NOSTRADAMUS · Position Analytics Engine
SIMULATOR Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?
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A live, interactive instrument for dissecting a single binary position. Sweep the inputs and watch every indicator recompute — payoff geometry, Kelly growth, Bayesian posterior, KL divergence, cost waterfall, Monte-Carlo equity fan, forecast calibration. Companion to the live /feed/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-august-31-20260609184136057 page.
▲ YES EDGE · +0.027 · f★ 3.6% · deploy 1.8% · net 1.93pp
§1 · Position economics
YES · Expected P/L per share +0.0268@ model P(YES) = 0.272
P/L per sharemarket pricemodel Pprofit zoneloss zone
Profit is linear in the eventual settlement price.
f★ = 3.55% · g(f★) = 0.190%deploy 1.78% · g = 0.144%
g(f)f★ optimumdeployed fgrowth zone
Underbet leaves growth on the table; overbet destroys capital. The interior maximum is f★.
§2 · The trade ticket
YES @ 0.245 · EV +$49stake $444 · 1.78% of bankroll
Deployed stakestake
$444
1.78% of bankroll
Sharesunits
1,814
each pays $1 if YES
Max payoutwin
$1,814
gross, if win
Max profitwin
+$1,369
net of cost
Max losslose
-$444
binary settles to $0
Payout multiple×
×4.08
$1 → $4.08
Risk:RewardR:R
3.08 : 1
win $3.08 per $1
Expected P/LE[P/L]
+$49
probability-weighted
| Outcome | P(model) | P/L | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resolves YES (win) | 27.2% | +$1,369 | +$372 |
| Resolves against (lose) | 72.8% | -$444 | -$324 |
| Expected value | 100.0% | — | +$49 |
What you actually win and lose. The bottom table tabulates probability-weighted P/L by outcome.
§3 · Break-even & cushion
Cushion +2.7 pprelative edge +11.0%
Required win ratebreak-even
24.5%
price = implied probability
Model win rateP(win)
27.2%
what you forecast
Cushionedge
+2.7 pp
margin of safety
Fair pricemodel
0.272
where you think it should trade
The market price equals the win rate you must beat to make money.
§4 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
24.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
4.082
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+308
$100 wins $308
FractionalUK
3.08 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$308.16
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Five views of the same number.
§4b · Time & annualized return
APR 190% · APY 509%ROI 11.0% over 21d · 17.4 turns/yr
Time to resolvehorizon
21.0 d
504h capital lockup
Raw ROIper resolve
+11.0%
APR (simple)scaled
+190%
ROI × 365/days
APY (compounded)if redeployed
+509%
(1+ROI)^(365/d) − 1
Daily expectedper day
+0.50%
geometric, per day held
Capital turns/yrvelocity
×17.4
how often this slot recycles
simple APRcompounded APYyour horizon
Rank positions by APR, not raw ROI. A thin edge tomorrow beats a fat edge next year.
§5 · Costs & net edge
Net edge +1.93 pperosion 28% · break-even w/ fees 25.3%
gross edgefrictionnet edgefee 0 bps · spread 1.50¢
The number that decides whether to trade.
§6 · Sizing menu
Full Kellyf★
$889
3.55% · g = 0.190%
Half Kelly½ f★
$444
1.78% · g = 0.144%
Quarter Kelly¼ f★
$222
0.89% · g = 0.084%
Flat 1%1%
$250
1.00% · g = 0.093%
Flat 2%2%
$500
2.00% · g = 0.155%
Flat 5%5%
$1,250
5.00% · g = 0.161%
Recommended¼ f★
$222
survives model error
Quarter-Kelly is the industry default — survives model error far better than full Kelly.
§7 · Information theory
Market entropyH(p)
0.803 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.844 bit
Δ +0.041 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
2.03 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.41 bit
self-information
H(p) peaks at p = 0.5 (one bit of irreducible doubt).
NOISE · D_KL(q ‖ p) = 0.0019 nat (0.0027 bit)belief ≈ market — stand down
YES contributionNO contributionbelief ‖ marketnoise
Zero KL ⇒ you know nothing the crowd doesn't.
