ NORMAL 1.60%LAST 0.97000.97000.95500.94000.92500.9100μ = 0.9208max 0.9700min 0.9100dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 97.00¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0025 · σ=0.0092 · skew=-2.10 (left-skewed) · kurt=5.99 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1186301-3.75ppbin -3.75pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin -3.75pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak-3.25pp-2.75pp-2.25pp-1.75pp2-1.25ppbin -1.25pp · n=2 · 18.2% peakbin -1.25pp · n=2 · 18.2% peak2-0.75ppbin -0.75pp · n=2 · 18.2% peakbin -0.75pp · n=2 · 18.2% peak11-0.25ppbin -0.25pp · n=11 · 100.0% peakbin -0.25pp · n=11 · 100.0% peak30.25ppbin 0.25pp · n=3 · 27.3% peakbin 0.25pp · n=3 · 27.3% peak50.75ppbin 0.75pp · n=5 · 45.5% peakbin 0.75pp · n=5 · 45.5% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-2.11 · kurt=5.56 · near 14 / mid 9 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.90 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-1.69σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=3.23)
μ MEAN7.92¢95% CI: [7.34¢, 8.50¢]
σ STD DEV1.48ppσ² = 2.181 · CV = 18.65%
med MEDIAN8.50¢Q₁ 7.50¢ · Q₃ 9.00¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 6.00pp · IQR 1.50pp (1.349σ→1.99pp)
min 3.00¢Q₁ 7.50¢med 8.50¢Q₃ 9.00¢max 9.00¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.899left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂3.229leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.39
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.33
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.06
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.044within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.264lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.920strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.630fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.920
H = 0.920STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.044k=2+0.264k=3-0.030k=4+0.061k=5-0.0980+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.63)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.88very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.63)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322457
SLUGfifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-2
CATEGORYCôte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (96¢)
PRIMARY · YES4.00¢implied prob 4.00% · decimal odds 25.00×
COUNTER · NO96.00¢implied prob 96.00% · decimal odds 1.04×
4.00¢
96.00¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME69.64k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY6.61k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (96¢)|primary − counter| = 0.920 · entropy 0.242 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 4.0%NO 96.0%YES p̂4.0%H = 0.242 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES25.00×(4¢)NO1.04×(96¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.242 bits (24% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.00% · worst -4.00% · typical |Δ| 0.62%BEARISH SESSION -4.00%BEST+1.00%22hWORST-4.00%23hTYPICAL |Δ|0.62%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-4.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.21% · Σ +1.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.06% · Σ +0.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.56% · Σ -4.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -4.00%+2.00%-4.00%-0.50% · 1h-0.50% · 1h-0.50%1h0.50% · 2h0.50% · 2h0.50%2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h1.00% · 4h1.00% · 4h1.00%4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h1.00% · 6h1.00% · 6h1.00%6h-0.50% · 7h-0.50% · 7h-0.50%7h0.50% · 8h0.50% · 8h0.50%8h-0.50% · 9h-0.50% · 9h-0.50%9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h-0.50% · 11h-0.50% · 11h-0.50%11h0.50% · 12h0.50% · 12h0.50%12h0.50% · 13h0.50% · 13h0.50%13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h-0.50% · 16h-0.50% · 16h-0.50%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.50% · 18h0.50% · 18h0.50%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h-1.50% · 21h-1.50% · 21h-1.50%21h1.00% · 22h1.00% · 22h1.00%22h★ BEST-4.00% · 23h-4.00% · 23h-4.00%23h▼ WORST-1.50% · 24h-1.50% · 24h-1.50%24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+1.50%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH33% up · 33% down · 33% flat
8 up bars · 8 down · best 1.00% · worst -4.00% · typical |Δ| 0.625%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-4.05%)FINAL-4.05%MAX DD-5.94%RECOVERYONGOING · 18 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.01%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9595 · peak 1.0201 · range [0.9595, 1.0201]1.02010.9595break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0201UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -5.94% · significant0%-5.94%▼ TROUGH -5.94%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -5.94%bar 8-25 · 18 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.50%bar 2-4 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -5.94%)RECOVERYongoing · 18 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9595 (-4.05%) · max DD -5.94% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −4 (47% positive) · μ=7.52 · σ=29.01MIXED EDGELAST -53.16 (-2.09σ vs μ)53.1626.580.00-26.58-53.16μ = 7.5251.5251.5251.5251.5251.5251.5233.9533.9513.3413.340.000.00-15.87-15.8715.8715.870.000.0020.7220.720.000.0020.7220.7220.7220.720.000.000.000.00-33.95-33.950.000.00-34.01-34.01-53.16-53.16v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -53.158 · range [-53.16, 51.52] · μ 7.522 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=61.4938 · σ=39.8607 · range [29.5973, 171.7323] · R²=0.187▲ RISING +190.77%σ EXTREME 64.82%LAST 164.7908171.7323136.1986100.664865.131129.5973μ = 61.4938max 171.7323min 29.5973dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.19μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 164.79% · range [29.60%, 171.73%] · μ 61.49% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −14 (16% positive) · μ=-0.273 · σ=0.316MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.323 (-0.16σ vs μ)0.7420.3710.000-0.371-0.742μ = -0.273-0.470-0.470-0.697-0.697-0.742-0.742-0.553-0.553-0.614-0.614-0.500-0.500-0.661-0.661-0.178-0.178-0.000-0.000-0.069-0.069-0.000-0.0000.3430.3430.0490.0490.0000.0000.0000.0000.0260.026-0.429-0.429-0.373-0.373-0.323-0.323v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.323 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
72.4322
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.4893
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7803
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.0895
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9474
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.0351
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3006
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (11 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1953
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3650
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.7133
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4756
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.783 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.23e-4 · top T=2.00h (28.2%) · top-3 cover 52.7%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)4.2e-43.1e-42.1e-41.0e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.43e-4 · 9.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.43e-4 · 9.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.05e-4 · 13.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.05e-4 · 13.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.55e-4 · 10.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.55e-4 · 10.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.48e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.48e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.21e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.21e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.50e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.50e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.23e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.23e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.35e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.35e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.12e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.12e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.08e-4 · 7.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.08e-4 · 7.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.81e-5 · 6.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.81e-5 · 6.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.17e-4 · 28.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.17e-4 · 28.2% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=12.00h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 28.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.475e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (546 bars · effective 1753200 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.098pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.24ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0384 · n = 546✓ n = 546
μ per bar
-0.008pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.098pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.48pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.24pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0384
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
4.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.17pp · ES₉₅ 0.21pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.008pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 546
VaR 95%
0.17pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.21pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
52.9pp
peak 8.5¢ → trough 4.0¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
4.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
25.000
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+2400
$100 wins $2400
FractionalUK
24.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$2400.00
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 4.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.242 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.242 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
4.64 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.06 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
59464681949453788893713770409716564203201518501449356815440472604638998702427
NO token ID
42191118473695003474627083823318579467546130430706192731873758040134649947502
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-15 00:24:41 UTC
Snapshot age
1ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-15 00:24:41 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
03a68f2677ee1808441f6b9d0ab0f68b9d3e3bbff5860832b8bb2320f350dd28 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.030000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6666.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.468
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.797
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-2/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.21031360104.26bp0.52000010FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.691754220584.64bp0.98000030FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.936173302057.72bp0.99000031PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0199973334.46bp0.0100002PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0199973334.46bp0.0100002PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0199973334.46bp0.0100002PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 546 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
2058.72%
σ per bar = 0.015548
Mean return (annualised)
-242479.40%
μ per bar = -0.001383
Sharpe (rf=0)
-117.78
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
52.94%
peak 0.09 → trough 0.04 over 538 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-2/risk · same metrics, JSON