TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “prime · minister · kingdom” (18 markets)
Top terms: primeministerkingdomunitedpoliticsethiopia
- Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?0.2¢ YES · $1.76M 24h
- ★ Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?0.4¢ YES · $19.7k 24h
- Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?92.8¢ YES · $47.1k 24h
- Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?0.8¢ YES · $25.3k 24h
- Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?4.0¢ YES · $38.9k 24h
- Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?0.8¢ YES · $35.6k 24h
- Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?0.4¢ YES · $19.1k 24h
- Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?0.5¢ YES · $918.1k 24h
- Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?0.5¢ YES · $57.8k 24h
- Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?0.1¢ YES · $23.1k 24h
- Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?0.7¢ YES · $40.8k 24h
- Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?0.2¢ YES · $21.6k 24h
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?16.0¢ YES · $141.9k 24h
- Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?0.4¢ YES · $17.7k 24h
- Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?3.7¢ YES · $19.9k 24h
- Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?0.4¢ YES · $26.6k 24h
- Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?0.4¢ YES · $24.8k 24h
- Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?1.3¢ YES · $21.2k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3.830 | 168 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -2.760 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.344 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.015 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.013 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.195 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.170 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.119 | 168 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-al-carns-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-in-2026-126 · fresh · feed 5s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
6.03%
max drawdown
20.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
4.17%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.02%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
15.81%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.67
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.67
upside/downside
roll spread
2.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1085
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-al-carns-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-in-2026-126/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →