TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “te · ivoire · ecuador” (41 markets)

Top terms: teivoireecuadorscoreexactmarkets

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peert-statnVerdict
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?-4.754169▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador?-4.630169▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?-4.616169▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score-4.554169▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?-4.464169▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half-3.999127▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners-3.16779no rejection · independent
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners-3.065100no rejection · independent

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-1 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
248.50%
max drawdown
15.62%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
8.04%
RMS drawdown
pain index
6.38%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
15.62%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
2.14
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
2.14
upside/downside
roll spread
6.9 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
739
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-1/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →