POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · POLITICS

Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

YES · live
0.7¢
NO · live
99.3¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-angela-rayner-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-in-2026-737 · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
19.85%
max drawdown
33.33%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
13.52%
RMS drawdown
pain index
8.96%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
29.71%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.80
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.80
upside/downside
roll spread
2.5 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1047
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-angela-rayner-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-in-2026-737/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.7¢
NO · live
99.3¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0065 · σ=0.0015 · range [0.0040, 0.0090] · R²=0.000▼ FALLING -17.65%σ EXTREME 22.67%LAST 0.00700.00900.00770.00650.00520.0040μ = 0.0065max 0.0090min 0.0040dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 0.70¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.7%NO 99.3%NO99.3%99.30¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.060 / 1.00 bits (6%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.7%0.7¢142.86×▬ +0.00pp
NO
99.3%99.3¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=135 · μ=5.6 · σ=9.2 · CV=1.64BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=17011233445μ = 64550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 135bp moved · peak 45bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.2s
▲YES mid
0.70¢ (0.70%)
▼NO mid
99.30¢ (99.30%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$24.1k
≋liquidity $
$36.0k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0065 · σ=0.0015 · range [0.0040, 0.0090] · R²=0.000▼ FALLING -17.65%σ EXTREME 22.67%LAST 0.00700.00900.00770.00650.00520.0040μ = 0.0065max 0.0090min 0.0040dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.70¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9935 · σ=0.0015 · range [0.9910, 0.9960] · R²=0.000▲ RISING +0.15%σ LOW 0.15%LAST 0.99300.99600.99480.99350.99220.9910μ = 0.9935max 0.9960min 0.9910dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.30¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0002 · σ=0.0010 · skew=3.49 (right-skewed) · kurt=12.46 (leptokurtic (fat tails))11863011-0.07ppbin -0.07pp · n=11 · 100.0% peakbin -0.07pp · n=11 · 100.0% peak10-0.02ppbin -0.02pp · n=10 · 90.9% peakbin -0.02pp · n=10 · 90.9% peak10.04ppbin 0.04pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 0.04pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak10.09ppbin 0.09pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 0.09pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak0.15pp0.20pp0.26pp0.31pp0.37pp10.42ppbin 0.42pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 0.42pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=3.20 · kurt=11.26 · near 10 / mid 12 / far 2 · OLS slope=0.78 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALTHIN LOWER TAIL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+2.25σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.10)
μ MEAN0.65¢95% CI: [0.59¢, 0.70¢]
σ STD DEV0.15ppσ² = 0.021 · CV = 22.67%
med MEDIAN0.70¢Q₁ 0.50¢ · Q₃ 0.75¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.50pp · IQR 0.25pp (1.349σ→0.20pp)
min 0.40¢Q₁ 0.50¢med 0.70¢Q₃ 0.75¢max 0.90¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.297approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.104platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.37
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.79
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.41
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.055within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.029lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.843strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.056fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.843
H = 0.843STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.055k=2-0.029k=3+0.064k=4-0.293k=5-0.0720+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.06)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.74very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.06)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1343456
SLUGwill-angela-rayn…-in-2026-737
CATEGORYPolitics
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (99¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.70¢implied prob 0.70% · decimal odds 142.86×
COUNTER · NO99.30¢implied prob 99.30% · decimal odds 1.01×
0.70¢
99.30¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME24.07k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY35.99k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (99¢)|primary − counter| = 0.986 · entropy 0.060 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.7%NO 99.3%YES p̂0.7%H = 0.060 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES142.86×(1¢)NO1.01×(99¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.060 bits (6% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
193days
11hrs
43min
193.49 days·θ = 0.717 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 0.7%)
NO →$0.00(P = 99.3%)
current: $0.0070 · expected return per side: $0.99 on YES hit · $0.01 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+96.7dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.15% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 0.717 pp/day
now193.49d left
0.717 pp/day×1.00
−25%145.12d left
0.828 pp/day×1.15
−50%96.74d left
1.014 pp/day×1.41
−75%48.37d left
1.435 pp/day×2.00
−90%19.35d left
2.268 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.45% · worst -0.10% · typical |Δ| 0.06%MILD BEARISH -0.15%BEST+0.45%17hWORST-0.10%1hTYPICAL |Δ|0.06%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.15%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.20%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.25%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.04% · Σ +0.35%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.15%+0.05%-0.45%-0.10% · 1h-0.10% · 1h-0.10%1h▼ WORST-0.05% · 2h-0.05% · 2h-0.05%2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h-0.05% · 7h-0.05% · 7h-0.05%7h-0.05% · 8h-0.05% · 8h-0.05%8h-0.05% · 9h-0.05% · 9h-0.05%9h-0.05% · 10h-0.05% · 10h-0.05%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h-0.10% · 13h-0.10% · 13h-0.10%13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.05% · 16h0.05% · 16h0.05%16h0.45% · 17h0.45% · 17h0.45%17h★ BEST-0.10% · 18h-0.10% · 18h-0.10%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h-0.10% · 21h-0.10% · 21h-0.10%21h-0.05% · 22h-0.05% · 22h-0.05%22h0.10% · 23h0.10% · 23h0.10%23h-0.05% · 24h-0.05% · 24h-0.05%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.35%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 4BREADTH13% up · 46% down · 42% flat
3 up bars · 11 down · best 0.45% · worst -0.10% · typical |Δ| 0.056%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.15%)FINAL-0.15%MAX DD-0.45%RECOVERYONGOING · 16 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.05%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9985 · peak 1.0005 · range [0.9955, 1.0005]1.00050.9955break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0005UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.45% · shallow0%-0.45%▼ TROUGH -0.45%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -0.45%bar 2-17 · 16 bars · recovered#2 -0.25%bar 19-25 · 7 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.45%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9985 (-0.15%) · max DD -0.45% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-40.69 · σ=55.71UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -22.83 (+0.32σ vs μ)120.8360.420.00-60.42-120.83μ = -40.69-55.93-55.93-60.42-60.42-60.42-60.42-85.44-85.44-120.83-120.83-120.83-120.83-120.83-120.83-103.61-103.61-76.42-76.42-55.93-55.93-15.87-15.8732.1532.1522.8322.8332.1532.1532.1532.1522.8322.8314.9314.93-30.86-30.86-22.83-22.83v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -22.835 · range [-120.83, 32.15] · μ -40.693 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=8.4383 · σ=7.3076 · range [2.4166, 19.5581] · R²=0.459▲ RISING +63.30%σ EXTREME 86.60%LAST 6.393719.558115.272710.98746.70202.4166μ = 8.4383max 19.5581min 2.4166dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.46μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 6.39% · range [2.42%, 19.56%] · μ 8.44% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.027 · σ=0.300MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.262 (-0.78σ vs μ)0.5000.2500.000-0.250-0.500μ = -0.0270.3570.357-0.083-0.0830.4170.4170.5000.5000.4170.417-0.083-0.0830.4170.417-0.127-0.127-0.433-0.433-0.357-0.357-0.075-0.0750.1140.114-0.238-0.238-0.285-0.285-0.285-0.285-0.202-0.202-0.158-0.158-0.152-0.152-0.262-0.262v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.262 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
251.4531
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.0755
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6910
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.1605
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2289
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.6155
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5383
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (5 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1708
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4078
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.1797
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8574
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.945 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.17e-6 · top T=6.00h (17.6%) · top-3 cover 46.6%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.5e-61.9e-61.2e-66.2e-70.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.06e-6 · 7.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.06e-6 · 7.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.48e-6 · 10.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.48e-6 · 10.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.96e-7 · 4.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.96e-7 · 4.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.47e-6 · 17.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.47e-6 · 17.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.00e-7 · 3.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.00e-7 · 3.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.77e-7 · 1.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.77e-7 · 1.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.17e-6 · 8.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.17e-6 · 8.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.34e-6 · 16.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.34e-6 · 16.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.72e-6 · 12.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.72e-6 · 12.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.54e-7 · 5.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.54e-7 · 5.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.00e-7 · 6.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.00e-7 · 6.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.44e-7 · 6.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.44e-7 · 6.0% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=6.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 6.00h (freq 0.167) · concentrates 17.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.400e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1047 bars · effective 1752713 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 193.5 d · σ/bar 0.015pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 1.02ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0070 · n = 1047✓ n = 1047
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.015pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.07pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move193d
1.02pp
σ × √4643.7252725
Terminal variancebinary
0.0070
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.7¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.02pp · ES₉₅ 0.03pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 1047
VaR 95%
0.02pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.03pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
33.3pp
peak 1.1¢ → trough 0.7¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.7%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
142.857
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+14186
$100 wins $14186
FractionalUK
141.86 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$14185.71
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.7%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.060 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.060 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
7.16 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.01 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
54066963382974859240347310461020134785981724636635890298517360968400982528991
NO token ID
341760906399923559682824982870791179504347648524865319277821837070071218382
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 12:16:25 UTC
Snapshot age
3.2s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 12:16:29 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
98b2b08b6bd2e6e243a59f9e9dc6b37c7fc1f21f0afb95e864bd92d937466afb · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?5¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,679HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$71.18HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,727.5

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Politics

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.007000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
5714.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.147
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.988
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-angela-rayner-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-in-2026-737/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.06693385618.88bp0.13000040FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.272007378581.80bp0.79000069FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.7546601068086.29bp0.980000103FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0011018427.57bp0.0010005PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0011018427.57bp0.0010005PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0011018427.57bp0.0010005PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,047 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
2342.86%
σ per bar = 0.017697
Mean return (annualised)
-22374.97%
μ per bar = -0.000128
Sharpe (rf=0)
-9.55
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
33.33%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 167 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-angela-rayner-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-in-2026-737/risk · same metrics, JSON