POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · CÔTE D'IVOIRE VS. ECUADOR - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 3 Ecuador?

YES · live
0.2¢
NO · live
99.8¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-3 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
238.08%
max drawdown
93.55%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
46.92%
RMS drawdown
pain index
32.59%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.14%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
93.55%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.67
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.67
upside/downside
roll spread
50.5 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
312
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-3/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.2¢
NO · live
99.8¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0142 · σ=0.0053 · range [0.0020, 0.0280] · R²=0.205▼ FALLING -37.14%σ EXTREME 37.53%LAST 0.01100.02800.02150.01500.00850.0020μ = 0.0142max 0.0280min 0.0020dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.20μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 1.10¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.2%NO 99.8%NO99.8%99.80¢ · odds 1/1.00
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.021 / 1.00 bits (2%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.2%0.2¢500.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
99.8%99.8¢1.00×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=785 · μ=32.7 · σ=43.6 · CV=1.33BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1503673109145μ = 3314550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 785bp moved · peak 145bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4ms
▲YES mid
0.20¢ (0.20%)
▼NO mid
99.80¢ (99.80%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$36.7k
≋liquidity $
$14.0k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0142 · σ=0.0053 · range [0.0020, 0.0280] · R²=0.205▼ FALLING -37.14%σ EXTREME 37.53%LAST 0.01100.02800.02150.01500.00850.0020μ = 0.0142max 0.0280min 0.0020dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.20μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 1.10¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9858 · σ=0.0053 · range [0.9720, 0.9980] · R²=0.205▲ RISING +0.66%σ LOW 0.54%LAST 0.98900.99800.99150.98500.97850.9720μ = 0.9858max 0.9980min 0.9720dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.20μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 98.90¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0001 · σ=0.0053 · skew=-0.17 (symmetric) · kurt=1.41 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1296301-1.31ppbin -1.31pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin -1.31pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak1-1.01ppbin -1.01pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin -1.01pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak1-0.73ppbin -0.73pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin -0.73pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak1-0.43ppbin -0.43pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin -0.43pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak5-0.14ppbin -0.14pp · n=5 · 41.7% peakbin -0.14pp · n=5 · 41.7% peak120.15ppbin 0.15pp · n=12 · 100.0% peakbin 0.15pp · n=12 · 100.0% peak10.44ppbin 0.44pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin 0.44pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak0.73pp11.02ppbin 1.02pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin 1.02pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak11.31ppbin 1.31pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin 1.31pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.04 · kurt=2.25 · near 11 / mid 13 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.96 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.89)
μ MEAN1.42¢95% CI: [1.21¢, 1.62¢]
σ STD DEV0.53ppσ² = 0.282 · CV = 37.53%
med MEDIAN1.35¢Q₁ 1.15¢ · Q₃ 1.55¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 2.60pp · IQR 0.40pp (1.349σ→0.72pp)
min 0.20¢Q₁ 1.15¢med 1.35¢Q₃ 1.55¢max 2.80¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.888right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.878leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.12
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.79
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.89
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.141within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.205lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.768strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.435significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.768
H = 0.768STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.141k=2-0.205k=3-0.206k=4-0.065k=5+0.0860+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.44)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.68very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.44)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322463
SLUGfifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-3
CATEGORYCôte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (100¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.20¢implied prob 0.20% · decimal odds 500.00×
COUNTER · NO99.80¢implied prob 99.80% · decimal odds 1.00×
0.20¢
99.80¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME36.66k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY13.97k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (100¢)|primary − counter| = 0.996 · entropy 0.021 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.2%NO 99.8%YES p̂0.2%H = 0.021 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES500.00×(0¢)NO1.00×(100¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.021 bits (2% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.45% · worst -1.45% · typical |Δ| 0.33%BEARISH SESSION -0.65%BEST+1.45%8hWORST-1.45%23hTYPICAL |Δ|0.33%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.65%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.06% · Σ -0.40%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.10%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.16% · Σ -1.25%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.65%+1.05%-1.55%-0.20% · 1h-0.20% · 1h-0.20%1h0.05% · 2h0.05% · 2h0.05%2h-0.10% · 3h-0.10% · 3h-0.10%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h-0.25% · 6h-0.25% · 6h-0.25%6h0.10% · 7h0.10% · 7h0.10%7h1.45% · 8h1.45% · 8h1.45%8h★ BEST0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h-0.90% · 10h-0.90% · 10h-0.90%10h-0.75% · 11h-0.75% · 11h-0.75%11h-0.05% · 12h-0.05% · 12h-0.05%12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.35% · 15h0.35% · 15h0.35%15h-0.30% · 16h-0.30% · 16h-0.30%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h-0.25% · 18h-0.25% · 18h-0.25%18h0.25% · 19h0.25% · 19h0.25%19h0.15% · 20h0.15% · 20h0.15%20h0.10% · 21h0.10% · 21h0.10%21h0.25% · 22h0.25% · 22h0.25%22h-1.45% · 23h-1.45% · 23h-1.45%23h▼ WORST0.90% · 24h0.90% · 24h0.90%24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.10%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH38% up · 38% down · 25% flat
9 up bars · 9 down · best 1.45% · worst -1.45% · typical |Δ| 0.327%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-0.68%)FINAL-0.68%MAX DD-2.59%RECOVERYONGOING · 15 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.04%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9932 · peak 1.0104 · range [0.9843, 1.0104]1.01040.9843break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0104UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.59% · moderate0%-2.59%▼ TROUGH -2.59%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.59%bar 11-25 · 15 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.50%bar 2-8 · 7 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.59%)RECOVERYongoing · 15 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9932 (-0.68%) · max DD -2.59% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −11 (37% positive) · μ=-7.85 · σ=28.95MIXED EDGELAST 3.99 (+0.41σ vs μ)64.4032.200.00-32.20-64.40μ = -7.85-64.40-64.40-24.93-24.9330.0130.0132.9532.958.118.11-6.50-6.50-2.80-2.80-4.68-4.68-62.74-62.74-43.10-43.10-31.64-31.640.000.00-13.47-13.473.003.0011.7411.74-3.51-3.5141.3041.30-22.48-22.483.993.99v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 3.986 · range [-64.40, 41.30] · μ -7.850 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=43.6470 · σ=24.9035 · range [11.3349, 78.6095] · R²=0.013▲ RISING +546.32%σ EXTREME 57.06%LAST 73.259578.609561.790844.972228.153511.3349μ = 43.6470max 78.6095min 11.3349dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 73.26% · range [11.33%, 78.61%] · μ 43.65% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.117 · σ=0.294CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.509 (-1.33σ vs μ)0.5460.2730.000-0.273-0.546μ = -0.117-0.356-0.356-0.546-0.5460.0570.057-0.110-0.1100.0100.0100.2350.2350.2450.2450.1850.1850.1690.1690.4040.404-0.067-0.067-0.488-0.488-0.389-0.389-0.492-0.492-0.343-0.343-0.036-0.036-0.072-0.072-0.117-0.117-0.509-0.509v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.509 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
9.5802
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0083
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.3718
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6454
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.7837
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0632
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.0000
p-VALUE (log scale)
1.0000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3749
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0880
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.0547
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2915
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.679 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.02e-5 · top T=6.00h (23.3%) · top-3 cover 51.6%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)8.4e-56.3e-54.2e-52.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.48e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.48e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.64e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.64e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.32e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.32e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.44e-5 · 23.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.44e-5 · 23.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.84e-6 · 1.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.84e-6 · 1.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.34e-5 · 14.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.34e-5 · 14.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.43e-5 · 9.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.43e-5 · 9.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.07e-6 · 2.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.07e-6 · 2.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.06e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.06e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.91e-5 · 13.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.91e-5 · 13.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.39e-5 · 9.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.39e-5 · 9.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.15e-5 · 8.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.15e-5 · 8.7% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=6.00h#2T=4.00h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 6.00h (freq 0.167) · concentrates 23.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.623e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (312 bars · effective 1753103 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.180pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.44ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0020 · n = 312✓ n = 312
μ per bar
-0.004pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.180pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.88pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.44pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0020
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.2¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.30pp · ES₉₅ 0.38pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.004pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.45pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 312
VaR 95%
0.30pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.38pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
93.5pp
peak 3.1¢ → trough 0.2¢
Median step
0.45pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.2%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
500.000
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+49900
$100 wins $49900
FractionalUK
499.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$49900.00
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.2%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.021 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.021 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
8.97 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.00 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
47738676335042727866947259648101609307703614313066221235066936646561510344701
NO token ID
94705605274337004332157581693659080100768399068971593978303311775994411076261
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-15 00:24:32 UTC
Snapshot age
4ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-15 00:24:32 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
216ffe950a5eb055feff03287be929075cadac07cce5fac93f45552aa7ce89db · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
—
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
—
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-1.000
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-1.000
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-3/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K————ERR
BUY$10.00K————ERR
BUY$100.00K————ERR
SELL$1.00K————ERR
SELL$10.00K————ERR
SELL$100.00K————ERR

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 312 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
19523.23%
σ per bar = 0.147451
Mean return (annualised)
-1135797.99%
μ per bar = -0.006479
Sharpe (rf=0)
-58.18
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
93.55%
peak 0.03 → trough 0.00 over 183 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-2-3/risk · same metrics, JSON