POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · CÔTE D'IVOIRE VS. ECUADOR - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador?

YES · live
1.1¢
NO · live
99.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-2 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
162.77%
max drawdown
74.70%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
38.42%
RMS drawdown
pain index
24.68%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
67.79%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.00
upside/downside
roll spread
58.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
342
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-2/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH17ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
1.1¢
NO · live
99.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0409 · σ=0.0088 · range [0.0125, 0.0490] · R²=0.106▼ FALLING -42.62%σ EXTREME 21.48%LAST 0.01750.04900.03990.03070.02160.0125μ = 0.0409max 0.0490min 0.0125dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.11μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 1.75¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 1.1%NO 99.0%NO99.0%98.95¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.084 / 1.00 bits (8%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
1.1%1.1¢95.24×▬ +0.00pp
NO
99.0%99.0¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=920 · μ=38.3 · σ=67.7 · CV=1.76BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=7073145218290μ = 3829050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 920bp moved · peak 290bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
17ms
▲YES mid
1.05¢ (1.05%)
▼NO mid
98.95¢ (98.95%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$47.0k
≋liquidity $
$6.1k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0409 · σ=0.0088 · range [0.0125, 0.0490] · R²=0.106▼ FALLING -42.62%σ EXTREME 21.48%LAST 0.01750.04900.03990.03070.02160.0125μ = 0.0409max 0.0490min 0.0125dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.11μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 1.75¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9591 · σ=0.0088 · range [0.9510, 0.9875] · R²=0.106▲ RISING +1.34%σ LOW 0.92%LAST 0.98250.98750.97840.96920.96010.9510μ = 0.9591max 0.9875min 0.9510dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.11μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 98.25¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0012 · σ=0.0073 · skew=-1.47 (left-skewed) · kurt=4.71 (leptokurtic (fat tails))17139401-2.69ppbin -2.69pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin -2.69pp · n=1 · 5.9% peak-2.25pp-1.83pp1-1.40ppbin -1.40pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin -1.40pp · n=1 · 5.9% peak-0.97pp1-0.54ppbin -0.54pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin -0.54pp · n=1 · 5.9% peak17-0.11ppbin -0.11pp · n=17 · 100.0% peakbin -0.11pp · n=17 · 100.0% peak10.32ppbin 0.32pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin 0.32pp · n=1 · 5.9% peak10.75ppbin 0.75pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin 0.75pp · n=1 · 5.9% peak21.18ppbin 1.18pp · n=2 · 11.8% peakbin 1.18pp · n=2 · 11.8% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-1.86 · kurt=6.10 · near 9 / mid 14 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.86 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-1.69σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=3.57)
μ MEAN4.09¢95% CI: [3.75¢, 4.43¢]
σ STD DEV0.88ppσ² = 0.772 · CV = 21.48%
med MEDIAN4.40¢Q₁ 4.30¢ · Q₃ 4.45¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 3.65pp · IQR 0.15pp (1.349σ→1.19pp)
min 1.25¢Q₁ 4.30¢med 4.40¢Q₃ 4.45¢max 4.90¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-2.120left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂3.572leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.35
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 7.90
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.16
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.36 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.358within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.196lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.717strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.653fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.717
H = 0.717STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.358k=2+0.196k=3-0.061k=4+0.016k=5+0.0690+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]MARGINAL @ 10% (|t|=1.65)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.36 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.79very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCEMARGINAL @ 10% (|t|=1.65)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322461
SLUGfifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-2
CATEGORYCôte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (99¢)
PRIMARY · YES1.05¢implied prob 1.05% · decimal odds 95.24×
COUNTER · NO98.95¢implied prob 98.95% · decimal odds 1.01×
1.05¢
98.95¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME47.01k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY6.05k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (99¢)|primary − counter| = 0.979 · entropy 0.084 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 1.1%NO 99.0%YES p̂1.1%H = 0.084 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES95.24×(1¢)NO1.01×(99¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.084 bits (8% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.40% · worst -2.90% · typical |Δ| 0.38%BEARISH SESSION -1.30%BEST+1.40%1hWORST-2.90%23hTYPICAL |Δ|0.38%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.30%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.19% · Σ +1.35%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.10%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.41% · Σ -3.25%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.30%+1.85%-1.80%1.40% · 1h1.40% · 1h1.40%1h★ BEST-1.25% · 2h-1.25% · 2h-1.25%2h1.10% · 3h1.10% · 3h1.10%3h0.05% · 4h0.05% · 4h0.05%4h0.55% · 5h0.55% · 5h0.55%5h-0.05% · 6h-0.05% · 6h-0.05%6h-0.45% · 7h-0.45% · 7h-0.45%7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.10% · 9h0.10% · 9h0.10%9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h-0.05% · 12h-0.05% · 12h-0.05%12h-0.05% · 13h-0.05% · 13h-0.05%13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.10% · 15h0.10% · 15h0.10%15h-0.05% · 16h-0.05% · 16h-0.05%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h-0.15% · 18h-0.15% · 18h-0.15%18h0.05% · 19h0.05% · 19h0.05%19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h-0.30% · 21h-0.30% · 21h-0.30%21h0.10% · 22h0.10% · 22h0.10%22h-2.90% · 23h-2.90% · 23h-2.90%23h▼ WORST0.50% · 24h0.50% · 24h0.50%24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+1.35%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 2BREADTH38% up · 38% down · 25% flat
9 up bars · 9 down · best 1.40% · worst -2.90% · typical |Δ| 0.383%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.36%)FINAL-1.36%MAX DD-3.63%RECOVERYONGOING · 19 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.84%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9864 · peak 1.0184 · range [0.9815, 1.0184]1.01840.9815break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0184UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.63% · moderate0%-3.63%▼ TROUGH -3.63%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -3.63%bar 7-25 · 19 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.25%bar 3-5 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.63%)RECOVERYongoing · 19 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9864 (-1.36%) · max DD -3.63% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +4 / −12 (21% positive) · μ=-11.48 · σ=23.45UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -32.10 (-0.88σ vs μ)54.2427.120.00-27.12-54.24μ = -11.4829.6029.60-0.96-0.9634.4134.419.749.747.307.30-32.15-32.15-32.15-32.150.000.000.000.000.000.00-13.34-13.34-13.34-13.34-28.48-28.48-9.06-9.06-9.06-9.06-54.24-54.24-31.55-31.55-42.71-42.71-32.10-32.10v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -32.098 · range [-54.24, 34.41] · μ -11.479 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=32.2818 · σ=37.2454 · range [5.1264, 115.9878] · R²=0.000▲ RISING +30.63%σ EXTREME 115.38%LAST 115.9878115.987888.272560.557132.84185.1264μ = 32.2818max 115.9878min 5.1264dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 115.99% · range [5.13%, 115.99%] · μ 32.28% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.161 · σ=0.254CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.426 (-1.04σ vs μ)0.7320.3660.000-0.366-0.732μ = -0.161-0.732-0.732-0.391-0.3910.0120.0120.0380.0380.0090.009-0.028-0.0280.0120.0120.1670.1670.1670.1670.1670.167-0.150-0.150-0.150-0.150-0.130-0.130-0.361-0.361-0.373-0.373-0.246-0.246-0.545-0.545-0.101-0.101-0.426-0.426v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.426 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
77.9520
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.8339
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4374
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.7602
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4094
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.4577
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1449
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2898
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1999
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.5980
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1101
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.514 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.83e-5 · top T=2.67h (22.0%) · top-3 cover 52.8%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.5e-41.2e-47.7e-53.9e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.67e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.67e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.15e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.15e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.04e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.04e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.51e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.51e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.10e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.10e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.37e-5 · 10.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.37e-5 · 10.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.09e-5 · 10.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.09e-5 · 10.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.41e-5 · 13.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.41e-5 · 13.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.54e-4 · 22.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.54e-4 · 22.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.21e-4 · 17.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.21e-4 · 17.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.97e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.97e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.04e-6 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.04e-6 · 0.1% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.67h#2T=2.40h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 22.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.997e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (342 bars · effective 1753103 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.123pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.30ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0104 · n = 342✓ n = 342
μ per bar
-0.009pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.123pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.60pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.30pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0104
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
1.1¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.21pp · ES₉₅ 0.26pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.009pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.35pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 342
VaR 95%
0.21pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.26pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
74.7pp
peak 4.2¢ → trough 1.1¢
Median step
0.35pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
1.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
95.238
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+9424
$100 wins $9424
FractionalUK
94.24 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$9423.81
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 1.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.084 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.084 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
6.57 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.02 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
87116072849673273772363657424335148955839608424579231840992712096485999935886
NO token ID
62067177632121452216773749708911707454841076332397418083583049739152313887855
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-15 00:24:22 UTC
Snapshot age
17ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-15 00:24:22 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
40ffe4eeeb7ec0a21f76e389dc8dcd52bf84c2462c459c114c6fec13bca43f68 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
—
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
—
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-1.000
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-1.000
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-2/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K————ERR
BUY$10.00K————ERR
BUY$100.00K————ERR
SELL$1.00K————ERR
SELL$10.00K————ERR
SELL$100.00K————ERR

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 342 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
6977.99%
σ per bar = 0.052702
Mean return (annualised)
-706545.68%
μ per bar = -0.004030
Sharpe (rf=0)
-101.25
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
74.70%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.01 over 331 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-2/risk · same metrics, JSON