As of the latest market snapshot, the implied probability of "Yes" is 86.5%. This outcome resolves to Yes if Ecuador wins the Game.

HYPERLIQUID · HIP-3 PREDICTION MARKET · OUTCOME #442

Ecuador

Primary · Yes

86.5¢

Counter · No

13.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · pred-ecuador-442 · fresh · feed 6s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

27.48%

max drawdown

0.59%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

0.24%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.18%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

0.49%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.01

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.01

upside/downside

roll spread

0.1 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

2000

store

spread

—

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-pred-ecuador-442/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →

LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH6.1s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

Yes mid · live

86.5¢

No mid · live

13.5¢

Yes · live 24h price

24 bars · close 86.97¢ · 24h -0.14%

Probability split · live

Σ 100.00% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.570 / 1.00 bits (57%) · moderate uncertainty

Yes

86.5%86.5¢1.16×▬ +0.00pp

13.5%13.5¢7.42×▬ +0.00pp

primary vs counter implied %

Volume · per-hour contracts · live

Σ 130824 · peak 49144

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

6.1s

▲Yes mid

86.529¢

▼No mid

13.470¢

ΣΣ sides

100.00%

Σarb gap |1 − Σ|

0.00pp

Δ24h candles

24 bars

Δ24h close

86.97¢

Δ24h change

-0.14%

§1 · 24h time-series

Mid price · Yes (24 hourly observations)

range [86.57¢, 88.46¢] · span 1.89pp · MA(5) latest 86.91¢

Candlestick · open / high / low / close per hour

24 bars · last close 86.97¢

Hourly traded contracts

Σ vol = 130824 · peak 49144 · mean 5451.0

§2 · Distribution of one-bar increments Δp = pₜ − pₜ₋₁

Histogram of Δp

n=23 · positive 6 · negative 7

Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)

reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics

SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=24RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.52)

μ MEAN87.45¢95% CI: [87.22¢, 87.68¢]

σ STD DEV0.58ppσ² = 0.334 · CV = 0.66%

med MEDIAN87.17¢Q₁ 87.08¢ · Q₃ 87.73¢

FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.89pp · IQR 0.65pp (1.349σ→0.78pp)

SKEWNESS · G₁0.523right-skewed

−3−10+1+3

EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.886mesokurtic · normal-like

−30+2+4+6

μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.47

σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.20

range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.28

μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation · skew (G₁): >0 right-tail · kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI uses 1.96·SE around μ. σ × 1.349 ≈ IQR under normality.

§6 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics

TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE

ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.084within white-noise band

ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.068lag-2 not significant

H · HURST EXPONENT0.635persistent

OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.987significant @ α=0.05

HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.635

H = 0.635PERSISTENT

0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending

AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags

OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=1.99)

−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject

REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis

PREDICTABILITY · score 0.35high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic

TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=1.99)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58

ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§7 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity

MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%

OUTCOME ID#442

SLUGecuador-442

QUOTE TOKENUSDC

TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (87¢)

PRIMARY · YES86.53¢implied prob 86.53% · decimal odds 1.16×

COUNTER · NO13.47¢implied prob 13.47% · decimal odds 7.42×

86.53¢

13.47¢

Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%

0%50%100% · target110%

Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp

24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP

24H VOLUME130.82k contracts

MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient

PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (87¢)|primary − counter| = 0.731 · entropy 0.570 bits

LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin

Σ-sides = primary + counter implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§8 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Yes vs No · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage

FAIR MARKET · no edge

Probability scale (Yes)

0%25%50%
fair75%100%

Implied decimal odds

Yes1.16×(87¢)No7.42×(13¢)

Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%

K* full

0.00%

½K half

0.00%

¼K quarter

0.00%

Entropy H(p̂) = 0.570 bits (57% of max) · moderate uncertainty

0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)

Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding

K* full = (b·p − q)/b where b = (1−p̂)/p̂ are the net odds implied by p̂. ½K and ¼K are industry-standard conservative fractions.

§9 · Resolution criteria

This outcome resolves to Yes if Ecuador wins the Game.

§10 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down

6 up bars · 7 down · best 1.37% · worst -0.75% · typical |Δ| 0.216%

§11 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough

final equity 0.9986 (-0.14%) · max DD -1.89% · time-under-water 15/24 bars

§12 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 5 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative

latest -11.374 · range [-62.19, 41.86] · μ -12.020 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window

Rolling annualised volatility (%)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC

-0.3126

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.7546

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§14 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n

dominant period ≈ 2.56h (freq 0.391) · concentrates 35.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.854e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4506 bars · effective 5254346 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§15 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§16 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 7.0 d · σ/bar 0.459pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 5.95ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1166 · n = 4506✓ n = 4506

μ per bar

+0.008pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.459pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

2.25pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move7d

5.95pp

σ × √168

Terminal variancebinary

0.1166

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

86.5¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§17 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.75pp · ES₉₅ 0.94pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.008pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.00pp · unique ratio 0.04✓ n = 4506

VaR 95%

0.75pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.94pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

10.0pp

peak 88.0¢ → trough 79.2¢

Median step

0.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§18 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

86.5%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

1.156

total return per $1

AmericanUS

-642

risk $642 to win $100

FractionalUK

0.16 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$15.57

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§19 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.570 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.570 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

0.21 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

2.89 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§20 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: https://hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-20 11:42:03 UTC
Snapshot age: 6.1s
Page rendered: 2026-06-20 11:42:10 UTC
History points: 24 closes · 24 counter-side closes
Storage policy: no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation: 6f4a6d9e2887dc42a9103031344835225832c851a87c0d6700c024398451a6b8 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢HL PREDUruguay67.6¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?6¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,686 HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.84 HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,727.1

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,506 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M

Realized vol (annualised)

1501.86%

σ per bar = 0.006552

Mean return (annualised)

63969.17%

μ per bar = 0.000122

Sharpe (rf=0)

42.59

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

9.99%

peak 0.88 → trough 0.79 over 30 bars

/api/asset/hl-pred-ecuador-442/risk · same metrics, JSON