TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “te · ivoire · ecuador” (32 markets)
Top terms: teivoireecuadorscoreexactmarkets
- Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score44.5¢ YES · $392.2k 24h
- Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?28.5¢ YES · $2.33M 24h
- Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners52.5¢ YES · $232.9k 24h
- Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners40.5¢ YES · $80.1k 24h
- Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?33.5¢ YES · $534.3k 24h
- Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?37.5¢ YES · $3.52M 24h
- Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador?14.5¢ YES · $27.5k 24h
- Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador?13.5¢ YES · $65.8k 24h
- Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador?8.5¢ YES · $85.0k 24h
- Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador?11.5¢ YES · $32.7k 24h
- Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador?15.5¢ YES · $85.8k 24h
- Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador?8.5¢ YES · $54.9k 24h
- Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 3 Ecuador?3.6¢ YES · $73.7k 24h
- Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador?5.5¢ YES · $126.1k 24h
- Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador?6.5¢ YES · $56.1k 24h
- Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador?4.2¢ YES · $29.3k 24h
- Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 3 Ecuador?1.5¢ YES · $26.4k 24h
- Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 0 Ecuador?1.7¢ YES · $34.5k 24h
- Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 3 Ecuador?0.7¢ YES · $46.3k 24h
- Ecuador leading at halftime?28.5¢ YES · $72.9k 24h
- Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime?21.5¢ YES · $38.3k 24h
- ★ Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)16.5¢ YES · $178.9k 24h
- Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5)9.5¢ YES · $42.5k 24h
- Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5)1.8¢ YES · $40.8k 24h
- Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.568.0¢ YES · $42.3k 24h
- Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.531.0¢ YES · $38.5k 24h
- Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.561.5¢ YES · $156.8k 24h
- Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.586.5¢ YES · $100.2k 24h
- Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.561.5¢ YES · $362.8k 24h
- Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.534.5¢ YES · $469.9k 24h
- Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.515.5¢ YES · $60.3k 24h
- Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.55.5¢ YES · $25.4k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3.027 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.817 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.740 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.714 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.259 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.924 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.516 | 98 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.319 | 77 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-spread-away-1pt5 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
90.74%
max drawdown
5.71%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.71%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.09%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.09%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
2.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
2.00
upside/downside
roll spread
2.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
640
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-spread-away-1pt5/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →