TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “airspace · closes · iran” (10 markets)
Top terms: airspaceclosesirancloseisraeljune
- Israel closes its airspace by June 14?0.1¢ YES · $677.0k 24h
- Israel closes its airspace by June 15?0.9¢ YES · $525.9k 24h
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?6.5¢ YES · $265.7k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?24.5¢ YES · $37.3k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?39.0¢ YES · $48.9k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?13.5¢ YES · $50.8k 24h
- ★ Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?14.5¢ YES · $37.5k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?0.9¢ YES · $1.02M 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?1.6¢ YES · $448.8k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?9.5¢ YES · $165.7k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -8.206 | 126 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -7.110 | 126 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -7.016 | 126 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -6.546 | 126 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -5.331 | 126 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -5.211 | 126 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.928 | 126 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.598 | 126 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-july-31-20260609184136056 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
629.95%
max drawdown
68.97%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
48.02%
RMS drawdown
pain index
42.12%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
68.97%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.25
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.25
upside/downside
roll spread
22.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
949
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-july-31-20260609184136056/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →