POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · POLITICS

Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

YES · live
3.9¢
NO · live
96.1¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-avigdor-lieberman-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel · fresh · feed 15s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
8.83%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
1.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
506
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-avigdor-lieberman-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING15.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
3.9¢
NO · live
96.1¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0416 · σ=0.0032 · range [0.0375, 0.0475] · R²=0.829▼ FALLING -14.29%σ HIGH 7.76%LAST 0.03900.04750.04500.04250.04000.0375μ = 0.0416max 0.0475min 0.0375dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.83μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 3.90¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 3.9%NO 96.1%NO96.1%96.10¢ · odds 1/1.04
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.238 / 1.00 bits (24%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
3.9%3.9¢25.64×▬ +0.00pp
NO
96.1%96.1¢1.04×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=225 · μ=9.4 · σ=9.4 · CV=1.00BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1108152330μ = 93050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 225bp moved · peak 30bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
15.1s
▲YES mid
3.90¢ (3.90%)
▼NO mid
96.10¢ (96.10%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$70.1k
≋liquidity $
$64.1k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0416 · σ=0.0032 · range [0.0375, 0.0475] · R²=0.829▼ FALLING -14.29%σ HIGH 7.76%LAST 0.03900.04750.04500.04250.04000.0375μ = 0.0416max 0.0475min 0.0375dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.83μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 3.90¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9584 · σ=0.0032 · range [0.9525, 0.9625] · R²=0.829▲ RISING +0.68%σ LOW 0.34%LAST 0.96100.96250.96000.95750.95500.9525μ = 0.9584max 0.9625min 0.9525dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.83μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 96.10¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0001 · σ=0.0012 · skew=-0.69 (left-skewed) · kurt=-0.24 (mesokurtic)864202-0.28ppbin -0.28pp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin -0.28pp · n=2 · 25.0% peak-0.23pp1-0.18ppbin -0.18pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -0.18pp · n=1 · 12.5% peak3-0.13ppbin -0.13pp · n=3 · 37.5% peakbin -0.13pp · n=3 · 37.5% peak2-0.08ppbin -0.08pp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin -0.08pp · n=2 · 25.0% peak-0.03pp80.03ppbin 0.03pp · n=8 · 100.0% peakbin 0.03pp · n=8 · 100.0% peak40.08ppbin 0.08pp · n=4 · 50.0% peakbin 0.08pp · n=4 · 50.0% peak20.13ppbin 0.13pp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin 0.13pp · n=2 · 25.0% peak20.18ppbin 0.18pp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin 0.18pp · n=2 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.50 · kurt=-0.27 · near 20 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.32)
μ MEAN4.16¢95% CI: [4.03¢, 4.28¢]
σ STD DEV0.32ppσ² = 0.104 · CV = 7.76%
med MEDIAN4.15¢Q₁ 3.90¢ · Q₃ 4.30¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.00pp · IQR 0.40pp (1.349σ→0.44pp)
min 3.75¢Q₁ 3.90¢med 4.15¢Q₃ 4.30¢max 4.75¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.208approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.322platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.02
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.09
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.10
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.009within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.350lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.678persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-10.572significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.678
H = 0.678PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.009k=2-0.350k=3-0.041k=4+0.242k=5+0.0080+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.57)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.36high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.57)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID682710
SLUGwill-avigdor-lie…er-of-israel
CATEGORYPolitics
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (96¢)
PRIMARY · YES3.90¢implied prob 3.90% · decimal odds 25.64×
COUNTER · NO96.10¢implied prob 96.10% · decimal odds 1.04×
3.90¢
96.10¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME70.07k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY64.05k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (96¢)|primary − counter| = 0.922 · entropy 0.238 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 3.9%NO 96.1%YES p̂3.9%H = 0.238 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES25.64×(4¢)NO1.04×(96¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = -0.00%
K* full
-0.00%
½K half
-0.00%
¼K quarter
-0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.238 bits (24% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
193days
14hrs
33min
193.61 days·θ = 1.581 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 3.9%)
NO →$0.00(P = 96.1%)
current: $0.0390 · expected return per side: $0.96 on YES hit · $0.04 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+96.8dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.32% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 1.581 pp/day
now193.61d left
1.581 pp/day×1.00
−25%145.20d left
1.825 pp/day×1.15
−50%96.80d left
2.235 pp/day×1.41
−75%48.40d left
3.161 pp/day×2.00
−90%19.36d left
4.998 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.20% · worst -0.30% · typical |Δ| 0.09%BEARISH SESSION -0.65%BEST+0.20%1hWORST-0.30%6hTYPICAL |Δ|0.09%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.65%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.06% · Σ -0.40%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.20%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.05%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.65%+0.20%-0.80%0.20% · 1h0.20% · 1h0.20%1h★ BEST-0.10% · 2h-0.10% · 2h-0.10%2h-0.10% · 3h-0.10% · 3h-0.10%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.05% · 5h0.05% · 5h0.05%5h-0.30% · 6h-0.30% · 6h-0.30%6h▼ WORST-0.15% · 7h-0.15% · 7h-0.15%7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.15% · 9h0.15% · 9h0.15%9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h-0.15% · 11h-0.15% · 11h-0.15%11h0.05% · 12h0.05% · 12h0.05%12h0.05% · 13h0.05% · 13h0.05%13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h-0.30% · 15h-0.30% · 15h-0.30%15h-0.20% · 16h-0.20% · 16h-0.20%16h0.15% · 17h0.15% · 17h0.15%17h-0.15% · 18h-0.15% · 18h-0.15%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.10% · 22h0.10% · 22h0.10%22h0.05% · 23h0.05% · 23h0.05%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNuniform across sessionsRUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH33% up · 33% down · 33% flat
8 up bars · 8 down · best 0.20% · worst -0.30% · typical |Δ| 0.094%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.65%)FINAL-0.65%MAX DD-1.00%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.20%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9935 · peak 1.0020 · range [0.9920, 1.0020]1.00200.9920break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0020UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.00% · shallow0%-1.00%▼ TROUGH -1.00%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -1.00%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYshallow (max -1.00%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9935 (-0.65%) · max DD -1.00% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +4 / −14 (21% positive) · μ=-23.50 · σ=32.61UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 55.93 (+2.44σ vs μ)76.4238.210.00-38.21-76.42μ = -23.50-23.13-23.13-76.42-76.42-60.42-60.42-24.46-24.46-24.46-24.46-44.62-44.62-13.34-13.3415.8715.8715.8715.87-39.18-39.18-58.63-58.63-22.74-22.74-41.40-41.40-47.76-47.76-47.76-47.76-24.93-24.9315.1015.100.000.0055.9355.93v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 55.934 · range [-76.42, 55.93] · μ -23.499 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=12.3997 · σ=3.3167 · range [3.9154, 16.0527] · R²=0.161▼ FALLING -75.18%σ EXTREME 26.75%LAST 3.915416.052713.01849.98406.94973.9154μ = 12.3997max 16.0527min 3.9154dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.16μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 3.92% · range [3.92%, 16.05%] · μ 12.40% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.076 · σ=0.235CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.071 (+0.63σ vs μ)0.6840.3420.000-0.342-0.684μ = -0.076-0.232-0.232-0.067-0.067-0.123-0.1230.0910.0910.1240.1240.3180.318-0.114-0.114-0.126-0.126-0.092-0.092-0.117-0.1170.2640.2640.0820.082-0.170-0.170-0.308-0.308-0.121-0.121-0.684-0.684-0.380-0.3800.1430.1430.0710.071v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.071 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.1403
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5654
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.3472
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3752
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.2003
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6726
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.0351
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3006
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (11 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8236
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0063
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.7812
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4347
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.762 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.70e-6 · top T=4.00h (33.8%) · top-3 cover 62.6%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)6.9e-65.2e-63.4e-61.7e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 8.23e-7 · 4.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 8.23e-7 · 4.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.21e-6 · 15.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.21e-6 · 15.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.01e-7 · 2.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.01e-7 · 2.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.04e-8 · 0.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.04e-8 · 0.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.66e-6 · 13.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.66e-6 · 13.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.89e-6 · 33.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.89e-6 · 33.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.83e-8 · 0.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.83e-8 · 0.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.76e-6 · 8.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.76e-6 · 8.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.56e-6 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.56e-6 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.19e-6 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.19e-6 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.92e-7 · 2.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.92e-7 · 2.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.26e-6 · 6.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.26e-6 · 6.2% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=4.00h#2T=12.00h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.00h (freq 0.250) · concentrates 33.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.038e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 1752518 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 193.6 d · σ/bar 0.023pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 1.60ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0375 · n = 5000✓ n = 5000
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.023pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.12pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move194d
1.60pp
σ × √4646.5535275
Terminal variancebinary
0.0375
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
3.9¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.04pp · ES₉₅ 0.05pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 5000
VaR 95%
0.04pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.05pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
28.6pp
peak 5.3¢ → trough 3.8¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
3.9%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
25.641
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+2464
$100 wins $2464
FractionalUK
24.64 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$2464.10
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 3.9%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.238 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.238 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
4.68 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.06 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
105057524965982907913786325697426001538810836564004836999292309706852745390829
NO token ID
13887896800265966487014179943559375403384011039339488276489274832989862323735
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 09:26:32 UTC
Snapshot age
15.1s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 09:26:47 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
01614c8323fd68a1787baf276436a31dc68be48190e713b606b7c1787f86989c · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.3¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?6¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,522HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.28HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,723.8

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Politics

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.039000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1025.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.589
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.294
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-avigdor-lieberman-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0640726428.77bp0.10000021FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.21086144067.04bp0.61000060FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.643074154890.76bp0.93000089FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0020179482.70bp0.00100025FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0011999692.65bp0.00100025PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0011999692.65bp0.00100025PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
715.95%
σ per bar = 0.005408
Mean return (annualised)
-5016.74%
μ per bar = -0.000029
Sharpe (rf=0)
-7.01
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
28.57%
peak 0.05 → trough 0.04 over 381 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-avigdor-lieberman-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel/risk · same metrics, JSON