TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “fifa · cup · world” (44 markets)

Top terms: fifacupworldsportswin2026

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peert-statnVerdict
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?-4.236168▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?-4.187168▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?-2.890168no rejection · independent
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?-2.887168no rejection · independent
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?-2.867168no rejection · independent
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?-2.841168no rejection · independent
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?-2.823168no rejection · independent
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?-2.736168no rejection · independent

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-scotland-advance-to-the-knockout-stages-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
136.09%
max drawdown
4.32%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
2.11%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.07%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
4.32%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.43
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.43
upside/downside
roll spread
0.9 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
616
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-scotland-advance-to-the-knockout-stages-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →