POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · POLITICS

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

YES · live
15.5¢
NO · live
84.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-naftali-bennett-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -6.06%
realized vol (ann.)
181.89%
max drawdown
12.90%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
6.93%
RMS drawdown
pain index
5.45%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
12.90%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.08
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.08
upside/downside
roll spread
1.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-6.06%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change -6.06%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-naftali-bennett-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
15.5¢
NO · live
84.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.1424 · σ=0.0166 · range [0.1150, 0.1650] · R²=0.009▼ FALLING -6.06%σ HIGH 11.65%LAST 0.15500.16500.15250.14000.12750.1150μ = 0.1424max 0.1650min 0.1150dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 15.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 15.5%NO 84.5%NO84.5%84.50¢ · odds 1/1.18
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.622 / 1.00 bits (62%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
15.5%15.5¢6.45×▬ +0.00pp
NO
84.5%84.5¢1.18×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=1,800 · μ=75.0 · σ=94.4 · CV=1.26BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=13087175262350μ = 7535050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 1800bp moved · peak 350bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.3s
▲YES mid
15.50¢ (15.50%)
▼NO mid
84.50¢ (84.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$115.2k
≋liquidity $
$56.0k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1424 · σ=0.0166 · range [0.1150, 0.1650] · R²=0.009▼ FALLING -6.06%σ HIGH 11.65%LAST 0.15500.16500.15250.14000.12750.1150μ = 0.1424max 0.1650min 0.1150dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 15.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8576 · σ=0.0166 · range [0.8350, 0.8850] · R²=0.009▲ RISING +1.20%σ NORMAL 1.93%LAST 0.84500.88500.87250.86000.84750.8350μ = 0.8576max 0.8850min 0.8350dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 84.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0008 · σ=0.0114 · skew=0.46 (symmetric) · kurt=1.53 (leptokurtic (fat tails))975201-2.67ppbin -2.67pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -2.67pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak1-2.02ppbin -2.02pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -2.02pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak-1.38pp7-0.73ppbin -0.73pp · n=7 · 77.8% peakbin -0.73pp · n=7 · 77.8% peak9-0.08ppbin -0.08pp · n=9 · 100.0% peakbin -0.08pp · n=9 · 100.0% peak10.57ppbin 0.57pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 0.57pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak41.22ppbin 1.22pp · n=4 · 44.4% peakbin 1.22pp · n=4 · 44.4% peak1.87pp2.52pp13.17ppbin 3.17pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 3.17pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.40 · kurt=2.41 · near 15 / mid 9 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.96 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.23)
μ MEAN14.24¢95% CI: [13.59¢, 14.89¢]
σ STD DEV1.66ppσ² = 2.753 · CV = 11.65%
med MEDIAN14.00¢Q₁ 13.50¢ · Q₃ 15.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 5.00pp · IQR 2.00pp (1.349σ→2.24pp)
min 11.50¢Q₁ 13.50¢med 14.00¢Q₃ 15.50¢max 16.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.157approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.231platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.14
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.12
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.01
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.33 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.326within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.226lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.094strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.469fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.094
H = 1.094STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.326k=2+0.226k=3-0.046k=4-0.105k=5+0.2950+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.47)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.33 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.47)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID682706
SLUGwill-naftali-ben…er-of-israel
CATEGORYPolitics
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (85¢)
PRIMARY · YES15.50¢implied prob 15.50% · decimal odds 6.45×
COUNTER · NO84.50¢implied prob 84.50% · decimal odds 1.18×
15.50¢
84.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME115.21k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY55.95k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (85¢)|primary − counter| = 0.690 · entropy 0.622 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 15.5%NO 84.5%YES p̂15.5%H = 0.622 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES6.45×(16¢)NO1.18×(85¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.622 bits (62% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
195days
14hrs
04min
195.59 days·θ = 8.128 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 15.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 84.5%)
current: $0.1550 · expected return per side: $0.84 on YES hit · $0.15 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+97.8dRESOLVESP projection · σ=1.66% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 8.128 pp/day
now195.59d left
8.128 pp/day×1.00
−25%146.69d left
9.385 pp/day×1.15
−50%97.79d left
11.494 pp/day×1.41
−75%48.90d left
16.255 pp/day×2.00
−90%19.56d left
25.702 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.50% · worst -3.00% · typical |Δ| 0.75%BEARISH SESSION -1.00%BEST+3.50%13hWORST-3.00%5hTYPICAL |Δ|0.75%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.71% · Σ -5.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.31% · Σ +2.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.06% · Σ +0.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.00%+0.00%-5.00%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h-3.00% · 5h-3.00% · 5h-3.00%5h▼ WORST0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h-2.00% · 7h-2.00% · 7h-2.00%7h1.00% · 8h1.00% · 8h1.00%8h-0.50% · 9h-0.50% · 9h-0.50%9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h-0.50% · 12h-0.50% · 12h-0.50%12h3.50% · 13h3.50% · 13h3.50%13h★ BEST-1.00% · 14h-1.00% · 14h-1.00%14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h-0.50% · 17h-0.50% · 17h-0.50%17h1.50% · 18h1.50% · 18h1.50%18h-1.00% · 19h-1.00% · 19h-1.00%19h1.00% · 20h1.00% · 20h1.00%20h0.50% · 21h0.50% · 21h0.50%21h-0.50% · 22h-0.50% · 22h-0.50%22h-0.50% · 23h-0.50% · 23h-0.50%23h1.00% · 24h1.00% · 24h1.00%24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+2.50%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH25% up · 38% down · 38% flat
