POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · IRAN CLOSES ITS AIRSPACE BY...?

Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

YES · live
36.5¢
NO · live
63.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-june-30-20260609184136054 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
433.96%
max drawdown
13.11%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
3.66%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.66%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
11.04%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
5.70
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
5.70
upside/downside
roll spread
16.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1629
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-june-30-20260609184136054/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH18ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
36.5¢
NO · live
63.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.1432 · σ=0.0766 · range [0.0850, 0.4350] · R²=0.448▲ RISING +222.22%σ EXTREME 53.46%LAST 0.43500.43500.34750.26000.17250.0850μ = 0.1432max 0.4350min 0.0850dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.45μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 43.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 36.5%NO 63.5%NO63.5%63.50¢ · odds 1/1.57
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.947 / 1.00 bits (95%) · high uncertainty
YES
36.5%36.5¢2.74×▬ +0.00pp
NO
63.5%63.5¢1.57×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=4,400 · μ=183.3 · σ=381.5 · CV=2.08BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=2104509001,3501,800μ = 1831,80050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 4400bp moved · peak 1800bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
18ms
▲YES mid
36.50¢ (36.50%)
▼NO mid
63.50¢ (63.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$32.6k
≋liquidity $
$10.2k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1432 · σ=0.0766 · range [0.0850, 0.4350] · R²=0.448▲ RISING +222.22%σ EXTREME 53.46%LAST 0.43500.43500.34750.26000.17250.0850μ = 0.1432max 0.4350min 0.0850dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.45μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 43.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8568 · σ=0.0766 · range [0.5650, 0.9150] · R²=0.448▼ FALLING -34.68%σ HIGH 8.93%LAST 0.56500.91500.82750.74000.65250.5650μ = 0.8568max 0.9150min 0.5650dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.45μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 56.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0126 · σ=0.0373 · skew=3.16 (right-skewed) · kurt=10.44 (leptokurtic (fat tails))13107306-1.47ppbin -1.47pp · n=6 · 46.2% peakbin -1.47pp · n=6 · 46.2% peak130.58ppbin 0.58pp · n=13 · 100.0% peakbin 0.58pp · n=13 · 100.0% peak32.62ppbin 2.62pp · n=3 · 23.1% peakbin 2.62pp · n=3 · 23.1% peak4.67pp16.72ppbin 6.72pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin 6.72pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak8.77pp10.82pp12.87pp14.92pp116.97ppbin 16.97pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin 16.97pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=3.22 · kurt=10.54 · near 7 / mid 15 / far 2 · OLS slope=0.77 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSMILDLY HEAVY UPPERTHIN LOWER TAIL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+2.18σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=5.92)
μ MEAN14.32¢95% CI: [11.32¢, 17.32¢]
σ STD DEV7.66ppσ² = 58.602 · CV = 53.46%
med MEDIAN11.50¢Q₁ 10.50¢ · Q₃ 13.00¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 35.00pp · IQR 2.50pp (1.349σ→10.33pp)
min 8.50¢Q₁ 10.50¢med 11.50¢Q₃ 13.00¢max 43.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁2.438right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂5.924leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.37
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 4.13
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.57
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.072within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.065lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.940strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+4.320significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.940
H = 0.940STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.072k=2+0.065k=3+0.286k=4+0.098k=5-0.0450+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.32)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.95very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.32)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2481462
SLUGwill-iran-close-…609184136054
CATEGORYIran closes its airspace by...?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (64¢)
PRIMARY · YES36.50¢implied prob 36.50% · decimal odds 2.74×
COUNTER · NO63.50¢implied prob 63.50% · decimal odds 1.57×
36.50¢
63.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME32.61k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY10.23k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (64¢)|primary − counter| = 0.270 · entropy 0.947 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 36.5%NO 63.5%YES p̂36.5%H = 0.947 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES2.74×(37¢)NO1.57×(64¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.947 bits (95% of max) · high uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-07-01 03:59 UTC
16days
13hrs
21min
16.56 days·θ = 37.503 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 36.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 63.5%)
current: $0.3650 · expected return per side: $0.64 on YES hit · $0.36 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+8.3dRESOLVESP projection · σ=7.66% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 37.503 pp/day
now16.56d left
37.503 pp/day×1.00
−25%12.42d left
43.304 pp/day×1.15
−50%8.28d left
53.037 pp/day×1.41
−75%4.14d left
75.005 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.66d left
118.593 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 18.00% · worst -2.50% · typical |Δ| 1.83%MILD BULLISH +30.00%BEST+18.00%24hWORST-2.50%2hTYPICAL |Δ|1.83%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+30.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.36% · Σ -2.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.25% · Σ +2.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ +1.56% · Σ +12.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +30.00%+30.00%-5.00%-1.50% · 1h-1.50% · 1h-1.50%1h-2.50% · 2h-2.50% · 2h-2.50%2h▼ WORST-1.00% · 3h-1.00% · 3h-1.00%3h1.00% · 4h1.00% · 4h1.00%4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.50% · 6h0.50% · 6h0.50%6h1.00% · 7h1.00% · 7h1.00%7h0.50% · 8h0.50% · 8h0.50%8h-0.50% · 9h-0.50% · 9h-0.50%9h0.50% · 10h0.50% · 10h0.50%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h-1.00% · 12h-1.00% · 12h-1.00%12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h2.50% · 15h2.50% · 15h2.50%15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h-0.50% · 19h-0.50% · 19h-0.50%19h3.00% · 20h3.00% · 20h3.00%20h7.50% · 21h7.50% · 21h7.50%21h2.50% · 22h2.50% · 22h2.50%22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h18.00% · 24h18.00% · 24h18.00%24h★ BESTTIME PATTERNUS-led (+12.50%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH42% up · 25% down · 33% flat
