HYPERLIQUID · HIP-3 PREDICTION MARKET · OUTCOME #458
Uruguay
74.0¢
26.0¢
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
hyperliquid · pred-uruguay-458 · fresh · feed 1s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
1491.66%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
7.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
967
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/hl-pred-uruguay-458/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
Yes mid · live
74.0¢
No mid · live
26.0¢
no history
1 bars · close 90.00¢ · 24h +0.00%
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.827 / 1.00 bits (83%) · high uncertainty
Yes74.0%74.0¢1.35×▬ +0.00pp
No26.0%26.0¢3.85×▬ +0.00pp
primary vs counter implied %
Σ 53 · peak 53
603ms
74.000¢
26.000¢
100.00%
0.00pp
1 bars
90.00¢
+0.00%
§1 · 24h time-series
no series
range [90.00¢, 90.00¢] · span 0.00pp · MA(5) latest n/a
1 bars · last close 90.00¢
Σ vol = 53 · peak 53 · mean 53.0
§2 · Distribution of one-bar increments Δp = pₜ − pₜ₋₁
insufficient data — no histogram bins
n=0 · positive 0 · negative 0
§3 · Sample moments (prices)
§6 · Time-series structure
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]
H = 0.500RANDOM-WALK
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.
§7 · Microstructure
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
TWO-SIDED PRICING
74.00¢
26.00¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TEST
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITY
Σ-sides = primary + counter implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.
§8 · Position sizing & edge analysis
FAIR MARKET · no edge
Probability scale (Yes)
Implied decimal odds
Yes1.35×(74¢)No3.85×(26¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.827 bits (83% of max) · high uncertainty
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b where b = (1−p̂)/p̂ are the net odds implied by p̂. ½K and ¼K are industry-standard conservative fractions.
§9 · Resolution criteria
This outcome resolves to Yes if Uruguay wins the Game.
▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (967 bars · effective 5247356 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.
§15 · Honest position analytics
A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →
§16 · Horizon returns
Horizon 7.0 d · σ/bar 0.651pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 8.44ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1924 · n = 967✓ n = 967
μ per bar
+0.025pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.651pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
3.19pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move7d
8.44pp
σ × √168
Terminal variancebinary
0.1924
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
74.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.
§17 · Tail risk
VaR₉₅ 1.05pp · ES₉₅ 1.32pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.025pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 3.00pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 967
VaR 95%
1.05pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
1.32pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
0.0pp
peak 50.0¢ → trough 50.0¢
Median step
3.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.
§18 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
74.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.351
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-285
risk $285 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.35 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$35.14
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.
§19 · Binary entropy
Market entropyH(p)
0.827 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.827 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.43 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
1.94 bit
self-information
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.
§20 · Model-dependent surfaces
External model required
The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.
The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.
To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.
§∞ · Provenance & attestation
- Upstream
- https://hyperliquid.xyz
- Snapshot fetched
- 2026-06-18 14:01:00 UTC
- Snapshot age
- 603ms
- Page rendered
- 2026-06-18 14:01:01 UTC
- History points
- 1 closes · 1 counter-side closes
- Storage policy
- no persistence — fetched on every request
- SHA-256 attestation
c1db785384c68652803363c1705c4aaf22eee0fcca69e164d4f4db7f2e378256· deterministic hash of source snapshot- Open data licence
- CC0 / public domain
§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more
HL PREDSpain91.6¢HL PREDBrazil88.1¢HL PREDEcuador87.1¢POLYMARKETWill Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2¢POLYMARKETWill Czechia win on 2026-06-18?54¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,932HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.36HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,736
Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed
Risk metrics
▸ sovereign store · 967 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25MRealized vol (annualised)
2400.01%
σ per bar = 0.010477
Mean return (annualised)
212959.05%
μ per bar = 0.000406
Sharpe (rf=0)
88.73
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
0.00%
peak 0.50 → trough 0.50 over 0 bars
/api/asset/hl-pred-uruguay-458/risk · same metrics, JSON