§8 · Bayesian inference
MARKET PRICE INSIDE 95% CIposterior μ 0.272 · CI [0.16, 0.40] · κ 54.0
Posterior meanE[θ]
0.272
Beta(14.7, 39.3)
95% credible intervalHDI
[0.16, 0.40]
price INSIDE → weak edge
Concentrationκ
54.0
pseudo-obs behind belief
Disagreementvs crowd
+2.7 pp
posterior − price
market prior (dashed)model posterior95% credible bandmarket price
When the market price falls outside the 95% credible interval, your disagreement is statistically meaningful.
§9 · Tail risk · Monte-Carlo (mode A · single position to resolution)
E[P/L] +22.4% · P(YES) 30.0% · VaR₉₅ 100.0%400 paths · 504 bars to resolution
Expected P/Lper $1
+22.45%
P(YES) empiricalq
30.0%
Best pathmax
+308.2%
Worst pathmin
-100.0%
VaR 95%5%
100.0%
CVaR 95%ES
100.0%
median path25/75 + 5/95 bandsentry pricemodel q
Logit-space mean-reverting walk + terminal flip with probability q. Answers: 'what happens to THIS one position'. Distinct from the repeated-edge fan below.
§9b · Tail risk · Monte-Carlo (mode B · repeated independent edges)
Median CAGR/bet 0.11% · ruin rate 2.0%400 paths × 120 bets · f deploy 1.78%
Sharpe / betμ/σ
0.057
μ 0.18% · σ 3.2%
Sortino / betμ/σ↓
0.103
downside-only denominator
VaR 95%5%
-1.8%
per-bet worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
-1.8%
mean tail loss
Max drawdownMDD
-7.1%
Calmar 0.02
Ruin rate≤50%
2.0%
P(equity ever ≤ 50%)
median25/75 band5/95 bandruin line
Answers a different question: 'if I could find this exact edge forever, what is the bankroll trajectory'. Compounds 120 sequential resolutions which is NOT what happens to a single position.
§10 · Base-rate & macro context
ANCHORED · supported by convictionanchor gap -13.0pp · crowd gap -15.7pp
Anchor gapmodel − base
-13.0 pp
Crowd gapprice − base
-15.7 pp
Verdictdiscipline
ANCHORED
Reference-class anchoring prevents narrative-driven blowups.
§11 · Forecast quality (synthetic ledger)
SKILL POSITIVE · in-sample BSS 20.6% · AUC 0.770out-of-sample BSS (5-fold) 20.6% ± 2.5% · Brier 0.1985 · log-loss 0.5946 · n 1600✓ n = 1600
BrierBS
0.1985
lower = better · ō 0.51
BSSvs base
20.6%
improvement over base rate
ReliabilityREL
0.0053
miscalibration · want ↓
ResolutionRES
0.0572
decisiveness · want ↑
Log lossLL
0.5946
cross-entropy
AUCROC
0.770
0.5 coin · 1.0 oracle
calibration curveROCUNC (irreducible)RES (skill, ↑)REL (miscalib, ↓)
Computed on a seeded synthetic forecast ledger. Reseed (⟳) to redraw.
§12 · Journal vitals (synthetic ledger)
PROFITABLE · PF 1.03 · expectancy +0.017R180 trades · win 48.9% · Sharpe 0.014
Total P/Lnet
+$756
on $45,000 cycled
Win ratehit %
48.9%
88 W / 92 L
Profit factorPF
1.03
$ won / $ lost
Expectancyper trade
+$4.20
avg $ per position
R-expectancyper risk
+0.017R
in units of risk taken
Avg win / losspayoff
$269.95 / -$250.00
ratio 1.08 : 1
Sharpe / traderisk-adj
0.014
μR / σR
Closing line valueCLV
+2.82 pp
avg edge vs close
cumulative P/Lprofitable zonered zonesynthetic · seeded from asset
The scorecard every trader checks. Synthetic ledger seeded from the asset slug — recomputes against your real fill history once wired.