POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · IRAN CLOSES ITS AIRSPACE BY...?

Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?

YES · live
27.4¢
NO · live
72.6¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-june-14-20260609184136052 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
445.35%
max drawdown
29.63%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
11.32%
RMS drawdown
pain index
5.85%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
29.63%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
4.47
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
4.47
upside/downside
roll spread
54.8 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-june-14-20260609184136052/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH29ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
27.4¢
NO · live
72.6¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0407 · σ=0.0618 · range [0.0095, 0.2770] · R²=0.310▲ RISING +1357.89%σ EXTREME 152.03%LAST 0.27700.27700.21010.14330.07640.0095μ = 0.0407max 0.2770min 0.0095dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.31μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 27.70¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 27.4%NO 72.6%NO72.6%72.60¢ · odds 1/1.38
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.847 / 1.00 bits (85%) · high uncertainty
YES
27.4%27.4¢3.65×▬ +0.00pp
NO
72.6%72.6¢1.38×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=3,050 · μ=127.1 · σ=253.5 · CV=1.99BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=230246493739985μ = 12798550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 3050bp moved · peak 985bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
29ms
▲YES mid
27.40¢ (27.40%)
▼NO mid
72.60¢ (72.60%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$85.1k
≋liquidity $
$6.8k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0407 · σ=0.0618 · range [0.0095, 0.2770] · R²=0.310▲ RISING +1357.89%σ EXTREME 152.03%LAST 0.27700.27700.21010.14330.07640.0095μ = 0.0407max 0.2770min 0.0095dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.31μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 27.70¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9593 · σ=0.0618 · range [0.7230, 0.9905] · R²=0.310▼ FALLING -26.30%σ HIGH 6.44%LAST 0.72300.99050.92360.85680.78990.7230μ = 0.9593max 0.9905min 0.7230dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.31μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 72.30¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0121 · σ=0.0239 · skew=2.24 (right-skewed) · kurt=4.08 (leptokurtic (fat tails))17139401-0.98ppbin -0.98pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin -0.98pp · n=1 · 5.9% peak170.16ppbin 0.16pp · n=17 · 100.0% peakbin 0.16pp · n=17 · 100.0% peak11.30ppbin 1.30pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin 1.30pp · n=1 · 5.9% peak22.44ppbin 2.44pp · n=2 · 11.8% peakbin 2.44pp · n=2 · 11.8% peak3.58pp14.72ppbin 4.72pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin 4.72pp · n=1 · 5.9% peak5.86pp17.00ppbin 7.00pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin 7.00pp · n=1 · 5.9% peak8.14pp19.28ppbin 9.28pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin 9.28pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=2.29 · kurt=4.44 · near 6 / mid 16 / far 2 · OLS slope=0.80 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSMILDLY HEAVY UPPERTHIN LOWER TAIL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=6.61)
μ MEAN4.07¢95% CI: [1.64¢, 6.49¢]
σ STD DEV6.18ppσ² = 38.210 · CV = 152.03%
med MEDIAN1.75¢Q₁ 1.40¢ · Q₃ 2.95¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 26.75pp · IQR 1.55pp (1.349σ→8.34pp)
min 0.95¢Q₁ 1.40¢med 1.75¢Q₃ 2.95¢max 27.70¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁2.679right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂6.606leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.37
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 5.38
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.33
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.600positive · momentum
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.321lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.934strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+3.214significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.934
H = 0.934STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★+0.600k=2+0.321k=3+0.310k=4+0.094k=5-0.0210+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.21)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.21)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2481460
SLUGwill-iran-close-…609184136052
CATEGORYIran closes its airspace by...?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (73¢)
PRIMARY · YES27.40¢implied prob 27.40% · decimal odds 3.65×
COUNTER · NO72.60¢implied prob 72.60% · decimal odds 1.38×
27.40¢
72.60¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME85.08k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY6.81k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (73¢)|primary − counter| = 0.452 · entropy 0.847 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 27.4%NO 72.6%YES p̂27.4%H = 0.847 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES3.65×(27¢)NO1.38×(73¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.847 bits (85% of max) · high uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · HIGHresolves 2026-06-15 03:59 UTC
0days
13hrs
22min
13.4 hours·θ = 30.282 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 27.4%)
NO →$0.00(P = 72.6%)
current: $0.2740 · expected return per side: $0.73 on YES hit · $0.27 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+6.7hRESOLVESP projection · σ=6.18% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 30.282 pp/day
now13.37h left
30.282 pp/day×1.00
−25%10.03h left
34.967 pp/day×1.15
−50%6.69h left
42.826 pp/day×1.41
−75%3.34h left
60.565 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.34h left
95.762 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 9.85% · worst -1.55% · typical |Δ| 1.27%MILD BULLISH +25.80%BEST+9.85%24hWORST-1.55%10hTYPICAL |Δ|1.27%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+25.80%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 5up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.20%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.09% · Σ -0.75%US · 16-24 UTCμ +2.06% · Σ +16.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +25.80%+25.80%-0.95%-0.15% · 1h-0.15% · 1h-0.15%1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.40% · 4h0.40% · 4h0.40%4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h-0.05% · 6h-0.05% · 6h-0.05%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h1.00% · 8h1.00% · 8h1.00%8h-0.15% · 9h-0.15% · 9h-0.15%9h-1.55% · 10h-1.55% · 10h-1.55%10h▼ WORST0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h-0.05% · 12h-0.05% · 12h-0.05%12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h-0.40% · 16h-0.40% · 16h-0.40%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.45% · 18h0.45% · 18h0.45%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h2.05% · 20h2.05% · 20h2.05%20h4.25% · 21h4.25% · 21h4.25%21h2.65% · 22h2.65% · 22h2.65%22h7.50% · 23h7.50% · 23h7.50%23h9.85% · 24h9.85% · 24h9.85%24h★ BESTTIME PATTERNUS-led (+16.50%)RUNSup max 5 · down max 2BREADTH33% up · 25% down · 42% flat
8 up bars · 6 down · best 9.85% · worst -1.55% · typical |Δ| 1.271%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +28.29%FINAL+28.29%MAX DD-2.14%RECOVERYFULLY RECOVEREDMAX RUN-UP+28.29%UNDERWATER16/25 (64%)STREAK↗ 5EQUITY CURVE · end 1.2829 · peak 1.2829 · range [0.9904, 1.2829]1.28290.9904break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.2829UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.14% · moderate0%-2.14%▼ TROUGH -2.14%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -2.14%bar 10-20 · 11 bars · recovered#2 -0.15%bar 2-4 · 3 bars · recovered#3 -0.05%bar 7-8 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.14%)RECOVERYfully recoveredTIME UNDER WATER64% of session · 16/25 bars
final equity 1.2829 (28.29%) · max DD -2.14% · time-under-water 16/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +11 / −8 (58% positive) · μ=16.08 · σ=48.54MIXED EDGELAST 111.84 (+1.97σ vs μ)111.8455.920.00-55.92-111.84μ = 16.0816.5216.5232.3932.3950.8150.8143.0643.06-14.33-14.33-14.33-14.33-14.33-14.33-14.33-14.33-44.09-44.09-39.68-39.68-43.74-43.74-43.74-43.742.902.902.902.9037.4337.4355.5355.5385.3385.3395.4595.45111.84111.84v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 111.842 · range [-44.09, 111.84] · μ 16.084 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=85.6510 · σ=88.6247 · range [15.0190, 343.3244] · R²=0.445▲ RISING +1842.32%σ EXTREME 103.47%LAST 343.3244343.3244261.2480179.171797.095315.0190μ = 85.6510max 343.3244min 15.0190dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.44μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 343.32% · range [15.02%, 343.32%] · μ 85.65% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.006 · σ=0.210MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.333 (+1.61σ vs μ)0.4700.2350.000-0.235-0.470μ = -0.006-0.081-0.081-0.168-0.168-0.151-0.151-0.402-0.4020.0500.050-0.006-0.006-0.006-0.006-0.046-0.046-0.167-0.167-0.043-0.043-0.073-0.073-0.277-0.2770.0090.009-0.001-0.001-0.037-0.0370.3110.3110.4700.4700.1760.1760.3330.333v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.333 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
57.9026
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
15.8617
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0074
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
10.0533
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9990
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-1.0566
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2907
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (6 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4370
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0612
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
1.4436
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1489
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.439 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=6.63e-4 · top T=24.00h (35.1%) · top-3 cover 66.8%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.8e-32.1e-31.4e-37.0e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.80e-3 · 35.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.80e-3 · 35.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.46e-3 · 18.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.46e-3 · 18.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.05e-3 · 13.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.05e-3 · 13.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.49e-4 · 4.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.49e-4 · 4.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.34e-4 · 4.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.34e-4 · 4.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.89e-4 · 7.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.89e-4 · 7.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.09e-4 · 3.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.09e-4 · 3.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.93e-4 · 7.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.93e-4 · 7.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.45e-4 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.45e-4 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.58e-5 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.58e-5 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.69e-5 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.69e-5 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.50e-5 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.50e-5 · 0.4% energy50% by T=12.0h#1 dominantT=24.00h#2T=12.00h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 24.00h (freq 0.042) · concentrates 35.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 7.958e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3135 bars · effective 1752908 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.6 d · σ/bar 0.270pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.99ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1989 · n = 3135✓ n = 3135
μ per bar
+0.008pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.270pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
1.32pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move1d
0.99pp
σ × √13.373268055555554
Terminal variancebinary
0.1989
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
27.4¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.44pp · ES₉₅ 0.55pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.008pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.40pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 3135
VaR 95%
0.44pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.55pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
71.2pp
peak 3.3¢ → trough 0.9¢
Median step
0.40pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
27.4%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
3.650
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+265
$100 wins $265
FractionalUK
2.65 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$264.96
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 27.4%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.847 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.847 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.87 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.46 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
37158553842438723612233094615956244324408257743701944759068020968814664642923
NO token ID
63982800272592512779698912195947839409824976065349891331001784174066295462415
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:36:36 UTC
Snapshot age
29ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:36:36 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
074c88ed12f3ba07d715b164f41ba6a39096d389516abdc2ddd2a890cd8d4387 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain90.0¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,959.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,657.05HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$59.88

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Iran closes its airspace by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.283000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2120.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.877
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.291
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-june-14-20260609184136052/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.3758143279.65bp0.42700013FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.68988514377.56bp0.99000040FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.89613321665.48bp0.99900045PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1164035886.81bp0.07000038FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0049249826.02bp0.00100055PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0049249826.02bp0.00100055PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,135 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
3660.68%
σ per bar = 0.027649
Mean return (annualised)
120988.71%
μ per bar = 0.000690
Sharpe (rf=0)
33.05
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
71.21%
peak 0.03 → trough 0.01 over 1566 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-june-14-20260609184136052/risk · same metrics, JSON