6 up bars · 9 down · best 3.50% · worst -3.00% · typical |Δ| 0.750%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.16%)FINAL-1.16%MAX DD-4.95%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9884 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9505, 1.0000]1.00000.9505break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.95% · moderate0%-4.95%▼ TROUGH -4.95%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -4.95%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.95%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 0.9884 (-1.16%) · max DD -4.95% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +11 / −8 (58% positive) · μ=-4.58 · σ=31.29MIXED EDGELAST 9.06 (+0.44σ vs μ)58.6829.340.00-29.34-58.68μ = -4.58-38.21-38.21-58.68-58.68-41.44-41.44-47.60-47.60-47.60-47.60-23.70-23.70-31.73-31.7335.6835.6814.3114.3119.4719.4719.4719.4714.3114.3132.9732.97-16.76-16.7616.7616.7625.0125.0115.8715.8715.8715.879.069.06v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 9.057 · range [-58.68, 35.68] · μ -4.576 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=119.5346 · σ=28.6269 · range [80.6040, 154.9742] · R²=0.195▼ FALLING -29.68%σ EXTREME 23.95%LAST 80.6040154.9742136.3816117.789199.196580.6040μ = 119.5346max 154.9742min 80.6040dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.20μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 80.60% · range [80.60%, 154.97%] · μ 119.53% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.462 · σ=0.159MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.283 (+1.13σ vs μ)0.7560.3780.000-0.378-0.756μ = -0.462-0.233-0.233-0.362-0.362-0.510-0.510-0.557-0.557-0.385-0.385-0.603-0.603-0.506-0.506-0.171-0.171-0.453-0.453-0.470-0.470-0.470-0.470-0.444-0.444-0.271-0.271-0.487-0.487-0.756-0.756-0.700-0.700-0.695-0.695-0.420-0.420-0.283-0.283v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.283 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
11.5709
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0031
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.6045
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1782
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.0609
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2705
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.0080
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3134
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1926
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3697
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.7662
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4436
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.767 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.48e-4 · top T=2.40h (31.9%) · top-3 cover 51.4%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)5.7e-44.2e-42.8e-41.4e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.42e-4 · 8.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.42e-4 · 8.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.26e-4 · 7.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.26e-4 · 7.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.31e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.31e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.12e-4 · 6.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.12e-4 · 6.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.05e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.05e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.71e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.71e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.85e-5 · 5.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.85e-5 · 5.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.92e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.92e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.13e-4 · 6.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.13e-4 · 6.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.66e-4 · 31.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.66e-4 · 31.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.96e-4 · 11.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.96e-4 · 11.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.50e-4 · 8.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.50e-4 · 8.5% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=2.18h#3T=2.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 31.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.773e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 1752421 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 195.6 d · σ/bar 0.143pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 9.76ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1310 · n = 5000✓ n = 5000
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.143pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.70pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move196d
9.76pp
σ × √4694.077511944444
Terminal variancebinary
0.1310
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
15.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.23pp · ES₉₅ 0.29pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 5000
VaR 95%
0.23pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.29pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
36.4pp
peak 16.5¢ → trough 10.5¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
15.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
6.452
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+545
$100 wins $545
FractionalUK
5.45 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$545.16
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 15.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.622 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.622 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
2.69 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.24 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
58945936829392654397399777214757608864525173988558750256164021442231118224154
NO token ID
39409206330527880169507414405291721950884951005340760541937649898052386499519
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 09:55:17 UTC
Snapshot age
3.3s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 09:55:20 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
4c6fc7921cdf060c00679adec93aebffb8e2cef2a638a9b5b9c4a4844b9ef3f3 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDBrazil88.3¢HL PREDCanada76.0¢HL PREDSwitzerland62.5¢POLYMARKETWill Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2¢POLYMARKETWill Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,217HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$71.95HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,747.3

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Politics

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.150000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1333.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.815
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.495
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-naftali-bennett-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1797121980.78bp0.2000005FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.2772858485.69bp0.45000028FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.68038835359.19bp0.95000062FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.140000666.67bp0.1400001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0986843421.06bp0.01000013PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0986843421.06bp0.01000013PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1354.87%
σ per bar = 0.010235
Mean return (annualised)
2337.90%
μ per bar = 0.000013
Sharpe (rf=0)
1.73
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
36.36%
peak 0.17 → trough 0.10 over 1099 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-naftali-bennett-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel/risk · same metrics, JSON