10 up bars · 6 down · best 18.00% · worst -2.50% · typical |Δ| 1.833%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +32.46%FINAL+32.46%MAX DD-4.92%RECOVERYFULLY RECOVEREDMAX RUN-UP+32.46%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.3246 · peak 1.3246 · range [0.9508, 1.3246]1.32460.9508break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.3246UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.92% · moderate0%-4.92%▼ TROUGH -4.92%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -4.92%bar 2-20 · 19 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.92%)RECOVERYfully recoveredTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 1.3246 (32.46%) · max DD -4.92% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +15 / −4 (79% positive) · μ=30.33 · σ=34.19PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 68.57 (+1.12σ vs μ)68.5734.290.00-34.29-68.57μ = 30.33-41.37-41.37-11.42-11.4241.4441.4466.7266.7260.4260.4260.4260.4210.6010.60-13.34-13.34-30.21-30.2126.6926.6919.9519.9519.9519.9538.2138.2128.8828.8851.8151.8149.9149.9164.4964.4964.4964.4968.5768.57v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 68.571 · range [-41.37, 68.57] · μ 30.327 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=148.3929 · σ=145.0336 · range [48.3322, 649.4005] · R²=0.446▲ RISING +425.75%σ EXTREME 97.74%LAST 649.4005649.4005499.1334348.8663198.599348.3322μ = 148.3929max 649.4005min 48.3322dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.45μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 649.40% · range [48.33%, 649.40%] · μ 148.39% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.040 · σ=0.225MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.217 (-0.79σ vs μ)0.3960.1980.000-0.198-0.396μ = -0.0400.3960.3960.2200.220-0.333-0.333-0.150-0.150-0.083-0.083-0.083-0.083-0.018-0.018-0.346-0.346-0.271-0.2710.0330.033-0.064-0.064-0.100-0.100-0.233-0.233-0.162-0.162-0.157-0.1570.2880.2880.3190.3190.2050.205-0.217-0.217v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.217 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
227.2233
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.0594
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6934
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
3.2834
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9990
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.2774
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7815
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (8 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5947
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0231
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.0746
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2826
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.673 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.61e-3 · top T=3.43h (16.0%) · top-3 cover 40.7%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)3.1e-32.3e-31.5e-37.7e-40.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 24.0 · power 2.38e-3 · 12.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.38e-3 · 12.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.43e-3 · 7.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.43e-3 · 7.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.60e-3 · 8.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.60e-3 · 8.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.00e-4 · 1.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.00e-4 · 1.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.27e-3 · 6.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.27e-3 · 6.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.80e-3 · 9.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.80e-3 · 9.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.10e-3 · 16.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.10e-3 · 16.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.41e-3 · 12.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.41e-3 · 12.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.57e-3 · 8.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.57e-3 · 8.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.10e-3 · 5.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.10e-3 · 5.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.57e-3 · 8.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.57e-3 · 8.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.37e-4 · 4.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.37e-4 · 4.8% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=3.00h#3T=24.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 16.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.937e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1629 bars · effective 1752908 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 16.6 d · σ/bar 0.328pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 6.54ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2318 · n = 1629✓ n = 1629
μ per bar
+0.014pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.328pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
1.61pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move17d
6.54pp
σ × √397.3662716666667
Terminal variancebinary
0.2318
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
36.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.52pp · ES₉₅ 0.66pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.014pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.50pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 1629
VaR 95%
0.52pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.66pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
13.1pp
peak 30.5¢ → trough 26.5¢
Median step
1.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
36.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
2.740
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+174
$100 wins $174
FractionalUK
1.74 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$173.97
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 36.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.947 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.947 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.45 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.66 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
15711724989187675365322421438396587654238062599131070048873290177037292338695
NO token ID
4017912593599938484256756083871284656904019236759446983213790366897773512297
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:37:01 UTC
Snapshot age
18ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:37:01 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
dce33bcbe5c2d54f7198c0d76c6ee1c23cae40e309dd17e7d64f1d33a3e93bad · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain90.0¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,948HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,656.9HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$59.84

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Iran closes its airspace by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.475000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1052.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.533
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.214
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-june-30-20260609184136054/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.6023122680.25bp0.65000011FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.8688108290.74bp0.99000033FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.9016088981.21bp0.99000033PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.2658604402.95bp0.2400008FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1031017829.45bp0.01000027PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.1031017829.45bp0.01000027PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,629 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1666.87%
σ per bar = 0.012590
Mean return (annualised)
111157.07%
μ per bar = 0.000634
Sharpe (rf=0)
66.69
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
13.11%
peak 0.30 → trough 0.27 over 164 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-june-30-20260609184136054/risk · same metrics, JSON