POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · IRAN CLOSES ITS AIRSPACE BY...?

Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?

YES · live
15.0¢
NO · live
85.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-july-15-20260609184136055 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
734.34%
max drawdown
65.43%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
46.50%
RMS drawdown
pain index
39.82%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
65.43%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.15
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.15
upside/downside
roll spread
30.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
695
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-july-15-20260609184136055/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH11ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
15.0¢
NO · live
85.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.2558 · σ=0.1365 · range [0.1350, 0.6850] · R²=0.229▼ FALLING -6.25%σ EXTREME 53.36%LAST 0.15000.68500.54750.41000.27250.1350μ = 0.2558max 0.6850min 0.1350dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.23μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 15.00¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 15.0%NO 85.0%NO85.0%85.00¢ · odds 1/1.18
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.610 / 1.00 bits (61%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
15.0%15.0¢6.67×▬ +0.00pp
NO
85.0%85.0¢1.18×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=11,900 · μ=495.8 · σ=823.8 · CV=1.66BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1907251,4502,1752,900μ = 4962,90050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 11900bp moved · peak 2900bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
11ms
▲YES mid
15.00¢ (15.00%)
▼NO mid
85.00¢ (85.00%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$50.3k
≋liquidity $
$8.3k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.2558 · σ=0.1365 · range [0.1350, 0.6850] · R²=0.229▼ FALLING -6.25%σ EXTREME 53.36%LAST 0.15000.68500.54750.41000.27250.1350μ = 0.2558max 0.6850min 0.1350dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.23μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 15.00¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.7440 · σ=0.1365 · range [0.3150, 0.8650] · R²=0.229▲ RISING +1.19%σ EXTREME 18.35%LAST 0.85000.86500.72750.59000.45250.3150μ = 0.7440max 0.8650min 0.3150dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.23μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 85.00¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0056 · σ=0.0888 · skew=-0.98 (left-skewed) · kurt=3.65 (leptokurtic (fat tails))15118401-26.25ppbin -26.25pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin -26.25pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak1-20.75ppbin -20.75pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin -20.75pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak-15.25pp-9.75pp2-4.25ppbin -4.25pp · n=2 · 13.3% peakbin -4.25pp · n=2 · 13.3% peak151.25ppbin 1.25pp · n=15 · 100.0% peakbin 1.25pp · n=15 · 100.0% peak46.75ppbin 6.75pp · n=4 · 26.7% peakbin 6.75pp · n=4 · 26.7% peak12.25pp17.75pp123.25ppbin 23.25pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin 23.25pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.63 · kurt=3.85 · near 6 / mid 17 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.89 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.35)
μ MEAN25.58¢95% CI: [20.23¢, 30.93¢]
σ STD DEV13.65ppσ² = 186.327 · CV = 53.36%
med MEDIAN18.50¢Q₁ 15.50¢ · Q₃ 34.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 55.00pp · IQR 19.00pp (1.349σ→18.41pp)
min 13.50¢Q₁ 15.50¢med 18.50¢Q₃ 34.50¢max 68.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.351right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.425leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.52
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.97
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.03
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.192within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.170lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.775strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.613significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.775
H = 0.775STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.192k=2+0.170k=3-0.129k=4-0.031k=5+0.1080+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.61)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.74very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.61)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2481463
SLUGwill-iran-close-…609184136055
CATEGORYIran closes its airspace by...?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (85¢)
PRIMARY · YES15.00¢implied prob 15.00% · decimal odds 6.67×
COUNTER · NO85.00¢implied prob 85.00% · decimal odds 1.18×
15.00¢
85.00¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME50.28k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY8.30k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (85¢)|primary − counter| = 0.700 · entropy 0.610 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 15.0%NO 85.0%YES p̂15.0%H = 0.610 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES6.67×(15¢)NO1.18×(85¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.610 bits (61% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-07-16 03:59 UTC
31days
04hrs
42min
31.20 days·θ = 66.872 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 15.0%)
NO →$0.00(P = 85.0%)
current: $0.1500 · expected return per side: $0.85 on YES hit · $0.15 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+15.6dRESOLVESP projection · σ=13.65% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 66.872 pp/day
now31.20d left
66.872 pp/day×1.00
−25%23.40d left
77.217 pp/day×1.15
−50%15.60d left
94.571 pp/day×1.41
−75%7.80d left
133.744 pp/day×2.00
−90%3.12d left
211.467 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 26.00% · worst -29.00% · typical |Δ| 4.96%MILD BEARISH -1.00%BEST+26.00%19hWORST-29.00%20hTYPICAL |Δ|4.96%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.36% · Σ +2.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +2.31% · Σ +18.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ -2.75% · Σ -22.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.00%+52.50%-2.50%-0.50% · 1h-0.50% · 1h-0.50%1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h-1.00% · 4h-1.00% · 4h-1.00%4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h4.00% · 6h4.00% · 6h4.00%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h-0.50% · 8h-0.50% · 8h-0.50%8h-0.50% · 9h-0.50% · 9h-0.50%9h-0.50% · 10h-0.50% · 10h-0.50%10h7.50% · 11h7.50% · 11h7.50%11h0.50% · 12h0.50% · 12h0.50%12h0.50% · 13h0.50% · 13h0.50%13h9.00% · 14h9.00% · 14h9.00%14h2.50% · 15h2.50% · 15h2.50%15h6.50% · 16h6.50% · 16h6.50%16h-2.00% · 17h-2.00% · 17h-2.00%17h1.00% · 18h1.00% · 18h1.00%18h26.00% · 19h26.00% · 19h26.00%19h★ BEST-29.00% · 20h-29.00% · 20h-29.00%20h▼ WORST-6.50% · 21h-6.50% · 21h-6.50%21h-19.50% · 22h-19.50% · 22h-19.50%22h1.50% · 23h1.50% · 23h1.50%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+18.50%)RUNSup max 6 · down max 3BREADTH42% up · 38% down · 21% flat
10 up bars · 9 down · best 26.00% · worst -29.00% · typical |Δ| 4.958%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -11.80%FINAL-11.80%MAX DD-46.56%RECOVERYONGOING · 5 barsMAX RUN-UP+62.60%UNDERWATER15/25 (60%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.8820 · peak 1.6260 · range [0.8689, 1.6260]1.62600.8689break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.6260UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -46.56% · severe0%-46.56%▼ TROUGH -46.56%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -46.56%bar 21-25 · 5 bars · ONGOING#2 -2.00%bar 18-19 · 2 bars · recovered#3 -1.50%bar 2-6 · 5 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsevere (max -46.56%)RECOVERYongoing · 5 barsTIME UNDER WATER60% of session · 15/25 bars
final equity 0.8820 (-11.80%) · max DD -46.56% · time-under-water 15/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +15 / −4 (79% positive) · μ=31.49 · σ=36.70PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -22.51 (-1.47σ vs μ)111.1155.550.00-55.55-111.11μ = 31.4921.6621.6626.5826.5821.6621.6617.0017.0022.0022.0046.4746.4732.0032.0034.7634.7659.7259.7275.6375.63111.11111.1164.0064.0066.7266.7266.9266.924.414.41-3.48-3.48-24.70-24.70-21.63-21.63-22.51-22.51v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -22.511 · range [-24.70, 111.11] · μ 31.490 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=697.8472 · σ=660.0454 · range [164.7908, 1788.4745] · R²=0.756▲ RISING +958.41%σ EXTREME 94.58%LAST 1783.56971788.47451382.5536976.6326570.7117164.7908μ = 697.8472max 1788.4745min 164.7908dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.76μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 1783.57% · range [164.79%, 1788.47%] · μ 697.85% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.235 · σ=0.157MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.404 (-1.08σ vs μ)0.4970.2480.000-0.248-0.497μ = -0.2350.0150.015-0.113-0.113-0.088-0.088-0.061-0.061-0.059-0.059-0.063-0.063-0.143-0.143-0.178-0.178-0.264-0.264-0.497-0.497-0.397-0.397-0.349-0.349-0.322-0.322-0.117-0.117-0.481-0.481-0.348-0.348-0.269-0.269-0.323-0.323-0.404-0.404v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.404 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
27.6826
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.7315
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7438
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.7408
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4187
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-1.1713
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2415
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (8 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3860
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0832
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.2025
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8395
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.938 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=9.55e-3 · top T=2.40h (15.9%) · top-3 cover 40.8%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)1.8e-21.4e-29.1e-34.6e-30.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 24.0 · power 9.90e-3 · 8.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 9.90e-3 · 8.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.48e-3 · 8.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.48e-3 · 8.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.92e-3 · 4.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.92e-3 · 4.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.59e-3 · 7.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.59e-3 · 7.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.52e-3 · 5.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.52e-3 · 5.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.03e-2 · 9.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.03e-2 · 9.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.88e-3 · 2.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.88e-3 · 2.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.97e-3 · 1.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.97e-3 · 1.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.33e-2 · 11.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.33e-2 · 11.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.82e-2 · 15.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.82e-2 · 15.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.44e-2 · 12.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.44e-2 · 12.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.40e-2 · 12.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.40e-2 · 12.2% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=2.18h#3T=2.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 15.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.146e-1

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (695 bars · effective 1753103 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 31.2 d · σ/bar 0.555pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 15.18ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1275 · n = 695✓ n = 695
μ per bar
-0.037pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.555pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
2.72pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move31d
15.18pp
σ × √748.7070875
Terminal variancebinary
0.1275
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
15.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.95pp · ES₉₅ 1.18pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.037pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 3.00pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 695
VaR 95%
0.95pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
1.18pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
65.4pp
peak 40.5¢ → trough 14.0¢
Median step
3.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
15.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
6.667
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+567
$100 wins $567
FractionalUK
5.67 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$566.67
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 15.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.610 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.610 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
2.74 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.23 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
11684979467751025207103399528820232538997565744255347281258399610606202316552
NO token ID
79397523231108831190467254591803677479140129908827484470904938261456846995752
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 23:16:34 UTC
Snapshot age
11ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 23:16:34 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
53a5ac9b8614a773210aa4b50a15b364590b75e4279321d3b323df12a69209d4 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany100.0¢HL PREDDraw99.9¢HL PREDSpain91.2¢POLYMARKETWill Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?82¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$65,578HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,724.5HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$63.76

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Iran closes its airspace by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.150000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1333.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.526
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.640
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-july-15-20260609184136055/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.2599957333.00bp0.44000012FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.66132134088.07bp0.99000031FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.70679137119.38bp0.99000031PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1253981640.13bp0.0700006FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0366837554.44bp0.01000012PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0366837554.44bp0.01000012PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 695 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
2806.55%
σ per bar = 0.021197
Mean return (annualised)
-250903.79%
μ per bar = -0.001431
Sharpe (rf=0)
-89.40
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
65.43%
peak 0.41 → trough 0.14 over 443 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-july-15-20260609184136055/risk · same metrics, JSON