POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · CÔTE D'IVOIRE VS. ECUADOR - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador?

YES · live
13.5¢
NO · live
86.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-1 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
92.69%
max drawdown
15.62%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
8.92%
RMS drawdown
pain index
7.52%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
15.62%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.00
upside/downside
roll spread
7.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
458
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-1/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH13ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
13.5¢
NO · live
86.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.1602 · σ=0.0076 · range [0.1400, 0.1700] · R²=0.126▼ FALLING -3.23%σ NORMAL 4.72%LAST 0.15000.17000.16250.15500.14750.1400μ = 0.1602max 0.1700min 0.1400dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.13μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 15.00¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 13.5%NO 86.5%NO86.5%86.50¢ · odds 1/1.16
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.571 / 1.00 bits (57%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
13.5%13.5¢7.41×▬ +0.00pp
NO
86.5%86.5¢1.16×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=850 · μ=35.4 · σ=45.4 · CV=1.28BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=2003875113150μ = 3515050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 850bp moved · peak 150bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
13ms
▲YES mid
13.50¢ (13.50%)
▼NO mid
86.50¢ (86.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$65.8k
≋liquidity $
$69.3k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1602 · σ=0.0076 · range [0.1400, 0.1700] · R²=0.126▼ FALLING -3.23%σ NORMAL 4.72%LAST 0.15000.17000.16250.15500.14750.1400μ = 0.1602max 0.1700min 0.1400dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.13μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 15.00¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8398 · σ=0.0076 · range [0.8300, 0.8600] · R²=0.126▲ RISING +0.59%σ LOW 0.90%LAST 0.85000.86000.85250.84500.83750.8300μ = 0.8398max 0.8600min 0.8300dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.13μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 85.00¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0007 · σ=0.0052 · skew=-0.72 (left-skewed) · kurt=1.01 (leptokurtic (fat tails))13107301-1.38ppbin -1.38pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin -1.38pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak-1.13pp1-0.88ppbin -0.88pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin -0.88pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak-0.63pp4-0.38ppbin -0.38pp · n=4 · 30.8% peakbin -0.38pp · n=4 · 30.8% peak-0.13pp130.13ppbin 0.13pp · n=13 · 100.0% peakbin 0.13pp · n=13 · 100.0% peak0.38pp20.63ppbin 0.63pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakbin 0.63pp · n=2 · 15.4% peak30.88ppbin 0.88pp · n=3 · 23.1% peakbin 0.88pp · n=3 · 23.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.26 · kurt=0.74 · near 13 / mid 11 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.96 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-1.03)
μ MEAN16.02¢95% CI: [15.72¢, 16.32¢]
σ STD DEV0.76ppσ² = 0.573 · CV = 4.72%
med MEDIAN16.50¢Q₁ 15.50¢ · Q₃ 16.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 3.00pp · IQR 1.00pp (1.349σ→1.02pp)
min 14.00¢Q₁ 15.50¢med 16.50¢Q₃ 16.50¢max 17.00¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.034left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.271mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.63
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.02
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.96
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.23 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.230within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.264lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.743strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.824fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.743
H = 0.743STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.230k=2-0.264k=3+0.387k=4-0.164k=5-0.0020+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]MARGINAL @ 10% (|t|=1.82)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.23 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.72very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCEMARGINAL @ 10% (|t|=1.82)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322451
SLUGfifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-1
CATEGORYCôte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (87¢)
PRIMARY · YES13.50¢implied prob 13.50% · decimal odds 7.41×
COUNTER · NO86.50¢implied prob 86.50% · decimal odds 1.16×
13.50¢
86.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME65.76k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY69.34k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (87¢)|primary − counter| = 0.730 · entropy 0.571 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 13.5%NO 86.5%YES p̂13.5%H = 0.571 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES7.41×(14¢)NO1.16×(87¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.571 bits (57% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.00% · worst -1.50% · typical |Δ| 0.35%BEARISH SESSION -0.50%BEST+1.00%2hWORST-1.50%22hTYPICAL |Δ|0.35%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.14% · Σ +1.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.06% · Σ +0.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.38% · Σ -3.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.50%+1.50%-1.50%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h1.00% · 2h1.00% · 2h1.00%2h★ BEST-0.50% · 3h-0.50% · 3h-0.50%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.50% · 7h0.50% · 7h0.50%7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.50% · 15h0.50% · 15h0.50%15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h-0.50% · 17h-0.50% · 17h-0.50%17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h-1.00% · 19h-1.00% · 19h-1.00%19h-0.50% · 20h-0.50% · 20h-0.50%20h1.00% · 21h1.00% · 21h1.00%21h-1.50% · 22h-1.50% · 22h-1.50%22h▼ WORST-0.50% · 23h-0.50% · 23h-0.50%23h1.00% · 24h1.00% · 24h1.00%24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+1.00%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 2BREADTH21% up · 25% down · 54% flat
5 up bars · 6 down · best 1.00% · worst -1.50% · typical |Δ| 0.354%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-0.54%)FINAL-0.54%MAX DD-2.98%RECOVERYONGOING · 8 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.50%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9946 · peak 1.0150 · range [0.9848, 1.0150]1.01500.9848break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0150UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.98% · moderate0%-2.98%▼ TROUGH -2.98%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.98%bar 18-25 · 8 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.50%bar 4-15 · 12 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.98%)RECOVERYongoing · 8 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 0.9946 (-0.54%) · max DD -2.98% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −6 (42% positive) · μ=3.40 · σ=31.39MIXED EDGELAST -22.57 (-0.83σ vs μ)45.2822.640.00-22.64-45.28μ = 3.4015.8715.8730.2130.210.000.0038.2138.2138.2138.2138.2138.2138.2138.210.000.000.000.0038.2138.2138.2138.210.000.000.000.00-30.21-30.21-44.62-44.62-22.83-22.83-45.28-45.28-45.28-45.28-22.57-22.57v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -22.568 · range [-45.28, 38.21] · μ 3.397 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=37.7561 · σ=27.3152 · range [0.0000, 97.0412] · R²=0.386▲ RISING +110.91%σ EXTREME 72.35%LAST 97.041297.041272.780948.520624.26030.0000μ = 37.7561max 97.0412min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.39μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 97.04% · range [0.00%, 97.04%] · μ 37.76% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −13 (5% positive) · μ=-0.169 · σ=0.183MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.314 (-0.79σ vs μ)0.5070.2540.000-0.254-0.507μ = -0.169-0.454-0.454-0.333-0.3330.0000.000-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.033-0.0330.0000.0000.0000.000-0.033-0.033-0.233-0.2330.0000.0000.0000.000-0.021-0.0210.0450.045-0.155-0.155-0.507-0.507-0.474-0.474-0.314-0.314v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.314 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.7802
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4106
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
8.7174
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1197
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.7552
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4118
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.3499
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7264
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (7 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3080
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1682
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.8489
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0645
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.437 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.23e-5 · top T=2.67h (28.0%) · top-3 cover 53.6%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.1e-48.1e-55.4e-52.7e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.34e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.34e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.28e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.28e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.43e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.43e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.98e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.98e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.36e-5 · 11.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.36e-5 · 11.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.35e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.35e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.23e-5 · 8.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.23e-5 · 8.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.10e-5 · 13.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.10e-5 · 13.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.09e-4 · 28.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.09e-4 · 28.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.80e-5 · 12.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.80e-5 · 12.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.14e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.14e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.04e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.04e-6 · 0.3% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.67h#2T=3.00h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 28.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.875e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (458 bars · effective 1753103 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.070pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.17ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1168 · n = 458✓ n = 458
μ per bar
-0.005pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.070pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.34pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.17pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.1168
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
13.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.12pp · ES₉₅ 0.15pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.005pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 458
VaR 95%
0.12pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.15pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
15.6pp
peak 16.0¢ → trough 13.5¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
13.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
7.407
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+641
$100 wins $641
FractionalUK
6.41 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$640.74
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 13.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.571 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.571 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
2.89 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.21 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
69811533105946073037136411730375844202282935050212185563483775993387484269041
NO token ID
94515817676417743859440361822019027124373486072767845954197536768347678844679
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 23:11:34 UTC
Snapshot age
13ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 23:11:34 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
942592aef54f0afdfcff259349bf15f51b7d2ee021e2bdbad4a1ce3cdde8d2cd · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.150000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1333.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.435
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.216
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-1/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1857182381.22bp0.2100005FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.65992333994.89bp0.98000013FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.77843941895.93bp0.99000014PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1292011386.57bp0.1100004FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1230751795.01bp0.0100006PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.1230751795.01bp0.0100006PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 458 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
631.04%
σ per bar = 0.004766
Mean return (annualised)
-65175.15%
μ per bar = -0.000372
Sharpe (rf=0)
-103.28
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
15.62%
peak 0.16 → trough 0.14 over 409 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-1/risk · same metrics, JSON