POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · CÔTE D'IVOIRE VS. ECUADOR - MORE MARKETS
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5
31.5¢
68.5¢
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-team-total-away-1pt5 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
103.67%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
4.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
488
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-team-total-away-1pt5/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
31.5¢
NO · live
68.5¢
25 ticks · last 32.50¢
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.899 / 1.00 bits (90%) · high uncertainty
YES31.5%31.5¢3.17×▬ +0.00pp
NO68.5%68.5¢1.46×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Σ 900bp moved · peak 300bp · n=24 ticks
3ms
31.50¢ (31.50%)
68.50¢ (68.50%)
100.00%
0.000pp
$40.6k
$46.4k
25 ticks (live)
§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 32.50¢
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 67.50¢
§2 · Distribution of Δp
n=24
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.
§3 · Sample moments
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.87)
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOT
SKEWNESS · G₁0.874right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.720mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.
§5 · Time-series structure
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]
H = 1.013STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.
§6 · Microstructure
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
TWO-SIDED PRICING
31.50¢
68.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TEST
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITY
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.
§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis
FAIR MARKET · no edge
Probability scale (YES)
Implied decimal odds
YES3.17×(32¢)NO1.46×(69¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.899 bits (90% of max) · high uncertainty
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.
§9 · Hourly return heatmap
5 up bars · 3 down · best 2.00% · worst -3.00% · typical |Δ| 0.375%
§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown
final equity 1.0092 (0.92%) · max DD -3.00% · time-under-water 20/25 bars
§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)
latest 59.511 · range [-38.21, 60.42] · μ -6.258 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
latest 85.87% · range [0.00%, 124.40%] · μ 50.92% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
latest 0.285 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk
§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
Jarque-Bera
REJECT H₀***H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)
STATISTIC
82.9585
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
Ljung-Box(h=5)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5
STATISTIC
1.5919
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9021
Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)
STATISTIC
-1.3305
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6134
Wald-Wolfowitz runs
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random
STATISTIC
-0.6179
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5366
KPSS (μ stationarity)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: p IS level-stationary
STATISTIC
0.1808
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3903
Variance ratio q=3
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1
STATISTIC
0.8487
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3961
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).
§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)
dominant period ≈ 8.00h (freq 0.125) · concentrates 23.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 8.000e-4
▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (488 bars · effective 1753103 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.
§14 · Honest position analytics
A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →
§15 · Horizon returns
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.078pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.19ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2158 · n = 488✓ n = 488
μ per bar
+0.006pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.078pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.38pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.19pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.2158
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
31.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.
§16 · Tail risk
VaR₉₅ 0.12pp · ES₉₅ 0.16pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.006pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 488
VaR 95%
0.12pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.16pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
0.0pp
peak 28.5¢ → trough 28.5¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.
§17 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
31.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
3.175
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+217
$100 wins $217
FractionalUK
2.17 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$217.46
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.
§18 · Binary entropy
Market entropyH(p)
0.899 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.899 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.67 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.55 bit
self-information
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.
§19 · Model-dependent surfaces
External model required
The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.
The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.
To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.
§∞ · Provenance & attestation
- Upstream (snapshot)
- gamma-api.polymarket.com
- Upstream (history)
- clob.polymarket.com
- YES token ID
17946743976116255550063943905858531100450735862354777734483463463402888751531- NO token ID
102844942939499068390740541979282109608367264066351477701783660042105072726610- Snapshot fetched
- 2026-06-14 23:06:46 UTC
- Snapshot age
- 3ms
- History points
- 25 CLOB mids
- Page rendered
- 2026-06-14 23:06:46 UTC
- Storage policy
- no persistence — fetched on every request
- SHA-256 attestation
2c82085188b21bcfc7c45a853a456400813203c8a928f4e53d0e1e81f0ba32fe· deterministic hash of source snapshot- Open data licence
- CC0 / public domain
§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more
HL PREDGermany100.0¢HL PREDDraw99.9¢HL PREDSpain91.2¢POLYMARKETWill Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?86¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$65,317.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,718.75HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$63.35
Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador - More Markets
Market depth
▸ live order book · Polymarket YESDepth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.325000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
923.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.255
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.258
ask-heavy top-of-book
Slippage scenarios
▸ live book walk · Polymarket YESSimulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-team-total-away-1pt5/slippage?size=10000&side=buy
| Side | Notional | Avg fill | Slippage | Worst fill | Levels | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | $1.00K | 0.513995 | 5815.23bp | 0.780000 | 5 | FILLED |
| BUY | $10.00K | 0.746007 | 12954.08bp | 0.990000 | 13 | PARTIAL |
| BUY | $100.00K | 0.746007 | 12954.08bp | 0.990000 | 13 | PARTIAL |
| SELL | $1.00K | 0.145622 | 5519.31bp | 0.090000 | 8 | FILLED |
| SELL | $10.00K | 0.107561 | 6690.43bp | 0.010000 | 14 | PARTIAL |
| SELL | $100.00K | 0.107561 | 6690.43bp | 0.010000 | 14 | PARTIAL |
Risk metrics
▸ sovereign store · 488 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75MRealized vol (annualised)
344.50%
σ per bar = 0.002602
Mean return (annualised)
36028.04%
μ per bar = 0.000206
Sharpe (rf=0)
104.58
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
0.00%
peak 0.28 → trough 0.28 over 0 bars
/api/asset/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-team-total-away-1pt5/risk · same metrics, JSON