POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · IRAN CLOSES ITS AIRSPACE BY...?

Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?

YES · live
26.8¢
NO · live
73.2¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-june-15-20260609184136053 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
857.07%
max drawdown
27.11%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
11.97%
RMS drawdown
pain index
8.19%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
27.11%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
2.73
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
2.73
upside/downside
roll spread
38.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
715
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-june-15-20260609184136053/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH23ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
26.8¢
NO · live
73.2¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0572 · σ=0.0606 · range [0.0250, 0.2610] · R²=0.353▲ RISING +480.00%σ EXTREME 106.10%LAST 0.26100.26100.20200.14300.08400.0250μ = 0.0572max 0.2610min 0.0250dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.35μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 26.10¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 26.8%NO 73.2%NO73.2%73.20¢ · odds 1/1.37
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.839 / 1.00 bits (84%) · high uncertainty
YES
26.8%26.8¢3.73×▬ +0.00pp
NO
73.2%73.2¢1.37×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=2,920 · μ=121.7 · σ=200.4 · CV=1.65BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=220155310465620μ = 12262050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 2920bp moved · peak 620bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
23ms
▲YES mid
26.80¢ (26.80%)
▼NO mid
73.20¢ (73.20%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$51.3k
≋liquidity $
$8.3k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0572 · σ=0.0606 · range [0.0250, 0.2610] · R²=0.353▲ RISING +480.00%σ EXTREME 106.10%LAST 0.26100.26100.20200.14300.08400.0250μ = 0.0572max 0.2610min 0.0250dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.35μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 26.10¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9428 · σ=0.0606 · range [0.7390, 0.9750] · R²=0.353▼ FALLING -22.62%σ HIGH 6.43%LAST 0.73900.97500.91600.85700.79800.7390μ = 0.9428max 0.9750min 0.7390dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.35μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 73.90¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0084 · σ=0.0206 · skew=1.65 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.10 (leptokurtic (fat tails))13107304-0.78ppbin -0.78pp · n=4 · 30.8% peakbin -0.78pp · n=4 · 30.8% peak13-0.05ppbin -0.05pp · n=13 · 100.0% peakbin -0.05pp · n=13 · 100.0% peak20.69ppbin 0.69pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakbin 0.69pp · n=2 · 15.4% peak11.42ppbin 1.42pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin 1.42pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak2.16pp2.89pp3.63pp14.36ppbin 4.36pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin 4.36pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak15.10ppbin 5.10pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin 5.10pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak25.83ppbin 5.83pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakbin 5.83pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.62 · kurt=1.02 · near 6 / mid 17 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.84 intercept=-0.00RIGHT-SKEWED · HEAVY POSITIVE TAILFAT UPPER TAILTHIN LOWER TAIL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=3.79)
μ MEAN5.72¢95% CI: [3.34¢, 8.09¢]
σ STD DEV6.06ppσ² = 36.778 · CV = 106.10%
med MEDIAN3.05¢Q₁ 2.75¢ · Q₃ 4.35¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 23.60pp · IQR 1.60pp (1.349σ→8.18pp)
min 2.50¢Q₁ 2.75¢med 3.05¢Q₃ 4.35¢max 26.10¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁2.200right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂3.788leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.44
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 5.11
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.89
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.547positive · momentum
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.587lag-2 dependence detected
H · HURST EXPONENT0.853strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+3.544significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.853
H = 0.853STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..52 SIGNIFICANT LAGS · k=1,2
k=1+0.547k=2 ★+0.587k=3+0.223k=4+0.192k=5-0.0520+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.54)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.54)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2481461
SLUGwill-iran-close-…609184136053
CATEGORYIran closes its airspace by...?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (73¢)
PRIMARY · YES26.80¢implied prob 26.80% · decimal odds 3.73×
COUNTER · NO73.20¢implied prob 73.20% · decimal odds 1.37×
26.80¢
73.20¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME51.31k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY8.33k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (73¢)|primary − counter| = 0.464 · entropy 0.839 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 26.8%NO 73.2%YES p̂26.8%H = 0.839 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES3.73×(27¢)NO1.37×(73¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.839 bits (84% of max) · high uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · MEDIUMresolves 2026-06-16 03:59 UTC
1days
13hrs
22min
1.56 days·θ = 29.710 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 26.8%)
NO →$0.00(P = 73.2%)
current: $0.2680 · expected return per side: $0.73 on YES hit · $0.27 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+0.8dRESOLVESP projection · σ=6.06% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 29.710 pp/day
now1.56d left
29.710 pp/day×1.00
−25%1.17d left
34.306 pp/day×1.15
−50%18.69h left
42.016 pp/day×1.41
−75%9.34h left
59.419 pp/day×2.00
−90%3.74h left
93.950 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 6.20% · worst -1.15% · typical |Δ| 1.22%MILD BULLISH +21.60%BEST+6.20%22hWORST-1.15%10hTYPICAL |Δ|1.22%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+21.60%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 5up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.14% · Σ -1.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.09% · Σ -0.75%US · 16-24 UTCμ +2.20% · Σ +17.60%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +21.60%+21.60%-2.00%-0.50% · 1h-0.50% · 1h-0.50%1h-0.45% · 2h-0.45% · 2h-0.45%2h-0.50% · 3h-0.50% · 3h-0.50%3h-0.30% · 4h-0.30% · 4h-0.30%4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.65% · 6h0.65% · 6h0.65%6h0.10% · 7h0.10% · 7h0.10%7h0.85% · 8h0.85% · 8h0.85%8h-0.30% · 9h-0.30% · 9h-0.30%9h-1.15% · 10h-1.15% · 10h-1.15%10h▼ WORST0.05% · 11h0.05% · 11h0.05%11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h-0.05% · 13h-0.05% · 13h-0.05%13h-0.20% · 14h-0.20% · 14h-0.20%14h0.05% · 15h0.05% · 15h0.05%15h-0.05% · 16h-0.05% · 16h-0.05%16h-0.10% · 17h-0.10% · 17h-0.10%17h0.10% · 18h0.10% · 18h0.10%18h-0.20% · 19h-0.20% · 19h-0.20%19h5.30% · 20h5.30% · 20h5.30%20h1.65% · 21h1.65% · 21h1.65%21h6.20% · 22h6.20% · 22h6.20%22h★ BEST4.70% · 23h4.70% · 23h4.70%23h5.75% · 24h5.75% · 24h5.75%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+17.60%)RUNSup max 5 · down max 4BREADTH46% up · 46% down · 8% flat
