POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · POLITICS

Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

YES · live
0.6¢
NO · live
99.4¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-rupert-lowe-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-in-2026-515 · fresh · feed 11s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -14.29%
realized vol (ann.)
6.94%
max drawdown
25.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
8.46%
RMS drawdown
pain index
4.27%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
25.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-14.29%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change -14.29%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-rupert-lowe-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-in-2026-515/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING10.7s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.6¢
NO · live
99.4¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0061 · σ=0.0010 · range [0.0045, 0.0100] · R²=0.016▼ FALLING -40.00%σ EXTREME 17.23%LAST 0.00600.01000.00860.00720.00590.0045μ = 0.0061max 0.0100min 0.0045dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 0.60¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.6%NO 99.4%NO99.4%99.40¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.053 / 1.00 bits (5%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.6%0.6¢166.67×▬ +0.00pp
NO
99.4%99.4¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=160 · μ=6.7 · σ=12.3 · CV=1.85BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=3014284155μ = 75550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 160bp moved · peak 55bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
10.7s
▲YES mid
0.60¢ (0.60%)
▼NO mid
99.40¢ (99.40%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$30.0k
≋liquidity $
$43.1k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0061 · σ=0.0010 · range [0.0045, 0.0100] · R²=0.016▼ FALLING -40.00%σ EXTREME 17.23%LAST 0.00600.01000.00860.00720.00590.0045μ = 0.0061max 0.0100min 0.0045dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.60¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9939 · σ=0.0010 · range [0.9900, 0.9955] · R²=0.016▲ RISING +0.40%σ LOW 0.11%LAST 0.99400.99550.99410.99280.99140.9900μ = 0.9939max 0.9955min 0.9900dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.40¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0001 · σ=0.0013 · skew=-2.24 (left-skewed) · kurt=6.76 (leptokurtic (fat tails))14117401-0.51ppbin -0.51pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin -0.51pp · n=1 · 7.1% peak-0.44pp-0.36pp-0.29pp1-0.21ppbin -0.21pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin -0.21pp · n=1 · 7.1% peak-0.14pp4-0.06ppbin -0.06pp · n=4 · 28.6% peakbin -0.06pp · n=4 · 28.6% peak140.01ppbin 0.01pp · n=14 · 100.0% peakbin 0.01pp · n=14 · 100.0% peak10.09ppbin 0.09pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin 0.09pp · n=1 · 7.1% peak30.16ppbin 0.16pp · n=3 · 21.4% peakbin 0.16pp · n=3 · 21.4% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-2.24 · kurt=7.27 · near 9 / mid 14 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.84 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-1.87σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=5.75)
μ MEAN0.61¢95% CI: [0.57¢, 0.65¢]
σ STD DEV0.10ppσ² = 0.011 · CV = 17.23%
med MEDIAN0.60¢Q₁ 0.60¢ · Q₃ 0.60¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.55pp · IQR 0.00pp (1.349σ→0.14pp)
min 0.45¢Q₁ 0.60¢med 0.60¢Q₃ 0.60¢max 1.00¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.904right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂5.753leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.06
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.00
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 5.27
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.29 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.285within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.209lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.086strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.603fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.086
H = 1.086STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.285k=2-0.209k=3+0.234k=4-0.088k=5+0.0730+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.60)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.29 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.60)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1343466
SLUGwill-rupert-lowe…-in-2026-515
CATEGORYPolitics
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (99¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.60¢implied prob 0.60% · decimal odds 166.67×
COUNTER · NO99.40¢implied prob 99.40% · decimal odds 1.01×
0.60¢
99.40¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME29.95k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY43.07k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (99¢)|primary − counter| = 0.988 · entropy 0.053 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.6%NO 99.4%YES p̂0.6%H = 0.053 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES166.67×(1¢)NO1.01×(99¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.053 bits (5% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
195days
11hrs
41min
195.49 days·θ = 0.511 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 0.6%)
NO →$0.00(P = 99.4%)
current: $0.0060 · expected return per side: $0.99 on YES hit · $0.01 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+97.7dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.10% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 0.511 pp/day
now195.49d left
0.511 pp/day×1.00
−25%146.62d left
0.591 pp/day×1.15
−50%97.74d left
0.723 pp/day×1.41
−75%48.87d left
1.023 pp/day×2.00
−90%19.55d left
1.617 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.20% · worst -0.55% · typical |Δ| 0.07%MILD BEARISH -0.40%BEST+0.20%2hWORST-0.55%1hTYPICAL |Δ|0.07%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.40%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.08% · Σ -0.55%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.02% · Σ +0.15%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.40%+0.00%-0.55%-0.55% · 1h-0.55% · 1h-0.55%1h▼ WORST0.20% · 2h0.20% · 2h0.20%2h★ BEST0.10% · 3h0.10% · 3h0.10%3h-0.20% · 4h-0.20% · 4h-0.20%4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h-0.05% · 6h-0.05% · 6h-0.05%6h-0.05% · 7h-0.05% · 7h-0.05%7h0.15% · 8h0.15% · 8h0.15%8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h-0.10% · 18h-0.10% · 18h-0.10%18h0.15% · 19h0.15% · 19h0.15%19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h-0.05% · 22h-0.05% · 22h-0.05%22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.15%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH17% up · 25% down · 58% flat
4 up bars · 6 down · best 0.20% · worst -0.55% · typical |Δ| 0.067%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.40%)FINAL-0.40%MAX DD-0.55%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9960 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9945, 1.0000]1.00000.9945break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.55% · shallow0%-0.55%▼ TROUGH -0.55%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -0.55%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.55%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9960 (-0.40%) · max DD -0.55% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −4 (42% positive) · μ=2.09 · σ=17.82MIXED EDGELAST 22.83 (+1.16σ vs μ)38.2119.100.00-19.10-38.21μ = 2.09-29.34-29.340.000.00-6.28-6.28-20.72-20.7210.6010.6010.6010.6022.8322.8338.2138.210.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00-38.21-38.219.749.749.749.749.749.740.000.000.000.0022.8322.83v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 22.835 · range [-38.21, 38.21] · μ 2.091 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=7.0653 · σ=5.7694 · range [0.0000, 24.8805] · R²=0.207▼ FALLING -74.30%σ EXTREME 81.66%LAST 6.393724.880518.660412.44036.22010.0000μ = 7.0653max 24.8805min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.21μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 6.39% · range [0.00%, 24.88%] · μ 7.07% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −13 (11% positive) · μ=-0.204 · σ=0.204MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.024 (+1.11σ vs μ)0.4830.2410.000-0.241-0.483μ = -0.204-0.307-0.3070.0260.026-0.358-0.358-0.069-0.069-0.203-0.203-0.218-0.218-0.440-0.440-0.033-0.0330.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000-0.033-0.033-0.444-0.444-0.483-0.483-0.483-0.483-0.429-0.429-0.429-0.4290.0240.024v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.024 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
110.3559
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.4946
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3586
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀***

