TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “airspace · israel · closes” (9 markets)
Top terms: airspaceisraelclosesiranpermanentpeace
- Israel closes its airspace by June 14?6.2¢ YES · $383.9k 24h
- Israel closes its airspace by June 15?10.8¢ YES · $330.0k 24h
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?21.5¢ YES · $106.8k 24h
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?5.0¢ YES · $96.7k 24h
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?14.8¢ YES · $251.6k 24h
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?9.8¢ YES · $165.8k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?15.5¢ YES · $120.8k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?19.5¢ YES · $83.2k 24h
- ★ Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?35.5¢ YES · $38.4k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -7.291 | 117 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -5.739 | 117 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -5.274 | 117 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -5.135 | 117 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.789 | 117 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.771 | 117 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.549 | 117 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.293 | 117 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-june-30-20260609184136054 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
790.43%
max drawdown
43.01%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
12.06%
RMS drawdown
pain index
4.88%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
43.01%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.90
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.90
upside/downside
roll spread
12.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1903
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-june-30-20260609184136054/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →