POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · IRAN CLOSES ITS AIRSPACE BY...?

Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?

YES · live
14.5¢
NO · live
85.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-july-31-20260609184136056 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
631.61%
max drawdown
68.97%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
47.90%
RMS drawdown
pain index
41.99%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
68.97%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.25
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.25
upside/downside
roll spread
22.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
944
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-july-31-20260609184136056/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH8ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
14.5¢
NO · live
85.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.2994 · σ=0.1301 · range [0.1350, 0.7250] · R²=0.076▼ FALLING -11.63%σ EXTREME 43.45%LAST 0.19000.72500.57750.43000.28250.1350μ = 0.2994max 0.7250min 0.1350dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.08μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 19.00¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 14.5%NO 85.5%NO85.5%85.50¢ · odds 1/1.17
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.597 / 1.00 bits (60%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
14.5%14.5¢6.90×▬ +0.00pp
NO
85.5%85.5¢1.17×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=13,850 · μ=577.1 · σ=864.3 · CV=1.50BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1907501,5002,2503,000μ = 5773,00050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 13850bp moved · peak 3000bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
8ms
▲YES mid
14.50¢ (14.50%)
▼NO mid
85.50¢ (85.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$37.5k
≋liquidity $
$12.5k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.2994 · σ=0.1301 · range [0.1350, 0.7250] · R²=0.076▼ FALLING -11.63%σ EXTREME 43.45%LAST 0.19000.72500.57750.43000.28250.1350μ = 0.2994max 0.7250min 0.1350dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.08μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 19.00¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.7006 · σ=0.1301 · range [0.2750, 0.8650] · R²=0.076▲ RISING +3.18%σ EXTREME 18.57%LAST 0.81000.86500.71750.57000.42250.2750μ = 0.7006max 0.8650min 0.2750dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.08μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 81.00¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0075 · σ=0.0961 · skew=-0.35 (symmetric) · kurt=2.67 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1296301-27.00ppbin -27.00pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin -27.00pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak-21.00pp1-15.00ppbin -15.00pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin -15.00pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak2-9.00ppbin -9.00pp · n=2 · 16.7% peakbin -9.00pp · n=2 · 16.7% peak4-3.00ppbin -3.00pp · n=4 · 33.3% peakbin -3.00pp · n=4 · 33.3% peak123.00ppbin 3.00pp · n=12 · 100.0% peakbin 3.00pp · n=12 · 100.0% peak39.00ppbin 9.00pp · n=3 · 25.0% peakbin 9.00pp · n=3 · 25.0% peak15.00pp21.00pp127.00ppbin 27.00pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin 27.00pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.16 · kurt=3.58 · near 10 / mid 14 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.92 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=2.10)
μ MEAN29.94¢95% CI: [24.84¢, 35.04¢]
σ STD DEV13.01ppσ² = 169.236 · CV = 43.45%
med MEDIAN27.00¢Q₁ 21.00¢ · Q₃ 39.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 59.00pp · IQR 18.50pp (1.349σ→17.55pp)
min 13.50¢Q₁ 21.00¢med 27.00¢Q₃ 39.50¢max 72.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.406right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.101leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.23
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.95
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.54
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.26 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.261within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.124lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.886strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+1.379fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.886
H = 0.886STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.261k=2+0.124k=3-0.166k=4+0.112k=5-0.0540+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.38)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.26 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.38)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2481464
SLUGwill-iran-close-…609184136056
CATEGORYIran closes its airspace by...?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (86¢)
PRIMARY · YES14.50¢implied prob 14.50% · decimal odds 6.90×
COUNTER · NO85.50¢implied prob 85.50% · decimal odds 1.17×
14.50¢
85.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME37.52k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY12.49k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (86¢)|primary − counter| = 0.710 · entropy 0.597 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 14.5%NO 85.5%YES p̂14.5%H = 0.597 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES6.90×(14¢)NO1.17×(86¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.597 bits (60% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-08-01 03:59 UTC
47days
03hrs
22min
47.14 days·θ = 63.731 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 14.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 85.5%)
current: $0.1450 · expected return per side: $0.85 on YES hit · $0.14 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+23.6dRESOLVESP projection · σ=13.01% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 63.731 pp/day
now47.14d left
63.731 pp/day×1.00
−25%35.36d left
73.590 pp/day×1.15
−50%23.57d left
90.129 pp/day×1.41
−75%11.79d left
127.462 pp/day×2.00
−90%4.71d left
201.536 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 30.00% · worst -30.00% · typical |Δ| 5.77%MILD BEARISH -2.50%BEST+30.00%18hWORST-30.00%19hTYPICAL |Δ|5.77%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.86% · Σ +6.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +2.50% · Σ +20.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -4.25% · Σ -34.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.50%+51.00%-8.00%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h-0.50% · 3h-0.50% · 3h-0.50%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h6.50% · 7h6.50% · 7h6.50%7h-0.50% · 8h-0.50% · 8h-0.50%8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h1.00% · 10h1.00% · 10h1.00%10h0.50% · 11h0.50% · 11h0.50%11h1.00% · 12h1.00% · 12h1.00%12h10.00% · 13h10.00% · 13h10.00%13h2.00% · 14h2.00% · 14h2.00%14h6.00% · 15h6.00% · 15h6.00%15h-4.50% · 16h-4.50% · 16h-4.50%16h-0.50% · 17h-0.50% · 17h-0.50%17h30.00% · 18h30.00% · 18h30.00%18h★ BEST-30.00% · 19h-30.00% · 19h-30.00%19h▼ WORST-9.00% · 20h-9.00% · 20h-9.00%20h-17.50% · 21h-17.50% · 21h-17.50%21h5.50% · 22h5.50% · 22h5.50%22h-8.00% · 23h-8.00% · 23h-8.00%23h5.50% · 24h5.50% · 24h5.50%24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+20.00%)RUNSup max 6 · down max 3BREADTH42% up · 33% down · 25% flat
10 up bars · 8 down · best 30.00% · worst -30.00% · typical |Δ| 5.771%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -14.54%FINAL-14.54%MAX DD-48.99%RECOVERYONGOING · 6 barsMAX RUN-UP+58.81%UNDERWATER14/25 (56%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.8546 · peak 1.5881 · range [0.8100, 1.5881]1.58810.8100break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.5881UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -48.99% · severe0%-48.99%▼ TROUGH -48.99%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -48.99%bar 20-25 · 6 bars · ONGOING#2 -4.98%bar 17-18 · 2 bars · recovered#3 -0.50%bar 4-7 · 4 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsevere (max -48.99%)RECOVERYongoing · 6 barsTIME UNDER WATER56% of session · 14/25 bars
final equity 0.8546 (-14.54%) · max DD -48.99% · time-under-water 14/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +13 / −6 (68% positive) · μ=21.50 · σ=39.07PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -61.04 (-2.11σ vs μ)84.1542.070.00-42.07-84.15μ = 21.50-38.21-38.2134.6434.6431.2431.2434.6434.6441.0841.0844.6244.6251.8451.8447.2447.2459.9459.9484.1584.1546.9946.9943.0243.0254.6854.682.432.43-6.36-6.36-24.31-24.31-16.21-16.21-21.86-21.86-61.04-61.04v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -61.038 · range [-61.04, 84.15] · μ 21.501 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=809.0214 · σ=724.1309 · range [19.1050, 1936.9089] · R²=0.753▲ RISING +6598.21%σ EXTREME 89.51%LAST 1279.69101936.90891457.4579978.0069498.555919.1050μ = 809.0214max 1936.9089min 19.1050dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.75μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 1279.69% · range [19.10%, 1936.91%] · μ 809.02% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.235 · σ=0.141MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.101 (+0.95σ vs μ)0.5080.2540.000-0.254-0.508μ = -0.235-0.233-0.233-0.014-0.014-0.266-0.266-0.281-0.281-0.329-0.329-0.380-0.380-0.173-0.1730.0250.025-0.071-0.071-0.205-0.205-0.308-0.308-0.153-0.153-0.107-0.107-0.508-0.508-0.352-0.352-0.276-0.276-0.323-0.323-0.412-0.412-0.101-0.101v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.101 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
22.7630
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.5898
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6123
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.9972
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2970
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.0547
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9564
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2492
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2708
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.6619
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5080
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.799 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.12e-2 · top T=2.18h (20.5%) · top-3 cover 42.9%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.8e-22.1e-21.4e-26.9e-30.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 8.36e-3 · 6.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 8.36e-3 · 6.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 8.43e-3 · 6.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 8.43e-3 · 6.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.04e-3 · 4.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.04e-3 · 4.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.54e-3 · 5.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.54e-3 · 5.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.02e-2 · 7.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.02e-2 · 7.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.01e-2 · 7.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.01e-2 · 7.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.06e-2 · 7.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.06e-2 · 7.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.07e-3 · 4.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.07e-3 · 4.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.50e-3 · 7.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.50e-3 · 7.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.28e-2 · 9.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.28e-2 · 9.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.76e-2 · 20.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.76e-2 · 20.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.73e-2 · 12.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.73e-2 · 12.9% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.18h#2T=2.00h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 20.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.345e-1

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (944 bars · effective 1753103 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 47.1 d · σ/bar 0.477pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 16.05ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1240 · n = 944✓ n = 944
μ per bar
-0.028pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.477pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
2.34pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move47d
16.05pp
σ × √1131.3796691666666
Terminal variancebinary
0.1240
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
14.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.81pp · ES₉₅ 1.01pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.028pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 944
VaR 95%
0.81pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
1.01pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
69.0pp
peak 43.5¢ → trough 13.5¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
14.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
6.897
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+590
$100 wins $590
FractionalUK
5.90 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$589.66
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 14.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.597 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.597 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
2.79 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.23 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
63150497379390197911067615315282049119328673837585882786568754047027445944908
NO token ID
84125408160235389074233430913822666019334151245806515262448686445246807565777
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-15 00:36:13 UTC
Snapshot age
8ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-15 00:36:13 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
51d174a52a2d8ce7bb85eb70b8a13751529d7fb31cf7ef7fc8837173c46778ab · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDDraw100.0¢HL PREDSpain91.3¢HL PREDUruguay65.8¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?85¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$65,569.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,722.05HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$64

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Iran closes its airspace by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.190000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1052.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.542
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.425
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-july-31-20260609184136056/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.3263537176.48bp0.48000012FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.60747921972.59bp0.90000035FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.71619727694.60bp0.99000041PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1250523418.31bp0.1100008FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0432747722.43bp0.01000018PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0432747722.43bp0.01000018PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 944 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
2850.15%
σ per bar = 0.021526
Mean return (annualised)
-193236.04%
μ per bar = -0.001102
Sharpe (rf=0)
-67.80
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
68.97%
peak 0.43 → trough 0.14 over 802 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-july-31-20260609184136056/risk · same metrics, JSON