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-9.1881
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.8429
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3993
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (7 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1543
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4366
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.6684
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0076
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.188 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.88e-6 · top T=2.67h (19.3%) · top-3 cover 50.3%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)4.4e-63.3e-62.2e-61.1e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 9.32e-7 · 4.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 9.32e-7 · 4.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 8.13e-7 · 3.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 8.13e-7 · 3.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.65e-7 · 1.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.65e-7 · 1.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.22e-6 · 5.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.22e-6 · 5.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.23e-6 · 5.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.23e-6 · 5.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.35e-6 · 10.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.35e-6 · 10.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.51e-6 · 15.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.51e-6 · 15.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.51e-6 · 15.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.51e-6 · 15.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.36e-6 · 19.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.36e-6 · 19.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.83e-6 · 12.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.83e-6 · 12.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.21e-6 · 5.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.21e-6 · 5.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.75e-7 · 1.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.75e-7 · 1.7% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.67h#2T=3.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 19.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.260e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4494 bars · effective 1752421 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 195.5 d · σ/bar 0.008pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.52ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0060 · n = 4494✓ n = 4494
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.008pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.04pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move195d
0.52pp
σ × √4691.690311388888
Terminal variancebinary
0.0060
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.6¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.02pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 4494
VaR 95%
0.01pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.02pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
50.0pp
peak 0.7¢ → trough 0.4¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.6%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
166.667
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+16567
$100 wins $16567
FractionalUK
165.67 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$16566.67
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.6%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.053 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.053 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
7.38 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.01 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
34852222400307578353459774008974959488858949230930617713163244633567605491999
NO token ID
86426272652973469273086741634406119999881067283540452551560028266652481248195
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 12:18:24 UTC
Snapshot age
10.7s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 12:18:34 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
eaf2bda8968255021d094895f92303a626f1b3c0aeb71dd8bffa7cdf3aba683c · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDBrazil88.2¢HL PREDCanada75.9¢HL PREDSwitzerland62.9¢POLYMARKETWill Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2¢POLYMARKETWill Czechia win on 2026-06-18?53¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,026HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.86HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,745.4

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Politics

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.006000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6666.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.175
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.983
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-rupert-lowe-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-in-2026-515/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.04664667743.42bp0.09300039FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.220509357514.68bp0.69000078FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.7085041170840.64bp0.980000100FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0011568073.16bp0.0010004PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0011568073.16bp0.0010004PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0011568073.16bp0.0010004PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,494 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1825.95%
σ per bar = 0.013793
Mean return (annualised)
-6012.40%
μ per bar = -0.000034
Sharpe (rf=0)
-3.29
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
50.00%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.00 over 116 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-rupert-lowe-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-in-2026-515/risk · same metrics, JSON