POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · IRAN CLOSES ITS AIRSPACE BY...?

Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?

YES · live
24.5¢
NO · live
75.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-august-31-20260609184136057 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
677.58%
max drawdown
49.47%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
35.41%
RMS drawdown
pain index
32.11%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
49.47%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.45
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.45
upside/downside
roll spread
13.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
941
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-august-31-20260609184136057/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
24.5¢
NO · live
75.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.3588 · σ=0.0959 · range [0.2400, 0.6650] · R²=0.075▼ FALLING -8.06%σ EXTREME 26.74%LAST 0.28500.66500.55880.45250.34630.2400μ = 0.3588max 0.6650min 0.2400dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.07μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 28.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 24.5%NO 75.5%NO75.5%75.50¢ · odds 1/1.32
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.803 / 1.00 bits (80%) · high uncertainty
YES
24.5%24.5¢4.08×▬ +0.00pp
NO
75.5%75.5¢1.32×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=12,050 · μ=502.1 · σ=599.7 · CV=1.19BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1805131,0251,5382,050μ = 5022,05050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 12050bp moved · peak 2050bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2ms
▲YES mid
24.50¢ (24.50%)
▼NO mid
75.50¢ (75.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$37.3k
≋liquidity $
$11.0k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.3588 · σ=0.0959 · range [0.2400, 0.6650] · R²=0.075▼ FALLING -8.06%σ EXTREME 26.74%LAST 0.28500.66500.55880.45250.34630.2400μ = 0.3588max 0.6650min 0.2400dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.07μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 28.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.6412 · σ=0.0959 · range [0.3350, 0.7600] · R²=0.075▲ RISING +3.62%σ HIGH 14.96%LAST 0.71500.76000.65380.54750.44130.3350μ = 0.6412max 0.7600min 0.3350dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.07μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 71.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0007 · σ=0.0777 · skew=-0.38 (symmetric) · kurt=0.57 (mesokurtic)13107301-18.53ppbin -18.53pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin -18.53pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak1-14.57ppbin -14.57pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin -14.57pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak2-10.63ppbin -10.63pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakbin -10.63pp · n=2 · 15.4% peak1-6.67ppbin -6.67pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin -6.67pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak1-2.72ppbin -2.72pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin -2.72pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak131.23ppbin 1.23pp · n=13 · 100.0% peakbin 1.23pp · n=13 · 100.0% peak25.18ppbin 5.18pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakbin 5.18pp · n=2 · 15.4% peak19.13ppbin 9.13pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin 9.13pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak113.08ppbin 13.08pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin 13.08pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak117.03ppbin 17.03pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin 17.03pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.28 · kurt=1.36 · near 15 / mid 9 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.46)
μ MEAN35.88¢95% CI: [32.12¢, 39.64¢]
σ STD DEV9.59ppσ² = 92.048 · CV = 26.74%
med MEDIAN31.50¢Q₁ 31.50¢ · Q₃ 41.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 42.50pp · IQR 10.00pp (1.349σ→12.94pp)
min 24.00¢Q₁ 31.50¢med 31.50¢Q₃ 41.50¢max 66.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.463right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.928leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.46
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.29
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.43
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.22 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.216within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.013lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.016strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+1.364fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.016
H = 1.016STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.216k=2-0.013k=3-0.025k=4+0.039k=5-0.0160+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.36)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.22 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.36)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2481465
SLUGwill-iran-close-…609184136057
CATEGORYIran closes its airspace by...?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (76¢)
PRIMARY · YES24.50¢implied prob 24.50% · decimal odds 4.08×
COUNTER · NO75.50¢implied prob 75.50% · decimal odds 1.32×
24.50¢
75.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME37.29k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY10.97k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (76¢)|primary − counter| = 0.510 · entropy 0.803 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 24.5%NO 75.5%YES p̂24.5%H = 0.803 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES4.08×(25¢)NO1.32×(76¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.803 bits (80% of max) · high uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-09-01 03:59 UTC
78days
03hrs
23min
78.14 days·θ = 47.001 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 24.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 75.5%)
current: $0.2450 · expected return per side: $0.76 on YES hit · $0.24 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+39.1dRESOLVESP projection · σ=9.59% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 47.001 pp/day
now78.14d left
47.001 pp/day×1.00
−25%58.61d left
54.273 pp/day×1.15
−50%39.07d left
66.470 pp/day×1.41
−75%19.54d left
94.003 pp/day×2.00
−90%7.81d left
148.632 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 19.00% · worst -20.50% · typical |Δ| 5.02%MILD BEARISH -2.50%BEST+19.00%18hWORST-20.50%19hTYPICAL |Δ|5.02%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +2.69% · Σ +21.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ -3.44% · Σ -27.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.50%+35.50%-7.00%0.50% · 1h0.50% · 1h0.50%1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h-3.00% · 3h-3.00% · 3h-3.00%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h3.00% · 5h3.00% · 5h3.00%5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h2.50% · 11h2.50% · 11h2.50%11h2.50% · 12h2.50% · 12h2.50%12h5.50% · 13h5.50% · 13h5.50%13h-0.50% · 14h-0.50% · 14h-0.50%14h11.50% · 15h11.50% · 15h11.50%15h-9.50% · 16h-9.50% · 16h-9.50%16h4.00% · 17h4.00% · 17h4.00%17h19.00% · 18h19.00% · 18h19.00%18h★ BEST-20.50% · 19h-20.50% · 19h-20.50%19h▼ WORST-9.00% · 20h-9.00% · 20h-9.00%20h-13.00% · 21h-13.00% · 21h-13.00%21h7.50% · 22h7.50% · 22h7.50%22h-6.00% · 23h-6.00% · 23h-6.00%23h3.00% · 24h3.00% · 24h3.00%24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+21.50%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH42% up · 29% down · 29% flat
10 up bars · 7 down · best 19.00% · worst -20.50% · typical |Δ| 5.021%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -9.41%FINAL-9.41%MAX DD-37.06%RECOVERYONGOING · 6 barsMAX RUN-UP+38.29%UNDERWATER17/25 (68%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9059 · peak 1.3829 · range [0.8704, 1.3829]1.38290.8704break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.3829UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -37.06% · severe0%-37.06%▼ TROUGH -37.06%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -37.06%bar 20-25 · 6 bars · ONGOING#2 -9.50%bar 17-18 · 2 bars · recovered#3 -3.00%bar 4-11 · 8 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsevere (max -37.06%)RECOVERYongoing · 6 barsTIME UNDER WATER68% of session · 17/25 bars
final equity 0.9059 (-9.41%) · max DD -37.06% · time-under-water 17/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +12 / −5 (63% positive) · μ=19.75 · σ=37.64MIXED EDGELAST -57.53 (-2.05σ vs μ)75.6737.840.00-37.84-75.67μ = 19.754.094.090.000.000.000.0038.2138.2138.2138.2138.2138.2160.4260.4274.1874.1867.9767.9775.6775.6726.9326.9330.0930.0947.7647.764.374.37-4.74-4.74-32.03-32.03-12.74-12.74-23.76-23.76-57.53-57.53v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -57.529 · range [-57.53, 75.67] · μ 19.754 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=619.6282 · σ=522.0031 · range [95.5249, 1386.5789] · R²=0.795▲ RISING +439.94%σ EXTREME 84.24%LAST 964.37541386.57891063.8154741.0519418.288495.5249μ = 619.6282max 1386.5789min 95.5249dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.79μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 964.38% · range [95.52%, 1386.58%] · μ 619.63% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −15 (11% positive) · μ=-0.156 · σ=0.274MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.055 (+0.37σ vs μ)0.6650.3320.000-0.332-0.665μ = -0.156-0.000-0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000-0.233-0.233-0.033-0.033-0.033-0.0330.4170.4170.3360.336-0.115-0.115-0.379-0.379-0.579-0.579-0.665-0.665-0.276-0.276-0.475-0.475-0.257-0.257-0.105-0.105-0.149-0.149-0.357-0.357-0.055-0.055v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.055 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
4.3033
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1163
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.3417
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9296
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.0394
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2794
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.9145
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3605
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (11 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2406
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2858
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.7678
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4426
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.766 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=6.11e-3 · top T=2.18h (15.5%) · top-3 cover 42.6%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)1.1e-28.5e-35.7e-32.8e-30.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 24.0 · power 4.46e-3 · 6.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.46e-3 · 6.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.15e-3 · 7.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.15e-3 · 7.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.63e-3 · 3.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.63e-3 · 3.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.60e-3 · 7.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.60e-3 · 7.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.02e-3 · 5.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.02e-3 · 5.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.34e-3 · 10.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.34e-3 · 10.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.61e-3 · 13.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.61e-3 · 13.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.41e-3 · 6.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.41e-3 · 6.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.10e-3 · 7.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.10e-3 · 7.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.02e-2 · 14.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.02e-2 · 14.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.14e-2 · 15.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.14e-2 · 15.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.38e-3 · 4.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.38e-3 · 4.6% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.18h#2T=2.40h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 15.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 7.329e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (941 bars · effective 1753103 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 78.1 d · σ/bar 0.512pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 22.17ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1850 · n = 941✓ n = 941
μ per bar
-0.021pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.512pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
2.51pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move78d
22.17pp
σ × √1875.3944530555557
Terminal variancebinary
0.1850
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
24.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.86pp · ES₉₅ 1.08pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.021pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 941
VaR 95%
0.86pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
1.08pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
49.5pp
peak 47.5¢ → trough 24.0¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
24.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
4.082
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+308
$100 wins $308
FractionalUK
3.08 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$308.16
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 24.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.803 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.803 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
2.03 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.41 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
5620895953218222415030735136733288359025598321987405594359603483570680881920
NO token ID
48449720393463951576553851713966927325113950546625158359759332220097699959385
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-15 00:35:19 UTC
Snapshot age
2ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-15 00:35:19 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
cfaf213781c3c35bcda4db6e03c45b2cfd5cc4bcbca77b10800b81173f26deab · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDDraw100.0¢HL PREDSpain91.3¢HL PREDUruguay65.8¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?85¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$65,575.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,722.25HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$63.97

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Iran closes its airspace by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.285000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3157.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.810
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.825
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-august-31-20260609184136057/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.5533219414.76bp0.64000010FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.80822918358.91bp0.98000026FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.84233719555.69bp0.99000027PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.2041832835.68bp0.1900005FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0528398146.01bp0.01000020PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0528398146.01bp0.01000020PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 941 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
2131.90%
σ per bar = 0.016101
Mean return (annualised)
-111306.36%
μ per bar = -0.000635
Sharpe (rf=0)
-52.21
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
49.47%
peak 0.47 → trough 0.24 over 434 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-august-31-20260609184136057/risk · same metrics, JSON