11 up bars · 11 down · best 6.20% · worst -1.15% · typical |Δ| 1.217%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSTRONG PROFIT +23.35% · SHALLOW DDFINAL+23.35%MAX DD-2.00%RECOVERYFULLY RECOVEREDMAX RUN-UP+23.35%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↗ 5EQUITY CURVE · end 1.2335 · peak 1.2335 · range [0.9800, 1.2335]1.23350.9800break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.2335UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.00% · moderate0%-2.00%▼ TROUGH -2.00%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -2.00%bar 2-20 · 19 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.00%)RECOVERYfully recoveredTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 1.2335 (23.35%) · max DD -2.00% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=4.94 · σ=55.75MIXED EDGELAST 141.69 (+2.45σ vs μ)141.6970.840.00-70.84-141.69μ = 4.94-38.12-38.12-18.05-18.0523.6823.6832.2732.273.273.274.364.36-10.80-10.80-14.51-14.51-57.45-57.45-43.47-43.47-33.51-33.51-63.40-63.40-36.50-36.50-49.85-49.8536.4536.4548.3248.3270.2470.2499.2999.29141.69141.69v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 141.687 · range [-63.40, 141.69] · μ 4.943 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=91.2913 · σ=91.7004 · range [8.0604, 269.1958] · R²=0.447▲ RISING +472.26%σ EXTREME 100.45%LAST 241.1226269.1958203.9119138.628173.34428.0604μ = 91.2913max 269.1958min 8.0604dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.45μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 241.12% · range [8.06%, 269.20%] · μ 91.29% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.077 · σ=0.254CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.324 (-0.97σ vs μ)0.5350.2680.000-0.268-0.535μ = -0.0770.3330.3330.4510.4510.1600.160-0.342-0.3420.0810.0810.0770.0770.0330.033-0.056-0.056-0.094-0.094-0.136-0.136-0.237-0.237-0.418-0.418-0.381-0.381-0.535-0.535-0.067-0.0670.0310.031-0.038-0.038-0.001-0.001-0.324-0.324v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.324 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
14.4756
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0007
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
20.6223
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0011
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
5.0229
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9990
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.8739
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3822
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4587
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0519
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
3.1098
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0019
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 1.946 → trending
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.76e-4 · top T=24.00h (33.6%) · top-3 cover 69.8%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.9e-31.4e-39.6e-44.8e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.92e-3 · 33.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.92e-3 · 33.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.21e-3 · 21.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.21e-3 · 21.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.50e-4 · 14.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.50e-4 · 14.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.93e-5 · 1.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.93e-5 · 1.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.15e-5 · 0.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.15e-5 · 0.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.22e-4 · 3.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.22e-4 · 3.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.60e-5 · 1.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.60e-5 · 1.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.17e-4 · 2.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.17e-4 · 2.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.73e-5 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.73e-5 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.57e-4 · 2.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.57e-4 · 2.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.27e-4 · 7.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.27e-4 · 7.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.80e-4 · 10.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.80e-4 · 10.2% energy50% by T=12.0h#1 dominantT=24.00h#2T=12.00h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 24.00h (freq 0.042) · concentrates 33.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 5.712e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (715 bars · effective 1753005 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 1.6 d · σ/bar 0.648pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 3.96ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1962 · n = 715✓ n = 715
μ per bar
+0.027pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.648pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
3.17pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move2d
3.96pp
σ × √37.373335
Terminal variancebinary
0.1962
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
26.8¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 1.04pp · ES₉₅ 1.31pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.027pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 715
VaR 95%
1.04pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
1.31pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
27.1pp
peak 24.9¢ → trough 18.1¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
26.8%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
3.731
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+273
$100 wins $273
FractionalUK
2.73 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$273.13
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 26.8%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.839 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.839 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.90 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.45 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
55746784087086771827568718041066357959535967490804709487680924093038852162060
NO token ID
44012958786121362868852301896134799022791468991368463141768677299924121272723
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:36:35 UTC
Snapshot age
23ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:36:35 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
c8397ead7115772a3227a4df6d99ddb184e96088fe8dd8539a296ee8324e3612 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain90.0¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,959.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,657.05HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$59.88

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Iran closes its airspace by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.266000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2556.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.086
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.692
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-june-15-20260609184136053/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.3670893800.34bp0.46000011FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.71068116717.33bp0.98000042FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.82688921086.03bp0.99900047PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1727373506.11bp0.14700021FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0877396701.56bp0.00100053PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0877396701.56bp0.00100053PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 715 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
5112.35%
σ per bar = 0.038613
Mean return (annualised)
309416.14%
μ per bar = 0.001765
Sharpe (rf=0)
60.52
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
27.11%
peak 0.25 → trough 0.18 over 83 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-june-15-20260609184136053/risk · same metrics, JSON