POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · POLITICS

Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?

YES · live
2.9¢
NO · live
97.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-no-next-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-be-appointed-in-2026 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
70.88%
max drawdown
25.32%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
14.60%
RMS drawdown
pain index
11.13%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
25.32%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.10
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.10
upside/downside
roll spread
1.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1048
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-no-next-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-be-appointed-in-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH261ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
2.9¢
NO · live
97.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0383 · σ=0.0096 · range [0.0255, 0.0580] · R²=0.560▼ FALLING -34.23%σ EXTREME 25.03%LAST 0.03650.05800.04990.04180.03360.0255μ = 0.0383max 0.0580min 0.0255dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.56μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 3.65¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 2.9%NO 97.0%NO97.0%97.05¢ · odds 1/1.03
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.192 / 1.00 bits (19%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
2.9%2.9¢33.90×▬ +0.00pp
NO
97.0%97.0¢1.03×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=800 · μ=33.3 · σ=41.9 · CV=1.26BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1204998146195μ = 3319550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 800bp moved · peak 195bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
261ms
▲YES mid
2.95¢ (2.95%)
▼NO mid
97.05¢ (97.05%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$19.5k
≋liquidity $
$48.6k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0383 · σ=0.0096 · range [0.0255, 0.0580] · R²=0.560▼ FALLING -34.23%σ EXTREME 25.03%LAST 0.03650.05800.04990.04180.03360.0255μ = 0.0383max 0.0580min 0.0255dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.56μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 3.65¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9617 · σ=0.0096 · range [0.9420, 0.9745] · R²=0.560▲ RISING +2.01%σ LOW 1.00%LAST 0.96350.97450.96640.95830.95010.9420μ = 0.9617max 0.9745min 0.9420dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.56μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 96.35¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0007 · σ=0.0050 · skew=-1.42 (left-skewed) · kurt=3.91 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1085301-1.81ppbin -1.81pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -1.81pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak-1.54pp-1.26pp-0.99pp1-0.71ppbin -0.71pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -0.71pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak2-0.44ppbin -0.44pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin -0.44pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak10-0.16ppbin -0.16pp · n=10 · 100.0% peakbin -0.16pp · n=10 · 100.0% peak50.11ppbin 0.11pp · n=5 · 50.0% peakbin 0.11pp · n=5 · 50.0% peak20.39ppbin 0.39pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin 0.39pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak30.66ppbin 0.66pp · n=3 · 30.0% peakbin 0.66pp · n=3 · 30.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-1.49 · kurt=4.68 · near 14 / mid 9 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.93 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-1.54σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.01)
μ MEAN3.83¢95% CI: [3.46¢, 4.21¢]
σ STD DEV0.96ppσ² = 0.920 · CV = 25.03%
med MEDIAN3.60¢Q₁ 3.25¢ · Q₃ 3.80¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 3.25pp · IQR 0.55pp (1.349σ→1.29pp)
min 2.55¢Q₁ 3.25¢med 3.60¢Q₃ 3.80¢max 5.80¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.015right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.364mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.24
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 2.35
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.39
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.095within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.182lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.951strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.407significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.951
H = 0.951STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.095k=2-0.182k=3+0.040k=4-0.176k=5+0.0770+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.41)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.41)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1343514
SLUGwill-no-next-pri…nted-in-2026
CATEGORYPolitics
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (97¢)
PRIMARY · YES2.95¢implied prob 2.95% · decimal odds 33.90×
COUNTER · NO97.05¢implied prob 97.05% · decimal odds 1.03×
2.95¢
97.05¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME19.46k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY48.63k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (97¢)|primary − counter| = 0.941 · entropy 0.192 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 2.9%NO 97.0%YES p̂2.9%H = 0.192 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES33.90×(3¢)NO1.03×(97¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.192 bits (19% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
193days
11hrs
44min
193.49 days·θ = 4.699 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 2.9%)
NO →$0.00(P = 97.0%)
current: $0.0295 · expected return per side: $0.97 on YES hit · $0.03 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+96.7dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.96% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 4.699 pp/day
now193.49d left
4.699 pp/day×1.00
−25%145.12d left
5.426 pp/day×1.15
−50%96.74d left
6.645 pp/day×1.41
−75%48.37d left
9.398 pp/day×2.00
−90%19.35d left
14.859 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.80% · worst -1.95% · typical |Δ| 0.33%BEARISH SESSION -1.90%BEST+0.80%19hWORST-1.95%5hTYPICAL |Δ|0.33%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.90%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.25% · Σ -1.75%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.55%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.30%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.90%+0.25%-3.00%0.25% · 1h0.25% · 1h0.25%1h-0.15% · 2h-0.15% · 2h-0.15%2h-0.20% · 3h-0.20% · 3h-0.20%3h0.10% · 4h0.10% · 4h0.10%4h-1.95% · 5h-1.95% · 5h-1.95%5h▼ WORST0.05% · 6h0.05% · 6h0.05%6h0.15% · 7h0.15% · 7h0.15%7h-0.25% · 8h-0.25% · 8h-0.25%8h-0.05% · 9h-0.05% · 9h-0.05%9h-0.05% · 10h-0.05% · 10h-0.05%10h-0.20% · 11h-0.20% · 11h-0.20%11h0.70% · 12h0.70% · 12h0.70%12h-0.30% · 13h-0.30% · 13h-0.30%13h-0.35% · 14h-0.35% · 14h-0.35%14h-0.05% · 15h-0.05% · 15h-0.05%15h-0.20% · 16h-0.20% · 16h-0.20%16h-0.50% · 17h-0.50% · 17h-0.50%17h0.30% · 18h0.30% · 18h0.30%18h0.80% · 19h0.80% · 19h0.80%19h★ BEST-0.05% · 20h-0.05% · 20h-0.05%20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h-0.65% · 22h-0.65% · 22h-0.65%22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.70% · 24h0.70% · 24h0.70%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+-0.30%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 5BREADTH33% up · 58% down · 8% flat
8 up bars · 14 down · best 0.80% · worst -1.95% · typical |Δ| 0.333%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.92%)FINAL-1.92%MAX DD-3.22%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.25%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9808 · peak 1.0025 · range [0.9702, 1.0025]1.00250.9702break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0025UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.22% · moderate0%-3.22%▼ TROUGH -3.22%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -3.22%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.22%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9808 (-1.92%) · max DD -3.22% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +5 / −13 (26% positive) · μ=-15.33 · σ=24.19UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 23.19 (+1.59σ vs μ)61.1830.590.00-30.59-61.18μ = -15.33-36.27-36.27-38.80-38.80-40.92-40.92-37.62-37.62-41.21-41.21-36.47-36.4713.4513.45-6.33-6.33-10.16-10.16-10.16-10.16-16.02-16.02-25.55-25.55-61.18-61.180.000.0010.4110.4112.2012.20-2.94-2.9413.1313.1323.1923.19v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 23.187 · range [-61.18, 23.19] · μ -15.328 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=47.6679 · σ=18.8247 · range [14.0132, 76.4772] · R²=0.227▼ FALLING -34.13%σ EXTREME 39.49%LAST 50.373476.477260.861245.245229.629214.0132μ = 47.6679max 76.4772min 14.0132dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.23μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 50.37% · range [14.01%, 76.48%] · μ 47.67% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.156 · σ=0.211MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.025 (+0.86σ vs μ)0.4620.2310.000-0.231-0.462μ = -0.156-0.335-0.335-0.326-0.326-0.325-0.325-0.326-0.326-0.085-0.085-0.179-0.179-0.211-0.211-0.462-0.462-0.309-0.309-0.306-0.306-0.293-0.293-0.105-0.105-0.388-0.3880.1900.1900.1360.1360.1140.1140.0480.0480.1670.1670.0250.025v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.025 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
47.6287
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.3887
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7952
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.0419
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2784
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.0862
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9313
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (11 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6327
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0197
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.8995
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3684
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.726 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.82e-5 · top T=3.00h (23.7%) · top-3 cover 55.8%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)8.0e-56.0e-54.0e-52.0e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.47e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.47e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.16e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.16e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.09e-5 · 9.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.09e-5 · 9.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.56e-5 · 16.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.56e-5 · 16.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.26e-8 · 0.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.26e-8 · 0.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.30e-5 · 15.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.30e-5 · 15.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.15e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.15e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.01e-5 · 23.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.01e-5 · 23.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.28e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.28e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.04e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.04e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.36e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.36e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.02e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.02e-5 · 6.0% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=6.00h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 23.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.381e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1048 bars · effective 1752713 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 193.5 d · σ/bar 0.054pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 3.65ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0286 · n = 1048✓ n = 1048
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.054pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.26pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move193d
3.65pp
σ × √4643.736101111111
Terminal variancebinary
0.0286
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
2.9¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.09pp · ES₉₅ 0.11pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 1048
VaR 95%
0.09pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.11pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
25.3pp
peak 4.0¢ → trough 2.9¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
2.9%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
33.898
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+3290
$100 wins $3290
FractionalUK
32.90 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$3289.83
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 2.9%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.192 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.192 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
5.08 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.04 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
95426686684404302248439048005191369928538888288122024636367341370179360280324
NO token ID
45836015573570323549554228502952142051853236026398681539966465536988180786478
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 12:15:49 UTC
Snapshot age
261ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 12:15:50 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
aa6e4576835a9323b2020680d7cb7b8f58e05b999ca90691067269e48af4b5c2 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?5¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,701HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$71.22HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,728.6

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Politics

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.036500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4109.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.205
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.249
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-no-next-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-be-appointed-in-2026/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.11035820234.94bp0.16000037FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.27814466203.82bp0.56000068FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.690080179062.92bp0.990000120FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0037638969.14bp0.00100019PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0037638969.14bp0.00100019PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0037638969.14bp0.00100019PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,048 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
2120.65%
σ per bar = 0.016018
Mean return (annualised)
17953.26%
μ per bar = 0.000102
Sharpe (rf=0)
8.47
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
25.32%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.03 over 669 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-no-next-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-be-appointed-in-2026/risk · same metrics, JSON